***2025 Minnesota Vikings***

[drmwevr08]

Don’t know. They don’t release the scores of those tests that measure football IQ.

You'd rely on that and not the tape of them actually playing football?

 

[Cyhig]

You'd rely on that and not the tape of them actually playing football?

Both. But many people get carried away with physical attributes at the QB position. Just because a QB may be fast/mobile with a strong arm does not mean they will be successful in the NFL. Successful QB's in the NFL know how to read defensive coverage, identify the coverage at the line of scrimmage/right after the snap, understand route concepts. throw the ball on time, and accurate enough to allow the receiver to make a play after he catches the ball. Most of those attributes are not physical attributes

 

[Marcelason78]

I have a co worker convinced that the reason that harbaugh has been talking up JJ McCarthy so much is because he knows he isn’t an NFL quarterback and wants the Vikings to blow it and draft him.

Could be. PA’s take is that Harbaugh loves kid, wants him to succeed, and knows the Vikings give him the best chance of doing that right now.

 

[Cyforce]

Guessing it's a bitter pill but time has shown this division only has one team that's shown the ability to draft QBs.

 

[clonehenge]

Don't love this if it's true...what's a haul?

 

[RotatingColumn]

To be fair though, there are far more late round draft busts than first round draft busts. Brady and Purdy are exceptions. There will always be exceptions when trying to evaluate talent. There's also no guarantee the DT or Edge (or any other position) will be a pro bowl player. In 2015 the Vikings selected Trae Waynes #11 overall, a CB from Michigan State. That's probably an exception! Point being, nobody knows how a player will pan out when you draft them

Yep, which is why you should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one for the same amount of $$.

 

[clonehenge]

Yep, which is why you should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one for the same amount of $$.

Hembo from ESPN broke down 1st round picks by hit rate. He considered "hit rate" to be if the player signed a second contract with the same team. QB was 5th highest hit rate.



Also, I posted this awhile back about rookie salaries vs veteran salaries and QB had the largest disparity so it made the most sense to try and hit on a rookie QB.

Bill Barnwell has a great article on ESPN where he breaks down the QB drafts over the years. He theorizes that teams feel that with the slotted contracts for rookies it makes the most economical sense to try and swing for the fences on QBs in the first round.

When you compare rookie salaries with average veteran salaries by position there's the largest discrepancy at QB. He says if teams think there's a 20% chance a QB will be a quality starter, it's worth the risk. He compared that to RB, where teams would have to feel there's an 80% chance for a RB to be a starter to make it worthwhile.

If a team can hit on a rookie QB in the draft, they're saving themselves a crapton of money for 4-5 years that they can spend at other positions.

So if they Vikes use their two 1st rounders this year and maybe next year's 3rd rounder to move up, I'm all for it. If they have to use next year's 1st, that may be too much for me.

But the Vikes may see it as when will the QB talent pool be this good again and will they have enough ammo in the future to move up (unless they tank)? Probably not next year (QB pool looks pretty bad), which means they'll be 2 years behind.

 

[Cyhig]

Yep, which is why you should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one for the same amount of $$.

But you can’t buy a proven QB at the price of a rookie contract. 39% of QBs drafted in the first round sign a second contract with the team that drafted them. That is a low percentage. But teams that do “hit” on drafting a QB are set for many, many years to come at the most important position in all of sports. It’s worth the gamble. And they get 4 or so years of great QB play at a very, very cheap price

 

[RotatingColumn]

Hembo from ESPN broke down 1st round picks by hit rate. He considered "hit rate" to be if the player signed a second contract with the same team. QB was 5th highest hit rate.

View attachment 128178

Also, I posted this awhile back about rookie salaries vs veteran salaries and QB had the largest disparity so it made the most sense to try and hit on a rookie QB.

Hmm.. ok so I was wrong. Allow me to rephrase what I said:
Yep, which is why you the Vikings should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one the Packers QB for the same amount of $$.

 

[AuH2O]

Yep, which is why you should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one for the same amount of $$.

That doesn't work.

You win a SB one of three ways:
- Have a good QB on a rookie deal that allows you to have a great roster around him
- Have a franchise QB on a big contract but shuffle things around to have a 1-2 year window to go all in by mortgaging future years, where you'll be in cap hell later for years (Rams/Stafford, Bills/Allen)
- Have Patrick Mahomes

Getting a franchise QB doesn't really mean that much after that rookie deal. If you're going to pay a QB a Herbert, Burrough, Allen, Prescott, Jackson type of contract, he can't be just a franchise QB. He has to be a future hall of famer. Otherwise your only option if you are going to win a SB is shuffle your cap like the Rams did, make a one year or maybe two year push, and deal with the cap consequences later.

Burrough, Allen, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, Hurts - all of these guys best window to win a SB has already closed. Are they better QBs than they were when they were at the end of their rookie deals? Sure. But not enough to offset what their second contracts do to hinder the rest of the roster. I'd give maybe Herbert a question mark only because I think he has a massive ceiling and has been held back by terrible coaching.

