Bracketology 2024

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We'll be in the west region as the worst #1 or best #2.

If we are the best 2 we will be in the Midwest.

 

[mctallerton]

And i would think the committee would have better judgement than that

You can think that, but they will do it, pods are set by seed and geographic proximity. If we are a 2 and Nebraska is the last 7, as long as none of the first three 7s have Omaha as their closest pod they would get placed here. If they were the first 7 (they aren't) they would get placed here.

 

[cyclonestunners]

I think (only a guess but competitive guys do competitive things) TJ finds things to motivate them and I can see him using the 2 seed as a slant.

Fwiw I think we have that motivation either way. Either we aren't a 1 seed, or plenty of people say we didn't deserve a 1 seed if we are. Either way, bulletin board material!

 

[clone52]

Were ISU and UNC considered close a week ago? I thought we were pushing for a 2 seed at best.

And North Carolina was around #6 overall. Early losses by Arizona/Tennessee pushed them up.

Iowa State got 2 Q1a wins and a Q2a win.
UNC got a Q1b win, a Q2b win and a Q2a loss

Thats a pretty significant change.
Teams 5-8 or 9 are really, really close.

 

[clone37]

I say give me the 1 seed. This opportunity doesn't come around too often. Would be so cool to be on that list. Metrics slightly favor ISU over UNC and ISU has a better record against the other 1 seeds. If UNC gets it, the only reason will be the blue blood goggles.

 

[clone52]

They definitely try to avoid it but at times their hands are also tied due to conference rematches etc. With that being said, Nebby isn’t getting Omaha.

There is NOTHING in their principles that show they try to avoid it. Absolutely nothing.

If it looks like they avoid it, its because some other principle is avoiding it.

 

[burn587]

Excuse my ignorance, I'm kinda new to this one seed two seed mumbo-jumbo, but supposedly there is a chance we can be a one seed playing in Western Omaha?

One seed yes, playing in Omaha yes. Playing in western Omaha-no. The Qwest center is about as east in Omaha as you can get.

 

[Cyhig]

You can think that, but they will do it, pods are set by seed and geographic proximity. If we are a 2 and Nebraska is the last 7, as long as none of the first three 7s have Omaha as their closest pod they would get placed here. If they were the first 7 (they aren't) they would get placed here.

Only the top 4 seeds are seeded by proximity. And even then it’s not guaranteed a team seeded 3 or 4 will get their closest location. If two other programs are above them on the seed line and that location is the closest to them, then a 3 or 4 seed will be moved elsewhere

 

[WastedTalent]

I would absolutely normally agree with you but yesterday was different and I think will really make it hard for the committee to find much difference between UNC and ISUs resume. I agree that in the end we will be a 2 seed still but I think we improved from 7-8 overall to 5-6 at the worst now.

The biggest difference between UNC and Iowa St is non con strength of schedule. UNC was 26. Iowa St was 324. The committee always puts an emphasis on the non con because they want big matchups on the non con, and they're not about to start rewarding teams that don't schedule tough games for 1/3 of the season.

 

[clone52]

BPI and SOR were updated. Iowa State ahead of North Carolina in both. 4th in SOR and 6th in BPI.

 

[clone52]

The biggest difference between UNC and Iowa St is non con strength of schedule. UNC was 26. Iowa St was 324. The committee always puts an emphasis on the non con because they want big matchups on the non con, and they're not about to start rewarding teams that don't schedule tough games for 1/3 of the season.

The committee doesn't always put an emphasis on the non con. It comes into play on the bubble because teams are SO close. Can also come into play on the seed lines if teams are super close.

Iowa State is ahead of North Carolina in KenPom, BPI, SOR, probably KPI, overall SOS has more Q1 wins, more Q1a wins, better losses. The ONLY thing UNC has on us is non-con SOS and that won't keep them ahead of us.

 

[mb7299]

Maybe some has answered this already but what did we end up with metric wise for offense? Just curious because of the metrics of finishing in top 40 for both offense and defense.

 

[Cyhig]

The committee doesn't always put an emphasis on the non con. It comes into play on the bubble because teams are SO close. Can also come into play on the seed lines if teams are super close.

Iowa State is ahead of North Carolina in KenPom, BPI, SOR, probably KPI, overall SOS has more Q1 wins, more Q1a wins, better losses. The ONLY thing UNC has on us is non-con SOS and that won't keep them ahead of us.

UNC has a better Q1 record though (9-3) and a road win at Duke.

I think ISU is better than UNC, but the committee likes wins away from home. I will be shocked if UNC isn’t a one seed.

 

[Clonehomer]

The biggest difference between UNC and Iowa St is non con strength of schedule. UNC was 26. Iowa St was 324. The committee always puts an emphasis on the non con because they want big matchups on the non con, and they're not about to start rewarding teams that don't schedule tough games for 1/3 of the season.

Which is stupid because UNC gets invited to all the blue blood preseason tournaments hosted by ESPN. Most schools don’t have those opportunities. Of course MSU, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, and UNC are going to have tougher NC schedules. Everyone else has to guess years in advance which tournament to play in without knowing who will be there.

 

[mctallerton]

Only the top 4 seeds are seeded by proximity. And even then it’s not guaranteed a team seeded 3 or 4 will get their closest location. If two other programs are above them on the seed line and that location is the closest to them, then a 3 or 4 seed will be moved elsewhere

Those are seeded first, but they follow the same principles for 5-16, similarly I would expect Gonzaga to be in Spokane or BYU in SLC if they can get matched up with the respective seeds

 

[clone52]

UNC has a better Q1 record though (9-3) and a road win at Duke.

I think ISU is better than UNC, but the committee likes wins away from home. I will be shocked if UNC isn’t a one seed.

I wouldn't be shocked either, but I think Iowa State is more likely. Best road win and non-con SOS are the only things they have on us.

 

[clone52]

Those are seeded first, but they follow the same principles for 5-16

The top 5 seed gets its closest location as long as it doesn't break the other principles. Often times those other rules prevent it. For example, if Iowa State is #1 in teh west and BYU is the top #5 seed, they would not get placed in the west.

 

[Hoggins]

I think (only a guess but competitive guys do competitive things) TJ finds things to motivate them and I can see him using the 2 seed as a slant.

Just show a replay of the Pitt game last year. They have motivation

 

[Cyowa 14]

The biggest difference between UNC and Iowa St is non con strength of schedule. UNC was 26. Iowa St was 324. The committee always puts an emphasis on the non con because they want big matchups on the non con, and they're not about to start rewarding teams that don't schedule tough games for 1/3 of the season.

You are definitely right, it's insane to me that our non con SOS is 324 and our overall SOS is 36. Replace the DePaul game with a better big East team and I really don't know why we would schedule any tougher than we did if our overall SOS ends up in the 30s

 

[mctallerton]

The top 5 seed gets its closest location as long as it doesn't break the other principles. Often times those other rules prevent it. For example, if Iowa State is #1 in teh west and BYU is the top #5 seed, they would not get placed in the west.

That was my reference to principles, but having only played BYU twice this season couldn't we by rule meet in the sweet 16 if it had to happen?