ISU Bowl Projection
- Thread starter Chitowncy
- Start date
It would come down to where they are ranked by the playoff committee. One would think that if ISU ran the table they would be in the top 5 or so before the conference championship games. So how much would a loss in that game affect their rankings is anyone guess. We might see the magical 13th data point used in the opposite direction and be used against ISU.
When in doubt the networks and the committee are going to want to get B10 and SEC teams into the playoff, we have seen plenty of times its happened where a team from one of those two conferences jumped a team for the ACC or B12 and where placed in.
I think it all depends on context. I think we can all agree the SEC is getting a minimum of 3 teams in every year and will get 4 teams most years. I would say that a 10-2 SEC team is pretty much automatically in most years. If Ole Miss does wind up 10-2 this year, they're likely the #3 or #4 team in the SEC. I suspect they would get in over a 10-2 B12 team. I don't think that Ole Miss actually will be 10-2, I think they will be 9-3 at best. However, it's not only B12 vs SEC for one of the 6/7 at large spots. The SEC would take 3 at large slots in that scenario.
For the other 3 at large slots we'd have to see how the B1G is doing. Are there 3 non-champion teams in the B1G that are 10-2 or better? Are they big brand teams? Do they have a good strength of schedule - I don't think the paper tiger B1G West type teams would get in over a 10-2 B12 Runner up. Think about how much narrative there has been against those type of teams - the whole "Fake ID" narrative against Iowa years ago was not started by ISU, it was the national media.
There will be years that the B1G and SEC have 4 teams each (or maybe 5 SEC and 3 B1G) with an interesting enough resume to go above a 2nd place B12/ACC. But I think that will be the exception, not the rule. Over the last 5 years, generally there have not been 8 teams between the SEC/B1G with 10+ regular season wins. I think in most years, you get 3 in from B12/ACC. If ND or one of the SEC/B1G is down (each conference has had years with only 2 10 win teams), you might get 4. The only way you don't get 3 in is if the 2nd place team in both ACC and B12 have 9 wins or less or you have say a 9-3 SEC team with a late season win over the SEC favorite who doesn't get into the SEC championship game. That can happen and will sometimes, but it won't be most years.
By and large, yes. I agree with you, I think everyone is in agreement SEC/B10 will receive favorability from the committee. No question.
What I would be interested to see is will a Rutgers or Indiana get preferential treatment from the committee. If it’s down to Clemson/Miami vs and Indiana or Rutgers, who would get that spot. Or even an ISU vs those two if resumes are similar. As I mentioned, we’ve been chosen over Indiana in the past (not that I’d bet on ISU in that scenario nowadays).
I do think we all agree that the Big XII will be doing well to get 2 in most years. Hope that is this year, but the "toe stubbing" of our likely candidates that started with the highest rankings at the beginning of the year (Utah, KSU and OSU) doesn't help.
I think the Big XII conference at this point or maybe later in the year if ISU keeps winning, with ISU the highest-ranked team, may be hoping for a scenario where ISU wins out in regular season, but then loses in the conference championship game to Utah or KSU. That gives a 2 loss Utah or KSU (as they would have lost to us in the regular season but beat us in the championship game) an auto bid to the top 4 as an 11-2 team, and a 12-1 ISU as the best positioned Big XII team to make the playoff. It would be an absolute travesty if we didn't make the playoff in that scenario and I have to think the committee would let us in on those grounds, even if competing with a 2 loss SEC or BIG team, and maybe even allow ISU to host a game depending on the records / results of the other 4. That would be fun to host a game in Jack Trice in mid December. Would be crazy!!
I think the Big XII conference at this point or maybe later in the year if ISU keeps winning, with ISU the highest-ranked team, may be hoping for a scenario where ISU wins out in regular season, but then loses in the conference championship game to Utah or KSU. That gives a 2 loss Utah or KSU (as they would have lost to us in the regular season but beat us in the championship game) an auto bid to the top 4 as an 11-2 team, and a 12-1 ISU as the best positioned Big XII team to make the playoff. It would be an absolute travesty if we didn't make the playoff in that scenario and I have to think the committee would let us in on those grounds, even if competing with a 2 loss SEC or BIG team, and maybe even allow ISU to host a game depending on the records / results of the other 4. That would be fun to host a game in Jack Trice in mid December. Would be crazy!!
Clemson/Miami will get in over Indiana or Rutgers, unless the first two would have a couple more losses. This committee put in Ohio State over TCU when the frogs were ranked #3 in the country and did not play their championship game. As someone stated they will do what they want, and then come up with a reason why they did it after the fact. Hell they left out an undefeated FSU team a couple of years ago because their QB had gotten hurt, and wanted to get in a SEC team instead.
If Ole Miss is sitting there at 10-2, and ISU is 11-1, and not the conference champion, they are going to try to get Ole Miss in before ISU. It sucks, but the networks and the committees are going to protect their own, and make sure that the SEC and B10 get as much as the playoff shares money as possible.
If it comes down to ISU vs. Indiana... they will choose ISU all day. Gives them the appearance of being fair and some plausible B10 / SEC / espn collusion deniability, without hurting the real brands they care about (OSU, UM, PSU...ect).
Media doesn't give two craps if its ISU or Indiana, both are worth nothing in their minds and they have already lost if its down to those two.
