2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[Dale]

If you're looking for who to cheer for this weekend to increase ISU's Big 12 championship odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
TCU over Texas Tech: 0.9% (76.3% to 77.2%)
West Virginia over Arizona: 0.5% (76.7% to 77.2%)
Colorado over Cincinnati: 0.3% (76.0% to 76.3%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (77.0% to 77.1%)
Utah over Houston: 0.1% (76.8% to 76.9%)

And all remaining non-ISU games that have a 2% more or swing for ISU's odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
Kansas over BYU: 7.8% (74.1% to 81.9%)
Utah over BYU: 7.8% (72.4% to 80.2%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
Houston over Kansas St.: 7.5% (76.0% to 83.5%)
Arizona St over BYU: 7.2% (74.1% to 81.3%)
Houston over BYU: 7.1% (76.0% to 83.1%)
Arizona St over Kansas St.: 6.4% (76.2% to 82.6%)
Cincinnati over Kansas St.: 3.8% (75.7% to 79.5%)
West Virginia over Cincinnati: 2.1% (75.7% to 77.8%)

Pretty apparent that we'd like some more losses by BYU and KSU.

 

[AppleCornCy]

If you're looking for who to cheer for this weekend to increase ISU's Big 12 championship odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
TCU over Texas Tech: 0.9% (76.3% to 77.2%)
West Virginia over Arizona: 0.5% (76.7% to 77.2%)
Colorado over Cincinnati: 0.3% (76.0% to 76.3%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (77.0% to 77.1%)
Utah over Houston: 0.1% (76.8% to 76.9%)

And all remaining non-ISU games that have a 2% more or swing for ISU's odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
Kansas over BYU: 7.8% (74.1% to 81.9%)
Utah over BYU: 7.8% (72.4% to 80.2%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
Houston over Kansas St.: 7.5% (76.0% to 83.5%)
Arizona St over BYU: 7.2% (74.1% to 81.3%)
Houston over BYU: 7.1% (76.0% to 83.1%)
Arizona St over Kansas St.: 6.4% (76.2% to 82.6%)
Cincinnati over Kansas St.: 3.8% (75.7% to 79.5%)
West Virginia over Cincinnati: 2.1% (75.7% to 77.8%)

Pretty apparent that we'd like some more losses by BYU and KSU.

I really feel like I want Cincy to beat Colorado. Give the Buffs a second conference loss. We have a chance to give Cincy a second loss later if they don’t already have it by then.

But yeah, I’m a big Kansas and UCF fan next weekend.

 

[Cyhig]

If you're looking for who to cheer for this weekend to increase ISU's Big 12 championship odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
TCU over Texas Tech: 0.9% (76.3% to 77.2%)
West Virginia over Arizona: 0.5% (76.7% to 77.2%)
Colorado over Cincinnati: 0.3% (76.0% to 76.3%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (77.0% to 77.1%)
Utah over Houston: 0.1% (76.8% to 76.9%)

And all remaining non-ISU games that have a 2% more or swing for ISU's odds:

Kansas over Kansas St.: 8.2% (74.8% to 83.0%)
Kansas over BYU: 7.8% (74.1% to 81.9%)
Utah over BYU: 7.8% (72.4% to 80.2%)
UCF over BYU: 7.6% (73.4% to 81.0%)
Houston over Kansas St.: 7.5% (76.0% to 83.5%)
Arizona St over BYU: 7.2% (74.1% to 81.3%)
Houston over BYU: 7.1% (76.0% to 83.1%)
Arizona St over Kansas St.: 6.4% (76.2% to 82.6%)
Cincinnati over Kansas St.: 3.8% (75.7% to 79.5%)
West Virginia over Cincinnati: 2.1% (75.7% to 77.8%)

Pretty apparent that we'd like some more losses by BYU and KSU.

Looking forward to the games next weekend with far less stress

 

[OWLCITYCYFAN]

If we are exorcising demons from the 1938 Big Six Conference (and prior), we want the KSU game to be meaningful. As everybody knows, we started 7-0 in 1938, then KSU marred our perfect season with a tie in Manhattan, followed by the season ending loss to OU (in Ames).

I don't want to back into anything. I want to win the Big XII Conference Championship game vs 12-0 BYU, gaining entrance to the title game by beating the 10-1 Wildcats in the final game of the season. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Let's go State!

