ISU Bowl Projection

twojman

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Link, because that is 1000% wrong that an ark st 7-5 G5 win is better then am Oklahoma sec win almost regarieee of record. G5 wins don’t count because every decent team is supposed to win, the losses hurt the wine don’t help
The committee has scored the way I said from the beginning.
They only look at records of your opponents. Does the committee have time to watch each game and do an eye test? Nope.
 

FriendlySpartan

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The committee has scored the way I said from the beginning.
They only look at records of your opponents. Does the committee have time to watch each game and do an eye test? Nope.
Do you have a link that says the committee scores things the way you say they do
 
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twojman

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The committee doesn't make it public but a couple smart people reverse engineered the rankings and came up with a formula. The below tweet gives an example.

 
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twojman

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The committee doesn't make it public but a couple smart reverse engineered the rankings and came up with a formula. The below tweet gives an example.


The 7 quality wins for texas were Wyoming, OU, Kansas, ISU, Alabama, Okie St and Kansas St. Notice all those teams finished regular season above .500. (Yes Wyoming counts as a better win compared to the other Big 12 teams Texas defeated last season) The plus 3 is for beating teams in the final cfp top 25 which were Okie St, OU and KSU and the +1 is for the conference championship.
Also notice his date on the tweet, day before final cfp rankings. There was angst about Ohio St getting in over Texas.
 

twojman

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Will a 9-3 team make the playoffs? Based on the formula that's been used for all other selctions, extremely unlikely.

 

FriendlySpartan

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The committee doesn't make it public but a couple smart people reverse engineered the rankings and came up with a formula. The below tweet gives an example.


Ahh got you, you have no idea because the committee doesn’t have a formula like you mentioned but these random guys on the internet have you convinced.

That’s the most round about way of saying “just trust me bro” I’ve heard in awhile
 

twojman

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The 7 quality wins for texas were Wyoming, OU, Kansas, ISU, Alabama, Okie St and Kansas St. Notice all those teams finished regular season above .500. (Yes Wyoming counts as a better win compared to the other Big 12 teams Texas defeated last season) The plus 3 is for beating teams in the final cfp top 25 which were Okie St, OU and KSU and the +1 is for the conference championship.
Also notice his date on the tweet, day before final cfp rankings. There was angst about Ohio St getting in over Texas.
Also, MOV he refers to is game control. Basically beat the crap out of your opponent. That weighs on rankings too
 

twojman

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Ahh got you, you have no idea because the committee doesn’t have a formula like you mentioned but these random guys on the internet have you convinced.

That’s the most round about way of saying “just trust me bro” I’ve heard in awhile
Well...sorry bro. I've followed these guys for over a decade and they put out the rankings before the cfp committee does and they nail the rankings almost exactly right every week. They've got it figured out. The question is...Will the same rules apply for a 12 team bracket?

The committee rules are purposely vague.
 

t-noah

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Personally…I like this…a lot!
The only thing to like about is ISU is projected in. What's not to like is that he SEC gets 5 teams and the B1G gets 4 teams in, while the Big 12 and ACC get only 1. Seems fair to me. Not so much.

The system is getting more broke.
 
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t-noah

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Y'all respectfully are delusional if you think a two-loss Big 12 team who didn't win the Big 12 championship has a decent chance of making this playoff. We'll get our champion auto-in and unless the runner-up was undefeated or there's a bunch of upsets in the Big 10 and SEC, that's it.

The CFP rankings are not some automatic metric-driven thing, there's a human committee that subjectively ranks them and that process is going to heavily favor the Big 10 and SEC. When it says "Strength of Schedule" for example is a factor, it's not some calculation that decides between closely-ranked teams, it's code for "Well the SEC is a meat-grinder so 9-3 LSU is in over [insert two-loss Big 12 team]."

We'll see in December!

If they lose to UGA, the pundits will say their wins over LSU & OU are better than any win in the Big XII, with wins over Arkansas and South Carolina being equal (if not better) than Big XII wins. I'm not saying that's the truth, I'm saying that's how it will be presented. They'll absolutely get in over any 2-loss Big XII/ACC team. This isn't even a question, imo. I appreciate your optimism, but this isn't designed to be a fair system.
This is how I see it also. The system clearly favors the P2.