I would agree that if they're choosing one team and are picking between 10-2 Ole Miss and 11-1 ISU, they'll pick 10-2 Ole Miss. But - that is not the actual scenario that would happen. If at the end of the year, ISU is 11-1 and Ole Miss is 10-2, the most likely scenario is that both get in. Left out would be some 9-3 SEC team or maybe a "Fake ID" B1G West 10-2 team who played no one.
Again just looking by the numbers over the past 5 years, if we assume 10 wins in B1G/SEC will get you in based on the last five years, this is what you get on average:
B1G: 3 Teams
SEC: 4 Teams
Best G5 Champ: 1 Team
B12 Champ: 1 Team
ACC Champ: 1 Team
This leaves 2 spots in most years for other at larges. ND probably gets in at least half the time (probably if they have 10 wins or more), so drop it to 1 available spot.
So you have 1 spot to fill with 9-3 SEC/B1G Teams and 10+ Win B12/ACC teams. At that point, you've already taken all the interesting SEC/B1G teams. You're probably picking the best #2. Just think about how the playoffs have gone so far in the 4 team playoff era, the SEC has had multiple bids 3 times out of 10. It'll happen that B12/ACC don't get a second team, but it won't be the norm. And usually, if it happens as much as we will be mad, we'll probably feel like it's justified.
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The B10 and SEC are going to get more than seven teams in. Right now unless they crash and burn from the SEC: Alabama, Tenn, Georgia, Texas are all in, with Missouri and aTm fighting for that 5th spot. From the Big 10 Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and either one of Michigan or USC are in, then throw in an outsider like Indiana those two league are going to get 9 of the teams into the playoff. So throw in the ACC and B12 get their champion in, and one G5 team and unless we win the conference we are fighting not only the SEC and B10 teams but a program like Miami or Clemson to get another spot.
Twitter has a report out that states the the B10 and SEC are wanting a rules change for 2026 that guarantees those two league will get 4 invites apiece into the playoff under the new contract. Guess they are not willing to take chances that the committee will not put 8 teams in and want it in the rules.
That’s been around since last spring, they also suggested 2 autobids for the Big12 and ACC
The date on the tweet is Sept 30th, and says nothing about 2 spots for the ACC and B12.
Oh my god it’s not in the tweet!?! Didn’t we learn our lesson yesterday about the super league tweet? Here’s a link with the part I’m talking about bolded. This was proposed last spring as well.
Stop getting your news from Twitter it’s like only reading a headline designed to get your attention and not the actual content, just makes everyone look dumb who does this.
Big Ten, SEC to discuss scheduling alliance, automatic bids in College Football Playoff
Two of college football's powerhouse conferences are set to discuss the future of the CFP
Couldn't you have just posted the link, and also mentioned raising from 12 to 14 teams in the playoff, and stop being an arrogant ass like usual.Oh my god it’s not in the tweet!?! Didn’t we learn our lesson yesterday about the super league tweet? Here’s a link with the part I’m talking about bolded. This was proposed last spring as well.
Stop getting your news from Twitter it’s like only reading a headline designed to get your attention and not the actual content, just makes everyone look dumb who does this.
Big Ten, SEC to discuss scheduling alliance, automatic bids in College Football Playoff
Two of college football's powerhouse conferences are set to discuss the future of the CFPwww.cbssports.com
The last time there was a scheduling alliance, one of the conferences got screwed over (PAC12). I'm guessing the Big XII and ACC would be the victims of this alliance.Oh my god it’s not in the tweet!?! Didn’t we learn our lesson yesterday about the super league tweet? Here’s a link with the part I’m talking about bolded. This was proposed last spring as well.
Stop getting your news from Twitter it’s like only reading a headline designed to get your attention and not the actual content, just makes everyone look dumb who does this.
Big Ten, SEC to discuss scheduling alliance, automatic bids in College Football Playoff
Two of college football's powerhouse conferences are set to discuss the future of the CFP
You’re the one that laughed at my comment and then stated “it’s not in the tweet” like it was some excellent comeback. If you weren’t wrong like usual and actually listened to others I wouldn’t have to point it out.
100% as this is only an agreement between the SEC and big ten, by proxy it will screw the other two power conferences
Way too early to say that. You expect that the SEC will have 5 or 6 teams with 10+ wins? Respectfully - I don't think so. History has shown that they most likely won't do it. There is going to be a team or two that doesn't live up to the potential. They've only had 5 with 10+ once in the last 5 years. Same with the B1G - twice in the last 5 years they've only had two teams with 10+ wins. We don't know how their new teams will impact things but I don't expect a huge change - there are only so many wins to go around.
Just give it time - most teams have played only 1-2 conference games at this point. Come back at the end of October - we'll have a much better idea. I'm not saying it's impossible that the SEC/B1G will get 8 teams - they probably will about once every 3 years. I do think it's impossible that they will get 9. There's going to be at least one 11 win ACC/B12 or 10+ ND in every year.
You said it was out in the spring, not true, the link you posted was from 22 hours ago, the tweet I posted was from Sept. 30th. Neither of which was in the spring, now were they? So I guess you were wrong here, and as usual back with the B10 arrogance.
Also since your here, the 4-1 Michigan team that you stated the fans have all but given up on a playoff spot this season, is looking pretty damn good, and in very good shape for a playoff spot.
