My updated bracket for March 1 as of the games completed last night.
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- My original bracket had Wisconsin as the 6-seed in Iowa State's pod, but due to Florida already playing Baylor and Alabama, I had to re-arrange a bit. But something to keep in mind with Wisconsin's profile worsening in the last few weeks that a rematch from two seasons ago is possible.
- Iowa State is as close to Kansas yet in my projections for that last 2-seed. If ISU wins out and KU loses to Baylor and Houston, they'll pass Kansas. But do be aware that Baylor winning out could easily have them pass Iowa State.
- If Kansas beats Baylor Saturday, it improves ISU's odds for Omaha and decreases their odds for a 2-seed.
- If Baylor wins, Omaha competition gets stiffer while 2-seed odds increase.
- If ISU loses at UCF and Baylor wins, that's a worst-case scenario for both.
- I keep seeing national publications have Marquette getting the Midwest over North Carolina or Tennessee (if either or both of them are 2-seeds). Unless Marquette passes UNC or Tennessee in the seed list, based on what the NCAA bracketing principles say, UNC or Tennessee closest regional site is the Midwest. Chapel Hill and Knoxville are closer to Detroit than they are to Boston or Dallas.
- This also related to ISU. If ISU gets up to that 2-seed line, say goodbye to Detroit and say hello to Los Angeles or Boston.
- This is not ISU related, but we're entering a situation where it's feasibly possible for a potential Pitino vs. Pitino matchup in Dayton. I have both New Mexico and St. John's in my Last 4 In group right now. Typically, they have the first two of the Last 4 In play each other and the last two play each other. I've never understood that; it should be 1v4 and 2v3 but whatever. Either way, the NCAA should ignore all bracketing principles to give us father vs. son if both schools are in Dayton.
If Iowa State keeps winning and Baylor keeps winning, they could pass us, but I don't think it would impact our Omaha chances. You would still need Alabama and Kansas to be ahead of Iowa State.
Lets say Baylor, Alabama, Auburn and Iowa State all win out (pre-conference tournament). I think Iowa State would jump Kansas and there is no worry. But if Kansas stays ahead of Iowa State, I can't see both Baylor and Alabama jumping Iowa State.
Iowa State would be 8-4 Q1 and 6-2 Q2.
Baylor would be 8-7 and 6-1
Kansas would be 7-7 and 6-0 (but a quad 3 loss as well). They would have to win @houston which I can't see happening.
Alabama would be 5-7 and 8-1.
Auburn would be 1-7 and 8-0.
Just looking at that, I think Iowa State would be ahead of everyone. Sure, Baylor, Kansas and Alabama have played more top teams, but Iowa State has just as many Quad 1 wins as anyone else in fewer opportunities.
Maybe quad 1a vs 1b would come into play.
Iowa State would be 4-3 in 1a and 4-1 in 1b.
Alabama would be 4-5 in 1a and 1-1 in 1b.
Kansas would be 6-4 in 1a and 1-3 in quad 1b
Baylor would be 5-6 in 1a and 3-1 in quad 1b.
Strictly looking at that, Alabama, Kansas and Baylor have played a harder schedule, but a 4-3 quad 1b record is not a small sample size. I think if they put Alabama #1 (which I don't think is a given) and Baylor behind them because of head to head with ISU, they'd have to put ISU ahead of KU for the same reason.
You are probably right that Omaha is a little more likely with a KU win over Baylor.
Also, Marquette also likely loses 2 more games. They'd be 5-5 in quad 1a, 1-2 in 1b and 6-1 in quad 2. Not that Marquette dropping helps for Omaha, but it does open up Indy as a fallback.