 

[jdoggivjc]

I honestly don't care about the odds and other teams doing us favors - just win out and it all means nothing.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Remember they oversell student tickets so there is a good chance that most seats will be filled. I will make sure 2 are there.

Agreed. At the Baylor game, students were having to stand in the aisle. It was oversold/filled.

 

[CheapClone1202]

If we are exorcising demons from the 1938 Big Six Conference (and prior), we want the KSU game to be meaningful. As everybody knows, we started 7-0 in 1938, then KSU marred our perfect season with a tie in Manhattan, followed by the season ending loss to OU (in Ames).

I don't want to back into anything. I want to win the Big XII Conference Championship game vs 12-0 BYU, gaining entrance to the title game by beating the 10-1 Wildcats in the final game of the season. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Let's go State!

“As everyone knows” followed by “the” season ending loss is subtle yet hilarious

 

[andybernard]

ND is going to probably have better wins but worse losses than us. Who knows how they’ll sort that.

Lol I think we all know exactly how that would be sorted out.

 

[cyclones500]

Yeah their loss to Northern Illinois has basically been treated as though it didn’t happen in the eyes of the AP. Now let’s see what the CFP committee does with it.

ND does have the road win at A&M. So it has the extremes of "good win" vs. "bad loss."

Funny thing about Notre Dame's remaining schedule: It might get more of a boost by defeating Army and Navy than Florida State & USC. A concept unthinkable prior to the season.

 

[HFCS]

ND does have the road win at A&M. So it has the extremes of "good win" vs. "bad loss."

Funny thing about Notre Dame's remaining schedule: It might get more of a boost by defeating Army and Navy than Florida State & USC. A concept unthinkable prior to the season.

ND really needs "special" treatment in this new era.

1 - They start every season 0-1 without the all important 13th data point
2 - They play a non-power 2 schedule against lots of ACC teams

I mean, unless something is different and special for them.

 

[OWLCITYCYFAN]

“As everyone knows” followed by “the” season ending loss is subtle yet hilarious

Everybody now knows Iowa State started 7-0 in 1938 - announcers and written articles have been noting it for weeks. Casual fans probably don't know Kansas State brought an end to that perfect season with a tie game in Manhattan. With the newly configured Big XII, the Wildcats are as close to an arch-rival as we've got, so it'll be sweet to defeat them in a "winner takes all" final regular season game.

 

[atlantacyclone]

Yeah, at this point we can just figure the Big Ten and SEC get eight combined spots. The Big 12, ACC, and best G5 get three more spots. The last spot likely goes to either an ACC school, a Big 12 school, Notre Dame, or a fifth SEC school.

I say root against teams like Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M. Root against the other teams at the top of the Big 12 to improve our odds of getting to the conference title game. Root for Boise State to lose a game and fall out of contention for a bye in the playoff.

Things will evolve as the season goes on, but that’s how I see it right now.

I make it a practice to just root against all SEC schools except for Vandy.

 

[nfrine]

Everybody now knows Iowa State started 7-0 in 1938 - announcers and written articles have been noting it for weeks. Casual fans probably don't know Kansas State brought an end to that perfect season with a tie game in Manhattan. With the newly configured Big XII, the Wildcats are as close to an arch-rival as we've got, so it'll be sweet to defeat them in a "winner takes all" final regular season game.

In the snow...

 

[CySmurf]

In the snow...

Abu Sama lll, get ready to roll!

 

[TheCaptain]

 

[bosco]

Abu Sama lll, get ready to roll!

K State if there is snow that game.

 

[Bob f]

In the snow...

I like how you think!

 

[Sigmapolis]

K State if there is snow that game.

It ain’t me.

 

[isufbcurt]

I'll be cheering on the team vs Kstate from Grenada, so if anyone needs tickets to that game DM me.

 

[HawaiiClone]

We need to cheer for every team outside of us in the top 5 to lose games. Amazed at the number of fans that want BYU and even K State a bit to keep winning so we have a better SOS for an at large if we drop a game.

If anyone thinks the Big 12 is getting an at-large spot in the CFP you haven’t been paying attention.

Just get us to the Big 12 Championship so we can try and win our way in. That and I want to win the damn conference in general.

It would be great to win against a 10-1 KState and a 12-0 BYU so that if the ACC's champion has enough losses we can get the 3 seed.