Bracketology 2024

CoachHines3

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Seed list prediction for Saturday

1. Purdue
2. UConn
3. Houston
4. Arizona
5. Marquette
6. Tennessee
7. UNC
8. Baylor
9. Iowa St
10. KU
11. Alabama
12. Auburn
13. Duke
14. Wisconsin
15. Illinois
16. San Diego St
as much as we'd like to see kansas be #10 overall, i just don't see it. with wins over UCONN, Tennessee, Houston, and Kentucky (whose not great) they will be 6-9
 

dahliaclone

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i dont get the love for the 2nd column team. I mean, i do because of the name/coach.
I actually asked how KU was still considered a 2 seed on Twitter to one of the better Bracketologists and this is what they said...

'I wouldn't say Kansas has "horrible losses" - yes, they lost a game at West Virginia. But generally, Committee has rewarded top-tier wins. KU has victories over Connecticut, Tennessee and Houston - plus Baylor. KU's played a Top 10 schedule, too.'
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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I actually asked how KU was still considered a 2 seed on Twitter to one of the better Bracketologists and this is what they said...

'I wouldn't say Kansas has "horrible losses" - yes, they lost a game at West Virginia. But generally, Committee has rewarded top-tier wins. KU has victories over Connecticut, Tennessee and Houston - plus Baylor. KU's played a Top 10 schedule, too.'

This is why I argue that you just can't weigh the non con like you used to. NIL and huge transfer numbers have completely changed the chemistry for teams early in the season.
 
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CoachHines3

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I actually asked how KU was still considered a 2 seed on Twitter to one of the better Bracketologists and this is what they said...

'I wouldn't say Kansas has "horrible losses" - yes, they lost a game at West Virginia. But generally, Committee has rewarded top-tier wins. KU has victories over Connecticut, Tennessee and Houston - plus Baylor. KU's played a Top 10 schedule, too.'
They'll get a 2 seed and get to the 2nd weekend and everyone will be able to justify their 2 seed after beating up on a 15 and a 7/10.
 

Big_Sill

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i dont get the love for the 2nd column team. I mean, i do because of the name/coach.
Did you answer your own question in your next post? "wins over UCONN, Tennessee, Houston, and Kentucky"
 

danvillecyclone

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I could see something like

1.) Purdue, UCONN, Houston, Arizona,
2.) Marquette, Tennessee, Iowa State, UNC

or flip flop UNC/Iowa State. It'll be close but still think we'll be on the 3 line.
2-3 are very similar. Need to stay on the 3 line or above. Which is insanely impressive for a team.

The 4’s and 5’s get the 1 seed.

Although this year that may not matter as much.
 
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CoachHines3

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Did you answer your own question in your next post? "wins over UCONN, Tennessee, Houston, and Kentucky"
Q1 win is a Q1 win, still. Beating Houston/UCONN at home shouldn't hold more weight than say, us beating Houston/Kansas at home.

Beating Tennessee/Kentucky on a neutral floor is, OK.

Like @dahliaclone said, seems the committee gives more weight to your wins than your bad lossess and that's why we'll see KU as a 2/3.
 
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CyPunch

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Guessing Baylor seeded above us.

Pretty similar profiles right now. I think Baylor edges us out though.

They have a couple nice OOC wins (Auburn, Florida) that we do not. I am fine with how we scheduled but that comes into play when you're comparing to the very best teams/resumes in the country.

One thing in our favor is we have 3 better road wins than Baylor or KU's best road win.

A win Saturday only enhances our profile. Another Quad 1 opportunity.
 
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CyPunch

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They'll get a 2 seed and get to the 2nd weekend and everyone will be able to justify their 2 seed after beating up on a 15 and a 7/10.

I think Kansas would be wise to get McCullar back to as close to 100% as he can and then roll with your 6 man rotation in the tournament. You don't necessarily need depth in March like you do to make it through the grind of the Big 12.

They might fall closer to a 4 than a 2 if they can't turn things around on Saturday in Norman.
 

Big_Sill

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Q1 win is a Q1 win, still. Beating Houston/UCONN at home shouldn't hold more weight than say, us beating Houston/Kansas at home.

Beating Tennessee/Kentucky on a neutral floor is, OK.

