2024-25 ISU WBB Season Thread

[BoxsterCy]

I will say I have no idea how FPI is calculated or how good of a predictor it is for women’s Basketball

Drinking coffee and stalling off shoveling snow so got time to ramble on some here with some hoops talk.

There was quite a bit of chatter on the Iowa WBB board before the Cy-Hawk game citing various predictive models. Never see that all that much here. For the Iowa game they turned out to be pretty accurate, or lucky considering the wild card that can be a rivalry game.

My own Hooping Beagle Predictive Model, mostly based on my personal whims, makes this roadie at OSU 60%.

It is a roadie but it's not like we will be playing in front of 15,000 Iowa fans or a big crowd of UConn fans. Although we have sort of owned the Cowgirls the last ten games this team does not look much like their team of last year at all. They added a ton of transfers. Looking some and they shoot a LOT of threes (26 a game) and are hitting 41% and so far this year we are dead last in the Big 12 in three point defense. They make ten threes a game. Guard Micah Gray via the portal from Seaton Hall is leading them in scoring. They have a 6'-6" transfer that starts at post.

They are leading the Big 12 in scoring and 3rd in defense which means absolutely nothing since they have played no one at all and that way skews the stats. Still, with all of those new kids to integrate (including a ranked freshman, it was probably a good idea to have a super soft schedule. However, never even really leaving Stillwater was a little risky maybe along with having no challenges at all, we will see. On paper they have assembled a decent looking team.

Here's all of their portal adds and stats at OSU

• Micah Gray: A junior guard from Seton Hall averaging 16.8 pts at OSU
• Stacie Jones: A graduate transfer from Mercer averaging 6.4 pts & 4.0 reb for OU
• Ténin Magassa: A 6'6" center from Rhode Island averaging 9.2 points and 6.1 reb for OSU
• Macy Huard: A sophomore from Montana averaging 10.4 pts & 4.0 rebs for OSU
• Alexia Smith: A fifth-year senior from Virginia averaging 5.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game

And throw in returning players Stacy Heard 14 pts and Anna Gret Asi 13.1 pts and freshman Jadyn Wooten with 9.6 pts

Wildcards: Can we up our defense and find an offensive rhythm? Will Cowgirls light us up for a million threes? Can they keep Crooks/Brown from going off inside? Will their guards make us look slow?

 

[ZorkClone]

Massey ratings predict a 55% OSU victory.

That feels a lot more correct. I've said this earlier, but we haven't seen our team play vs a non-instate normal P4 team. Despite my reservations with Bill's offence, he does play the Big 12 pretty well and they usually do a good job of coming with a gameplan to work.

Even in the UCONN game they changed up their defense to a zone to take advantage of what ND did to them the game prior. It just so happened that UCONN decided to have a lights out shooting day.

 

[acoustimac]

After looking at the Oklahoma State schedule, I’ve been sitting back and thinking about our schedule this morning. Oklahoma State has played a bunch of patsies and therefore the 10 and one record doesn’t fully tell us anything. What would we be feeling about our team if we had the same type of schedule and we’re currently sitting undefeated? I’m sure we would have some lofty stats based off of what we have seen from the weak teams that we have played. Honestly, I think we know more about our team because of who we have played Versus if we had a soft schedule. In a sense, our team is much more battle tested than Oklahoma State. Sure, we lost against our three toughest opponents, but we still played those games.

 

[ZorkClone]

After looking at the Oklahoma State schedule, I’ve been sitting back and thinking about our schedule this morning. Oklahoma State has played a bunch of patsies and therefore the 10 and one record doesn’t fully tell us anything. What would we be feeling about our team if we had the same type of schedule and we’re currently sitting undefeated? I’m sure we would have some lofty stats based off of what we have seen from the weak teams that we have played. Honestly, I think we know more about our team because of who we have played Versus if we had a soft schedule. In a sense, our team is much more battle tested than Oklahoma State. Sure, we lost against our three toughest opponents, but we still played those games.