Change the media payouts to and for the P4 to be more equitable, make the ranking system fair (not more fair), maybe the current system changes. I don't see either changing for the foreseeable future.

If things do change, for the better at some distant future point, the damage will have already been done. I would hope this might include more reasonable regional time zone conferences, or close to it. The cows are out of the barn there, and there are no fences, anywhere.
 

NorthCyd

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Well...sorry bro. I've followed these guys for over a decade and they put out the rankings before the cfp committee does and they nail the rankings almost exactly right every week. They've got it figured out. The question is...Will the same rules apply for a 12 team bracket?

The committee rules are purposely vague.
I mean, it can't be as easy as an equation like that. Any equation based on wins would have had Florida State in last year and it would have been wrong.
 

twojman

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I mean, it can't be as easy as an equation like that. Any equation based on wins would have had Florida State in last year and it would have been wrong.
Committee held them out due to QB injury, they do similar things in the NCAA tournament.
 

Cyclonsin

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Committee held them out due to QB injury, they do similar things in the NCAA tournament.
No, they used that excuse (just like they always cherry pick the statistic they need) but in reality, they held them out because putting them in would have left the SEC out and that's a non-starter.
 

NorthCyd

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Committee held them out due to QB injury, they do similar things in the NCAA tournament.
I understand that, but you were saying they use the formula based on wins to get it right every time, and I'm saying that's not true because there is a qualitative component to it. I only had to go back one year to find an example.
 

frackincygy

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I mean, it can't be as easy as an equation like that. Any equation based on wins would have had Florida State in last year and it would have been wrong.
Isn't FSUs argument they had no losses whereas the formula posted is about quality (>.500) and t25 wins?

I ran through the schedules from 2023 using the criteria outlined by @twojman (>0.500, CFP T25, Conf. Champ) and here's what I came up with:
CFP 2023.JPG

Looks like FSU was the lowest scorer. I'd argue a portion of the result is knocking a team like Miami (not a T25 win) and elevating a team like Tennessee, also helped Alabama that Chattanooga finished >.500 and was a quality win. Michigan feasted on a scheduled that ramped up late. Certainly didn't help FSU that Florida was not great last year.
 

NorthCyd

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Isn't FSUs argument they had no losses whereas the formula posted is about quality (>.500) and t25 wins?

I ran through the schedules from 2023 using the criteria outlined by @twojman (>0.500, CFP T25, Conf. Champ) and here's what I came up with:
View attachment 135408

Looks like FSU was the lowest scorer. I'd argue a portion of the result is knocking a team like Miami (not a T25 win) and elevating a team like Tennessee, also helped Alabama that Chattanooga finished >.500 and was a quality win. Michigan feasted on a scheduled that ramped up late. Certainly didn't help FSU that Florida was not great last year.
But everybody knows they were only left out because of injury. The committee said as much.
 

frackincygy

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But everybody knows they were only left out because of injury. The committee said as much.
We do? They did? Seems to me the committee would have a motive to keep their "highly complex, super secret" formula (i.e. juice SEC/B1G top25 teams) under wraps so the system couldn't be gamed or questioned... but I'm clearly not as plugged in as you are, I simply ran the math.
 

NorthCyd

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We do? They did? Seems to me the committee would have a motive to keep their "highly complex, super secret" formula (i.e. juice SEC/B1G top25 teams) under wraps so the system couldn't be gamed or questioned... but I'm clearly not as plugged in as you are, I simply ran the math.
If you consider quotes from the committee plugged in, then I guess I'm plugged in.

Speaking on ESPN on Sunday, College Football Playoff committee chair Boo Corrigan explained why FSU was left out of the top four.

“Florida State is a different team than they were through the first 11 weeks,” said Corrigan. “An incredible season. But as you look at who they are as a team, right now, without Jordan Travis, without the offensive dynamic that he brings to it, they are a different team.”

 
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