Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
It wouldn’t necessarily. I’m just looking at current trends where, as a 3, we’re almost locked into the Midwest, and nearly everyone has us playing in Omaha. If we make it up to the 2 line, we’re practically locked into Omaha no matter what. However, unless we get ahead of Marquette, we’re probably getting shipped out of the Midwest, which puts the East on the table.
North Carolina will go East as a 2 seed. We will be either in the South or West if we are behind Marquette. Most likely the West.
I’m only saying it’s on the table. We’re probably going to be put in whatever region Houston is not, and while it’s likely UNC (or Tennessee) would likely end up in the East, it’s not entirely out of the question we get put there.
Now assume UNC is a 1-seed: Houston probably goes South; UNC goes West. Tennessee goes South; Arizona goes West; Marquette goes Midwest… and ISU goes East.
Some possible 6/7 seeds we could get paired with: Washington State (#36), Saint Mary's (#21), Utah State (#43), South Carolina (#46), Florida (#28), Colorado St (#33), Dayton (#25), Clemson (#24).
KenPom ranks in parentheses.
I think South Carolina, Utah St, or Washington St would be good draws. Would prefer to avoid St Mary's. Clemson and Dayton are on the 5 line most places right now but it's close.
South Carolina - Impressive resume and continue to win despite the predictive metrics being low on them. Fairly balanced offense/defense team. 56th ranked offensive team that does attempt a lot of 3's but is just an average eFG% team. Don't get to the line much. Best offensive trait is offensive rebound %. Defensively they lack rim protection and don't turn teams over at all though they manage to be respectable defensively ranking 43rd in AdjD. Not much size as a team and their main big isn't very athletic at 6'8" though he's an effective offensive player who can stretch the floor - BJ Mack former Wofford teammate of Jackson Paveletzke. 351st in tempo so one of the slowest teams in the country.
Utah St - 1st year head coach who is in NCOY consideration along with Otz. Another balanced offense/defense team. Ranked 42nd offensively. Shoot the 3 really poorly (294th in 3PT%) but score super effectively inside the arc (13th in 2PT%). Turn it over at an average rate but get to the line fairly frequently where they are a below average FT shooting team. Defensively ranked 48th. Don't turn teams over much but really good defensive rebounding. 2nd nationally only to Houston in 3PT% but do not defend inside the arc well at all (277th in 2PT% defense). Best win out of conference was against San Francisco on a neutral floor. Did not play a Power 5 team all year but do have some good MWC wins (mostly at home).
Washington St - One of the better stories in college basketball this year. Beat Arizona twice. Better defensive (#27) than offensive team (#49). Offensively they're kind of just solid at everything across the board. Don't take a lot of 3PT shots (310th nationally in 3PT attempt rate). 310th in tempo so like to play slow. Don't turn teams over much defensively but do a nice job on the glass and are 25th nationally in eFG% allowed. Have a couple near 7 footers with high block rates. Defensive philosophy seems to be to run teams off the 3PT line and funnel things towards the rim. Their front court is what carries their team. Isaac Jones is a 6'9" transfer from Idaho who is a really efficient player in the post. Looks like he can step out and hit some mid range shots and shoots a good % at the line as well. Jaylen Wells is a stretch wing shooting over 44% from 3PT on the year. Really good offensive player that would be a tough assignment.
6/7 seed range teams but won't get paired due to Big 12 affiliation: BYU, Texas Tech
KenPom ranks in parentheses.
I think South Carolina, Utah St, or Washington St would be good draws. Would prefer to avoid St Mary's. Clemson and Dayton are on the 5 line most places right now but it's close.
South Carolina - Impressive resume and continue to win despite the predictive metrics being low on them. Fairly balanced offense/defense team. 56th ranked offensive team that does attempt a lot of 3's but is just an average eFG% team. Don't get to the line much. Best offensive trait is offensive rebound %. Defensively they lack rim protection and don't turn teams over at all though they manage to be respectable defensively ranking 43rd in AdjD. Not much size as a team and their main big isn't very athletic at 6'8" though he's an effective offensive player who can stretch the floor - BJ Mack former Wofford teammate of Jackson Paveletzke. 351st in tempo so one of the slowest teams in the country.