We have two wins MTSU (Massey 53) and Drake (74) better than their best win Arkansas (102) but our worst lost is worse than theirs UNI (76) vs Richmond (50).

Not much to read by that, but we have the 15th hardest SOS so far and they have 224th.

 

[Three4Cy]

After looking at the Oklahoma State schedule, I’ve been sitting back and thinking about our schedule this morning. Oklahoma State has played a bunch of patsies and therefore the 10 and one record doesn’t fully tell us anything. What would we be feeling about our team if we had the same type of schedule and we’re currently sitting undefeated? I’m sure we would have some lofty stats based off of what we have seen from the weak teams that we have played. Honestly, I think we know more about our team because of who we have played Versus if we had a soft schedule. In a sense, our team is much more battle tested than Oklahoma State. Sure, we lost against our three toughest opponents, but we still played those games.

I know people are frustrated with the UCONN loss, but what I took away from that game was that after the first quarter, the next three quarters, they only outscored us 65-58. We could have easily said we were behind by 26; let's hang it up and go home, but at least we kept fighting.

The issue we've had in all four losses is Addy Brown disappears. In the UNI loss, she disappeared in the second half; against South Carolina, she never got started; at Iowa, she was in foul trouble; and at UConn, a basket a quarter. She knows the defense will key on her, so what can she do to create open shots, space, etc. We aren't going to win games when she scores less than 10 points

 

[OWLCITYCYFAN]

My own Hooping Beagle Predictive Model, mostly based on my personal whims, makes this roadie at OSU 60%.

It is a roadie but it's not like we will be playing in front of 15,000 Iowa fans or a big crowd of UConn fans. Looking some and they shoot a LOT of threes (26 a game) and are hitting 41% and so far this year we are dead last in the Big 12 in three point defense. They make ten threes a game.

They are leading the Big 12 in scoring and 3rd in defense which means absolutely nothing since they have played no one at all and that way skews the stats.

Hooping Beagle Analytics - I like it - we have a rescue American Foxhound, which looks like a tall athletic Beagle. I think tri-colored Beagles, Foxhounds and Treeing Walker Coonhounds are the best-looking dogs out there! Anyway...

OSU's one loss is to Richmond, a squad which qualified for the NCAA tournament last season, by a score of 57-53. The game was in Daytona Beach in front of a crowd reported to be 120 - ouch. OSU shot 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land and 38.2% overall.

I watched quite a few Montana games last year as MEM played out her string, so I saw OSU transfer Macy Huard. She's the daughter of former NFL QB Brock Huard, so she's a fine athlete.

It appears the fine-looking Jacie Hoyt has remade her roster with fine athletes, which has been the formula to give ISU fits so far this season. We haven't been able to stay in front of Maya M, Katie D or anybody from USC, Iowa & UCONN.

Unless CBF comes up with a new defensive approach, we're stuck hoping OSU has another off shooting night from the 3-Point stripe, while we limit the number of turnovers accrued feeding the post.

Postscript: Why are we seemingly so much worse on defense than we were last season?
* Crooks, Brown & AJ are carryovers, playing at roughly the same level.
* Belanger exchanged for Hare / Tanke
* Natabou exchanged for Williams / Taulilei
* Ny Diew exchanged for Hansford / Joens
* Jalynn Bristow exchanged for Sidney Harris

My thoughts are we underappreciated the defensive contributions of Ny Diew and Hannah Belanger. Also, we quickly forgot about Natabou's offensive deficiencies with the emergence of Audi, but Isnelle was at least an imposing figure inside. Bristow did block more shots and grab more boards than Sid has, thus far anyway.

 

[rosshm16]

OSU's played absolutely nobody. They haven't had a road game yet (I know they won't have one on Saturday either, I'm just saying they haven't been sternly tested). They almost lost to Fairfield at home FFS. They lost to Richmond at a neutral-site.

We should win on Saturday and folks should be surprised/disappointed if we don't.

 

[ZorkClone]

Hooping Beagle Analytics - I like it - we have a rescue American Foxhound, which looks like a tall athletic Beagle. I think tri-colored Beagles, Foxhounds and Treeing Walker Coonhounds are the best-looking dogs out there! Anyway...

