2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[NetflixAndClone]

This is why the Power conferences need to all be playing on level ground. The B1G, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all need to play 10 conference games. The fact that the sackless SEC is still only playing 8 is a load of crap. At some point that has to matter!

I think you can convince everyone to get to 9 but 10 conference games will be a nonstarter for the SEC. They love their FCS games and cupcakes. I'm pretty sure this last offseason the SEC said they won't go to 9 unless they get more money. I may be wrong, but I thought the ACC was going to go to 9 until they saw the SEC stay at 8.

 

[Cyclonepride]

 

[VeloClone]

This is why the Power conferences need to all be playing on level ground. The B1G, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all need to play 10 conference games. The fact that the sackless SEC is still only playing 8 is a load of crap. At some point that has to matter!

I get what you are saying and agree to a point. However if the Big 12 and Big 10 go to 10 conference games you can likely kiss the Cy-Hawk game goodbye.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Always love your analysis, @Dale, but...

Surprised that KSU was this overwhelming a favorite, but (a) Massey's power ratings consider them the best Big 12 team, and (b) they have the easiest remaining schedule of the contenders, with all but one game (finale @ ISU) against teams Massey thinks are in the bottom half of the conference.

I think Massey must have updated his ratings since you last ran your MC:



He has Iowa State the highest in the Big 12 now (at #10 overall there).

BYU and K-State aren't far behind, though, and do have favorable schedules. I have a sinking feeling the Farmaggedon game in Ames on November 30 is going to be a play-in game for the CCG.

 

[Clone95]

I don't think Arizona is great, but they sure have an easy schedule. Only tough games are at BYU and at UCF. They get Tech, CO, WVU, Houston, and ASU at home

 

[ForeverIowan]

Disagree, definitely wouldn't be extremely disappointed with a 9 win regular season. Slightly disappointed just due to where we're currently at, but 9-3 would still be a successful season.

If the season started today, and you told me we were going to win 9 games, of course I would not be extremely dissapointed.

HOWEVER, the season does not start today. We are 4-0 and we will be favorites in 7 of our remaining 8 games. Pretty heavy favorites in 5 of 7 of those games.

To go 5-3 from this point forward would be pretty darn disappointing IMO.

 

[Clonedogg]

I don't think Arizona is great, but they sure have an easy schedule. Only tough games are at BYU and at UCF. They get Tech, CO, WVU, Houston, and ASU at home

They did have Utah on the road, and won.

 

[Brentwood]

Farmageddon x3

Ames 11/30
Big 12 Championship in Dallas 12/7
Week Zero in Ireland 8/23

 

[Urbandale2013]

Farmageddon x3

Ames 11/30
Big 12 Championship in Dallas 12/7
Week Zero in Ireland 8/23

We could make it into 3 out of 5 by winning the natty.

 

[Cyclonsin]

We could make it into 3 out of 6 by winning the natty.

FTFY

 

[JM4CY]

We could make it into 3 out of 5 by winning the natty.

Would our fanbase even be sober by Week zero Ireland in that case?

 

[nrg4isu]

Would our fanbase even be sober by Week zero Ireland in that case?

Only way to stick the landing is to keep drinking until after the Ireland game.

 

[mred]

I came up with an 11-1 scenario in which ISU would come up short. Say ISU loses to Utah. Utah wins out and Arizona either wins out or loses one. ISU would be 0-1 against the teams in the 2-way or 3-way tie which would knock us out.

If Arizona wins out then this is accurate. However, it's not accurate if Arizona loses one and there's a 3-way tie. In that situation, because not all the teams played each other, the head-to-head tiebreak step is ignored unless one of the three teams swept the other two. That didn't happen here.

Big 12 Football Tiebreakers - 2024 Season (PDF) - Big 12 Conference

big12sports.com

If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie).

If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.

It moves on to other steps, where the exact placement depends on which team beat Arizona and how other teams did in games not involving these three teams. You can run those scenarios here:

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

There are definitely cases where ISU is #3, but not all of them.

 

[StLouisClone]

If Arizona wins out then this is accurate. However, it's not accurate if Arizona loses one and there's a 3-way tie. In that situation, because not all the teams played each other, the head-to-head tiebreak step is ignored unless one of the three teams swept the other two. That didn't happen here.

Big 12 Football Tiebreakers - 2024 Season (PDF) - Big 12 Conference

big12sports.com

It moves on to other steps, where the exact placement depends on which team beat Arizona and how other teams did in games not involving these three teams. You can run those scenarios here:

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

There are definitely cases where ISU is #3, but not all of them.

Got it. I was hoping they had changed that tiebreaker rule (because I remember it unfavorably impacted ISU last year when ISU was in the hunt), but I guess they didn't. It still seems like a very weird tiebreaker rule. It needs to be changed. Head to head should always take priority.

 

[mred]

Got it. I was hoping they had changed that tiebreaker rule (because I remember it unfavorably impacted ISU last year when ISU was in the hunt), but I guess they didn't. It still seems like a very weird tiebreaker rule. It needs to be changed. Head to head should always take priority.

I disagree. In the hypothetical 3-way tie situation, Arizona beat Utah and Utah beat ISU. ISU very well could have beaten Arizona but didn't have the chance because they were not scheduled to play each other.

Or going one step further, what if ISU didn't play Utah either? Would you put Arizona (1-0) over ISU (0-0) and Utah (0-1)?

 

[CascadeClone]

Here is the most Iowa State situation to happen

We are 10-1 going into the KSU game. Winner gets into the championship game and loser is scoreboard watching. We draw the 11am kickoff so we can't scoreboard watch. We go all in and thump K State at home. The rest of the Big 12 games go the way KSU needs them to and they wind up in the championship game as well. We lose in the championship game and get left out of the playoffs.

And then we play KSU again to start the following season.

That is so horrific that it could be predestined.

 

[Dale]

Always love your analysis, @Dale, but...



I think Massey must have updated his ratings since you last ran your MC:

View attachment 135270

He has Iowa State the highest in the Big 12 now (at #10 overall there).

BYU and K-State aren't far behind, though, and do have favorable schedules. I have a sinking feeling the Farmaggedon game in Ames on November 30 is going to be a play-in game for the CCG.

It gets a little confusing, because there are two sets of ratings Massey puts out, and it's the other set -- the power ratings -- that, uh, power this model (as well as Massey's predictions).

In those ratings (the green PWR column below):



It's not a huge difference between the ratings in this case, though -- the bulk of the gap between KSU and ISU in the conference championship chances comes from the SOS end, I think.

 

[StLouisClone]

I disagree. In the hypothetical 3-way tie situation, Arizona beat Utah and Utah beat ISU. ISU very well could have beaten Arizona but didn't have the chance because they were not scheduled to play each other.

Or going one step further, what if ISU didn't play Utah either? Would you put Arizona (1-0) over ISU (0-0) and Utah (0-1)?

If Arizona has the best record among the teams tied, that means they played the tougher schedule. So yes, I would put them first. It shouldn't come down to some 3rd or 4th tiebreaker that involves games against the bottom half of the conference.

 

[Bob f]

We all know what's at stake and the potential of this season....but I am just trying to look at it one game at a time.

Beat Baylor!

There's a long journey ahead. 1-0

 

[FinalFourCy]

They did have Utah on the road, and won.

Getting Utah without Rising is more scheduling fortune though

AZ is in a good spot