Utah St - 1st year head coach who is in NCOY consideration along with Otz. Another balanced offense/defense team. Ranked 42nd offensively. Shoot the 3 really poorly (294th in 3PT%) but score super effectively inside the arc (13th in 2PT%). Turn it over at an average rate but get to the line fairly frequently where they are a below average FT shooting team. Defensively ranked 48th. Don't turn teams over much but really good defensive rebounding. 2nd nationally only to Houston in 3PT% but do not defend inside the arc well at all (277th in 2PT% defense). Best win out of conference was against San Francisco on a neutral floor. Did not play a Power 5 team all year but do have some good MWC wins (mostly at home).
Washington St - One of the better stories in college basketball this year. Beat Arizona twice. Better defensive (#27) than offensive team (#49). Offensively they're kind of just solid at everything across the board. Don't take a lot of 3PT shots (310th nationally in 3PT attempt rate). 310th in tempo so like to play slow. Don't turn teams over much defensively but do a nice job on the glass and are 25th nationally in eFG% allowed. Have a couple near 7 footers with high block rates. Defensive philosophy seems to be to run teams off the 3PT line and funnel things towards the rim. Their front court is what carries their team. Isaac Jones is a 6'9" transfer from Idaho who is a really efficient player in the post. Looks like he can step out and hit some mid range shots and shoots a good % at the line as well. Jaylen Wells is a stretch wing shooting over 44% from 3PT on the year. Really good offensive player that would be a tough assignment.
6/7 seed range teams but won't get paired due to Big 12 affiliation: BYU, Texas Tech
am i incorrect that they seed the field 1-68? they try to do the regional matchups based on those seeds, where teams can get put to a different region based or moved up or down a line due to the conference rules, but if houston is supposed to play the weakest 2 or strongest three they would have the 8 and 9 seeded teams to do that.
Clemson - so we can shut their coach up
Amazing how much better hobbyists on the Internet are at supposed professionals sometimes. And not just when it comes to college basketball and bracketology projections here.
Got mine 3 weeks ago for about 80 bucks each session. They price will go up the closer it gets imo.
This. Guessing the correct 68 teams who make the tourney is incredibly easy. Getting them seeded correctly, and located correctly is not as easy.
I got them off Tickemaster, they were fan-fan resale tickets as I think it's sold out.
I think UNC has a shot at a 1 seed, but they need to close strong and AZ needs to trip. Likely UNC would get shipped to the West in that case, although maybe South, and Houston gets sent west.
Agree we really need to get/stay ahead of Marquette. They are at Creighton, host UConn, and then at Xavier (who they just boatraced and maybe X will want revenge?)
Guess I wouldn't hate it if they lost all those...
I honestly have no idea how much better or worse Lunardi would be if he were independent as opposed to writing for ESPN, but TBF he does have the “ESPN voice” speaking in his head - and, as we all know, unless you’re SVP (or Fraschilla as he’s the voice of the Big 12 for ESPN) you don’t get to have takes that stray from the corporate opinions - and Lunardi’s projections ALWAYS have clear ESPN bias to them.
As far as Palm, I think he’s just that bad at his job. Sure, just like with ESPN there also is a “CBS voice”, but it’s not nearly as strict as ESPN’s, and one thing for sure is the individual writers for CBS are impressed with the Big 12 as a whole and ISU in particular. I mean, when notable ISU hater Seth Davis has nothing but kind things to say about ISU, you know that overall they’re impressed with us.
The conflicts of interest within the ESPN empire are mindboggling at this point.
Thank goodness there are a few guys with individual brands big enough (SVP) to call the Big Ten and SEC on their nonsense or they've always been Big 12 guys for good reason (Fran).
If Houston is the overall #1 seed they’re not getting shipped West. In fact, unless something strange happens, I think you can guarantee UConn is in the East, Purdue is in the Midwest, and Houston is in the South as it’s likely those will be the top 3 #1 seeds, and be it Arizona or UNC (or even if Tennessee gets hot and gets the #1), they’re not going to top the other 3 and will get sent out West.
So what would be an example of a clear recurring ESPN bias displayed by Lunardi?
Regarding Palm, he likes to agitate a certain segment of fans on a weekly basis. He appears to be currently doing that to Big East fans with is his existing omission of Providence and Villanova while inexplicably including Colorado and Utah. He generally returns to rational normalcy by Selection Sunday.
Unless there are upsets in conference tournaments with a truly low ranked team winning. Then they might have 2 teams from a lower conference in.
The clearest indicator is he still has KU as a 2. Then there’s Alabama and potentially Duke rated ahead of us. Then there’s Wisconsin being seeded as a 5.
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