2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
After watching Utah I have been really suprised how pedestrian Utah is on the lines and at the skill positions. Just not a ton there.
They're 1-4 against us during his tenure. WVU fans are losing their minds over this (I peaked at their message boards last night). Just about every single WVU fan said that Campbell is the reason for this and that Brown is garbage.
WVU fans also seem angry that they didn't sign Rocco after the game. Rocco was passed up on when WVU was going hard after Marchiol (and he ended up signing).
What did the refs have to do with getting beat up by ISU? I'm curious what the reasoning is for Brown saying that. WVU just flat out got outplayed after their opening drive and that's why they lost the game.
Guys, I can’t get over this. We have over twice the chance of being ******* 11-1 vs 9-3. It’s this real life??
I like this new Big12. We knew someone was going to benefit from the power vacuum, maybe it’ll be us for once?
I went to their board Saturday night and they are done with Brown for a lot of reasons, they almost fired him before last season and then they want went on to 9 and 4 overall and 6 and 3 in the conference.
I get the feeling a large amount of their fan base believes that they should be winning 9 to 11 games a season, they lost to Pitt this year and Penn State has beat them the past couple of seasons. I will say they are one of the few teams in the P4 that is playing 11 P4 games. Coaching at WV is not an easy job, and they have struggled beating the better teams in the B12 since they arrived.
They were supposed to be so physical and dominating - going to beat up on everyone.
They're not small and soft, but they certainly don't stand out as being above and beyond other teams physically. They look "okay" to me but certainly not dominating by any stretch.
12-0 ISU vs 12-0 BYU should be the conference's dream
No matter who loses the CCG, both get into the CFP
No matter who loses the CCG, both get into the CFP
Utah's style of play is better suited to the less physical teams of the P12 than the more physical style of the B12. You see the same thing with UW and USC.
Utah could out muscle teams in their own league, but are struggling doing the same in the B12. Plus their 7 year QB has been in and out the entire season, and their backup is not really very good. I would guess they are going to lose a couple more times during the season. They, Ok. State and Kansas are the most disappointing teams in the league, all were expected to be a the top of the league and all three are playing half ass at best.
Utah could out muscle teams in their own league, but are struggling doing the same in the B12. Plus their 7 year QB has been in and out the entire season, and their backup is not really very good. I would guess they are going to lose a couple more times during the season. They, Ok. State and Kansas are the most disappointing teams in the league, all were expected to be a the top of the league and all three are playing half ass at best.
This does seem possible. Crazy to think. Still a long way to go, but what a travesty to keep out the loser of the CCG if this actually happens. Got to think this is the conference commissioner's dream right now. Yes, the Big 12 doesn't have the heavyweights at the top like the BIG and the SEC, but it's not a creampuff conference and still a strong tier or two above any of the G5 conferences.
That first CFP rankings release in November and the new precedent they set will be so interesting in this new era. We knew how they viewed the old Big XII, but this new version will be interesting. It's all relative and depends on how other games and teams shake out of course, but letting in a 10-2 SEC team which doesn't make it's CCG vs. a 12-1 Big XII CCG loser just seems bad to me. Bad for the sport as well.
It is reasonably even in terms of resources and potential from top to bottom, and that means that your success over time will come down to the quality of your program (coaching staff/support/stability), which bodes really well for us.
I'm all for crapping on Utah, but not sure I buy the physicality argument. Their two conf. losses are to former Pac 12 teams aren't they?
I don't mean this as a slight to big 12, but I think the physicality between big 12 and pac 12 was pretty similar previously. Fun, fast leagues.
They have QB issues IMO.
Regardless Cy-Hawk is probably on life support. The B1G and SEC are basically scheming to not play ACC or Big 12 teams moving forward.
That was their MO in the Pac 12, physical style of play, they wanted to beat teams up, and get physical with them. It just is not playing as well in the B12.
They did put all the hopes on their QB being healthy and the guy has missed a lot of games.
It is even now. I think over time you’ll see a couple teams “step up” to be the leaders of the conference and maybe compete on the national level. I don’t see this dog fight for the playoff position continuing long term. As a team gets those playoff games, their recruiting will be helped and they’ll become the powerhouse. All conferences have a few powerhouses, a few mid level teams, and a few bottom dwellers. Eventually the Big12 will move to this norm as well.
Just the same way all of those top teams that went to the SEC and Big10 will drop off. A conference only has so many wins and attention. Oklahoma, Washington, and UCLA are about to enter the find out stage.
I mostly agree, but I’m not sure recruiting will improve that drastically for us, or the other big 12 teams.
Edit: these rankings are for this years freshman class that are enrolled; not for next years class.
TCU is 2 years removed from a national championship and they’re at 34rd this year currently.
ISU is having a dream season (admittedly we will see next year maybe a bump) but we are at 53rd.
The highest rated Big 12 class right now is Tech at 25th.
I just don’t see any big 12 teams getting consistent top 15 classes, which is basically mandatory to win a championship. I did a big breakdown a few weeks back but basically; unless you pay for Cam Newton, you need consistent top 10 classes for 4 years. If you do have Cam, you need top 10-15 ranked classes for 4 years.
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I'd be surprised if the current B12 configuration ever has a top 10 team on talent (as determined by recruiting rankings). I went back through 2010 on 247 and didn't find a single year where any of us were in the top 15. NIL and the TV money gap probably isn't going to make that better.
I think the silver lining is that NIL also seems to be killing off the superteam era where Bama/Clemson/tOSU/SEC#2 were miles ahead of everyone else because they could stockpile talent. Michigan won it last year and was borderline by that criteria. Washington and TCU made the last two title games and were well outside of it. The #1 team right now is Texas, and while they're good I don't think of them as untouchable. We played them fairly close last year.
I'm hoping that even if we can't get top end talent in the B12, that talent will be more spread out at the top and give us more games like Michigan-TCU where we have a puncher's chance.
And to stay somewhat on topic it doesn't look like betting markets are quite as high on us as the Massey projections, but looking at what the odds imply we're about:
1 in 3 to win the conference
4 in 7 to make the title game
1 in 6 to go 12-0
2 in 5 to win 11+ in the regular season
3 in 7 to make the playoff (13th most likely)
~1% to win it all (but still about 14th most likely)
1 in 3 to win the conference
4 in 7 to make the title game
1 in 6 to go 12-0
2 in 5 to win 11+ in the regular season
3 in 7 to make the playoff (13th most likely)
~1% to win it all (but still about 14th most likely)