 

[RotatingColumn]

That doesn't work.

You win a SB one of three ways:
- Have a good QB on a rookie deal that allows you to have a great roster around him
- Have a franchise QB on a big contract but shuffle things around to have a 1-2 year window to go all in by mortgaging future years, where you'll be in cap hell later for years (Rams/Stafford, Bills/Allen)
- Have Patrick Mahomes

Getting a franchise QB doesn't really mean that much after that rookie deal. If you're going to pay a QB a Herbert, Burrough, Allen, Prescott, Jackson type of contract, he can't be just a franchise QB. He has to be a future hall of famer. Otherwise your only option if you are going to win a SB is shuffle your cap like the Rams did, make a one year or maybe two year push, and deal with the cap consequences later.

Burrough, Allen, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, Hurts - all of these guys best window to win a SB has already closed. Are they better QBs than they were when they were at the end of their rookie deals? Sure. But not enough to offset what their second contracts do to hinder the rest of the roster. I'd give maybe Herbert a question mark only because I think he has a massive ceiling and has been held back by terrible coaching.

Or just run the football and play defense lol.

Seriously though, what if a team just decided to to pay minimum on skill players but went all in on a nasty defense and the best Oline ever assembled? One dimensional for sure... but if you don't punt you only need 2.5 yards per play.

Or zero skill players, just all linemen, tight ends, and full backs. And then you just ran the tush push, with some misdirection tush and some play action push. Just turn your offense into a rugby scrum... spend the other 90% of your cap on defense.

 

[jcyclonee]

Guessing it's a bitter pill but time has shown this division only has one team that's shown the ability to draft QBs.

And they've only drafted two.

 

[clonehenge]

Hmm.. ok so I was wrong. Allow me to rephrase what I said:
Yep, which is why you the Vikings should never gamble on a QB in the first round. Just buy a proven one the Packers QB for the same amount of $$.

I think we're all traumatized from past Vikings' drafts. For every Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson or Justin Jefferson there's a plethera of Christian Ponders or Troy Williamsons.

And you could argue Moss, Peterson and Jefferson fell into their laps so it isn't like they did anything special to acquire them.

 

[Cyforce]

And they've only drafted two.

That's all they've needed. When you get it right you don't have to repeat over and over.

Could be worse, at least you didn't trade up to 2 to get Trubisky.

 

[clone52]

I think we're all traumatized from past Vikings' drafts. For every Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson or Justin Jefferson there's a plethera of Christian Ponders or Troy Williamsons.

And you could argue Moss, Peterson and Jefferson fell into their laps so it isn't like they did anything special to acquire them.

Making the right choice when it falls into your lab is a skill too.

Viking had Robert Quinn fall into their lap in 2011 but they took Ponder.
The had DeMarcus Ware fall into their lab in 2005, but they took Williamson.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Don't love this if it's true...what's a haul?

quickly skimming the article at work it doesn't really say. It just says Vikings have draft this year and next to make some moves and there could be a bidding war over JJ with Denver. The Athletic did a mock draft this morning for what it is worth, and they have vikings moving up to 5 to get McCarthy giving up 11, 23, and next year's 3rd round pick.

 

[Stormin]

Making the right choice when it falls into your lab is a skill too.

Viking had Robert Quinn fall into their lap in 2011 but they took Ponder.
The had DeMarcus Ware fall into their lab in 2005, but they took Williamson.

First you need patience…….to allow the player to fall to you. A player never falls and becomes a cheap add if you pay through the nose in draft picks to acquire them. JJ McCarthy is not a bargain if he costs 3 first rounders.

 

[jcyclonee]

That's all they've needed. When you get it right you don't have to repeat over and over.

Could be worse, at least you didn't trade up to 2 to get Trubisky.

There was a rumor that the Vikings were super-excited that the Bears traded up for Trubisky.

 

[AuH2O]

Or just run the football and play defense lol.

Seriously though, what if a team just decided to to pay minimum on skill players but went all in on a nasty defense and the best Oline ever assembled? One dimensional for sure... but if you don't punt you only need 2.5 yards per play.

Or zero skill players, just all linemen, tight ends, and full backs. And then you just ran the tush push, with some misdirection tush and some play action push. Just turn your offense into a rugby scrum... spend the other 90% of your cap on defense.

I think the rules and the way the game is officiated has killed this approach. I used to love the fact that all different styles could win. You’d get some great clashes of styles, like the Warner Rams vs the Buccaneers.

It’s just so hard to defend current offenses without getting a few Paid, illegal contact or some nonsense personal foul penalty grazing the QBs helmet with a finger.

Even if you are elite defensively, it’s hard to hold teams down.

 

[demoncore1031]

Was he the one that people questioned whether he really wanted to play pro football?

Not as far as I know. He ended up playing for an indoor football team here in Albuquerque, so I wouldn't think so.