Bracketology 2024

HFCS

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I think you can say the same thing about a lot of accomplishments. I just don't think it's going to have a major impact on the trajectory of the program whether we get a 1 or a 2 seed tomorrow. If you disagree thats fine. Agree to disagree.

Since there’s no way they’d put us near Houston for another rematch, I just want to avoid UConn in the east.

Really any other situation is going to be fine given we’ve locked in 6th/7th overall as the lowest we could be slotted.
 

alarson

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Earlier someone (Marmot?) posted correlations on seeding with different metrics. The avg of KP and SOR was the most correlated. Here is that avg and the ensuing seed- note this does NOT include todays game for the SOR - so it will only get better for ISU and worse for UNC.

I think they have a legit shot at a 1 seed.

View attachment 125743

Will be interesting when SOR updates.

Because it generally tracks pretty well with torvik's WAB i think (they're similar measurements, one being based on the average top 25 team and WAB being bubble teams), and WAB moved us above UNC
 

NorthCyd

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Can’t predict about the trajectory but it’s certainly a huge wall to break down in CBB. Would be interested to see what the last 10 years of 1 seeds looks like. It can’t be a large group.
Yeah, but still you are saying that a 1 seed is more an indicator that you have arrived, not something that gets you there, and I agree with that. I don't think this is the last time TJ will have us in contention for a 1 seed. Even if it doesn't happen tomorrow we will get one if the current trajectory continues.
 

jdoggivjc

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Just the fact alone that it seems we're seriously in the conversation for the final #1 seed after midnight going into Selection Sunday is something we could only dream of even a week ago after that loss to K-State. I honestly thought that loss eliminated us from that conversation.

What a wild ride this week has been. Just about everything fell ISU's way this week.
 

alarson

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Just the fact alone that it seems we're seriously in the conversation for the final #1 seed after midnight going into Selection Sunday is something we could only dream of even a week ago after that loss to K-State. I honestly thought that loss eliminated us from that conversation.

What a wild ride this week has been. Just about everything fell ISU's way this week.

Right. Its absolutely surreal feeling.

Hell, I think the final AP poll comes out monday (it typically comes out after the conference tournaments). It seems pretty likely we'll rise to our highest finish in the AP poll ever.

3 years after we went 2-22.
 

twincyties

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Right. Its absolutely surreal feeling.

Hell, I think the final AP poll comes out monday (it typically comes out after the conference tournaments). It seems pretty likely we'll rise to our highest finish in the AP poll ever.

3 years after we went 2-22.
To that point, are we #2 after UConn?

Going to jump Arizona and Tennessee after losses to unranked teams early in their tourneys. That would put us to 5.

Media has a huge hard on for UNC lately but losing to a team that was otherwise not going to the tourney should drop them.

Purdue loses to unranked Wisconsin.

And, well, we pretty much just ran Houston out of the gym.

Out of the top 7 I’d say we had the most impressive last 72 hours, but UConn handled their business as deserves to be number one.
 
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alarson

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To that point, are we #2 after UConn?

Going to jump Arizona and Tennessee after losses to unranked teams early in their tourneys. That would put us to 5.

Media has a huge hard on for UNC lately but losing to a team that was otherwise not going to the tourney should drop them.

Purdue loses to unranked Wisconsin.

And, well, we pretty much just ran Houston out of the gym.

Out of the top 7 I’d say we had the most impressive last 72 hours, but UConn handled their business as deserves to be number one.

That's a good question.

It might depend how much cue the voters take from the selections as well.

Id guess Its UConn\Purdue\Houston (close loss beats big loss even if close loss was to worse team) then ISU, but i could see UNC getting 4 if they get the 4th 1 seed too.
 

alarson

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Yeah, his bracket is pretty trash overall.

Also - are the play-in games really going to be on the 10 line? That's crazy-high.

With the amount of bid stealers we've seen, is that removing some 11 seed at larges thus pushing the last 4 in up to the 10 line?
 
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Stormin

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That's a good question.

It might depend how much cue the voters take from the selections as well.

Id guess Its UConn\Purdue\Houston (close loss beats big loss even if close loss was to worse team) then ISU, but i could see UNC getting 4 if they get the 4th 1 seed too.

North Carolina lost to a team that had to win the ACC Tournament to get an NCAA bid. No way they deserve a #1 after that. No way.
 

twincyties

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That's a good question.

It might depend how much cue the voters take from the selections as well.

Id guess Its UConn\Purdue\Houston (close loss beats big loss even if close loss was to worse team) then ISU, but i could see UNC getting 4 if they get the 4th 1 seed too.
Will be interesting to see how they align or diverge. One is meant to be an “at this moment” ranking and the other a “strength of resume”.
 

jdoggivjc

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With the amount of bid stealers we've seen, is that removing some 11 seed at larges thus pushing the last 4 in up to the 10 line?

I mean the 11s (as Lunardi has them) are NCST, Oregon, James Madison, and Drake; and the 12s are Grand Canyon, McNeese, Samford, and VCU, so bid-stealing has to be the reason.
 
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jdoggivjc

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We agree on this.

I don't know if i have faith in the committee though.

To me it's not so much that UNC lost to an NCST team that had to win 5 games just to qualify for the Tournament - it's when you combine it with what we did to Houston and the fact that the resumes are comparable, if not slightly in favor of ISU, that putting UNC on the 1 line is because of the name on the front of the jersey.