Like @dahliaclone said, seems the committee gives more weight to your wins than your bad lossess and that's why we'll see KU as a 2/3.
Right, you said you don't understand, but it seems like you very much do understand... you just don't like it (fair).
 

danvillecyclone

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Q1 win is a Q1 win, still. Beating Houston/UCONN at home shouldn't hold more weight than say, us beating Houston/Kansas at home.

Beating Tennessee/Kentucky on a neutral floor is, OK.

Like @dahliaclone said, seems the committee gives more weight to your wins than your bad lossess and that's why we'll see KU as a 2/3.
I think they say whatever narrative fits their decision of seeding.

It happens every year.

Qualification for seeding isn’t standard.

It ebbs and flows to get the seeds they want and have 15 prepared bullet points to support the seeding.
 
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jctisu

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It's extremely close between Iowa State and Kansas IMO because Kansas' wins over Houston and UConn (don't care they were at the Phog) are the two best wins in the country. HOWEVER, I think the entire resume stills favors Iowa State ever so slightly and a simple tiebreaker between the two is the fact we beat Kansas H2H and are currently higher in the Big 12 standings. I know conference standings don't really matter but if I were a committee member and it was between two teams from the same conference for a spot, I would look at H2H and conference finish as my tiebreaker personally.
 
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danvillecyclone

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It's extremely close between Iowa State and Kansas IMO because Kansas' wins over Houston and UConn (don't care they were at the Phog) are the two best wins in the country. HOWEVER, I think the entire resume stills favors Iowa State ever so slightly and a simple tiebreaker between the two is the fact we beat Kansas H2H and are currently higher in the Big 12 standings. I know conference standings don't really matter but if I were a committee member and it was between two teams from the same conference for a spot, I would look at H2H and conference finish as my tiebreaker personally.
Let’s assume Iowa State wins out at home.

Which would be a remarkable feat even from here on out.

The swing games, in conference, will be at UCF and at K-State, which KU lost both.

Seems like the season is winding down, but we are just getting started!

Playing meaningful games in Mid-February and on is what it’s all about.
 

clone52

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It's extremely close between Iowa State and Kansas IMO because Kansas' wins over Houston and UConn (don't care they were at the Phog) are the two best wins in the country. HOWEVER, I think the entire resume stills favors Iowa State ever so slightly and a simple tiebreaker between the two is the fact we beat Kansas H2H and are currently higher in the Big 12 standings. I know conference standings don't really matter but if I were a committee member and it was between two teams from the same conference for a spot, I would look at H2H and conference finish as my tiebreaker personally.
Our win against Houston counteracts their win. At that point, I guess you could say their win against UConn is better than our win against Kansas. Kansas also has wins against Tennessee and Kentucky. Its probably fair to say that Kansas should be a little higher seed than Iowa State, but the head to head could flip it if you wanted to make that argument.
 
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Cyowa 14

THE Iowa State University Class of 2014
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blind test

View attachment 124057

who would deserve a better seed right now based off these metrics
Not a big deal but i keep seeing Kansas's record on ken pom and net rankings etc. as 18-6 like above, they are 19-6. Do they have a non D1 win im not seeing or something?
 

Dale

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blind test

who would deserve a better seed right now based off these metrics
This is not the answer you're going for, but I think it's a very close call. The committee looks at good victories above all, so I think we need to get into the nitty gritty:

TEAM A
quad 1aquad 1bquad 2aquad 2b
win, H 1
win, @ 31
win, @ 37
win, @ 39

loss, @ 9
loss, @ 12
loss, @ 33
win, H 17

loss, N 43
win, H 39
win, N 72

loss, N 61
win, H 69

TEAM B
quad 1aquad 1bquad 2aquad 3
win, H 1
win, H 4
win, N 7
win, H 12
win, N 24

loss, @ 8
loss, N 10
loss, @ 26
loss, @ 66win, H 33
win, H 37
win, H 39
win, @ 99

loss, @ 77
loss, @ 155

Team B has somewhat better wins, but probably somewhat worse losses (especially that quad 3 one). Like I said, it's close, but I'd probably agree with the majority of bracketologists and put Team B above Team A. For now.