OSU's one loss is to Richmond, a squad which qualified for the NCAA tournament last season, by a score of 57-53. The game was in Daytona Beach in front of a crowd reported to be 120 - ouch. OSU shot 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land and 38.2% overall.

I watched quite a few Montana games last year as MEM played out her string, so I saw OSU transfer Macy Huard. She's the daughter of former NFL QB Brock Huard, so she's a fine athlete.

It appears the fine-looking Jacie Hoyt has remade her roster with fine athletes, which has been the formula to give ISU fits so far this season. We haven't been able to stay in front of Maya M, Katie D or anybody from USC, Iowa & UCONN.

Unless CBF comes up with a new defensive approach, we're stuck hoping OSU has another off shooting night from the 3-Point stripe, while we limit the number of turnovers accrued feeding the post.

Postscript: Why are we seemingly so much worse on defense than we were last season?
* Crooks, Brown & AJ are carryovers, playing at roughly the same level.
* Belanger exchanged for Hare / Tanke
* Natabou exchanged for Williams / Taulilei
* Ny Diew exchanged for Hansford / Joens
* Jalynn Bristow exchanged for Sidney Harris

My thoughts are we underappreciated the defensive contributions of Ny Diew and Hannah Belanger. Also, we quickly forgot about Natabou's offensive deficiencies with the emergence of Audi, but Isnelle was at least an imposing figure inside. Bristow did block more shots and grab more boards than Sid has, thus far anyway.

Iowa State Opponent stats through Noncon games

Stat	2024	2023
PPG	63.3	65.6
FG %	.373	.35
3pt %	.342	.27
Turnovers/Game	14.4	10.2

I wouldn't say our defense is much different than last year stats wise and this includes playing two of the top 4 teams that completely blew us out.

There is a 7% difference in 3 point shooting, which points to maybe a problem with the perimeter?

 

[acoustimac]

Iowa State Opponent stats through Noncon games

Stat	2024	2023
PPG	63.3	65.6
FG %	.373	.35
3pt %	.342	.27
Turnovers/Game	14.4	10.2

I wouldn't say our defense is much different than last year stats wise and this includes playing two of the top 4 teams that completely blew us out.

There is a 7% difference in 3 point shooting, which points to maybe a problem with the perimeter?

Those three point stats have to be highly skewed by UConn and UNI don’t they?

 

[rosshm16]

Those three point stats have to be highly skewed by UConn and UNI don’t they?

Excluding those two games, opponents are shooting 29.4% on threes.

Last year, excluding the two games where opponents shot the best, through 13 games opponents were shooting 26.1% on threes.

 

[ZorkClone]

Those three point stats have to be highly skewed by UConn and UNI don’t they?

Yes, If you remove UNI and UConn it drops to .29.

If you remove just Uconn its .31

Central Michigan also had a really great 3 point game against us 9-21

 

[BoxsterCy]

Excluding those two games, opponents are shooting 29.4% on threes.

Last year, excluding the two games where opponents shot the best, through 13 games opponents were shooting 26.1% on threes.

Early season three defense stats are pretty skewed for NC by the number of cupcakes everyone plays whether it is last season or this season. It's more like crappy teams in NC can't shot than we shut them down. We were 13th out of 14 teams in the Big 12 last year in three point defense in LEAGUE play in allowing 34%. So, we had issues last year with perimeter defense. So far this year it looks like we again have those issues.

 

[ZorkClone]

Early season three defense stats are pretty skewed for NC by the number of cupcakes everyone plays whether it is last season or this season. It's more like crappy teams in NC can't shot than we shut them down. We were 13th out of 14 teams in the Big 12 last year in three point defense in LEAGUE play in allowing 34%. So, we had issues last year with perimeter defense. So far this year it looks like we again have those issues.

Agree, but it doesn't look like defense is particularly worse this year. I looked at the beginning of the season and saw the entire time Bill has been our coach we have not been in the top half of the league in points allowed.

 

[mred]

We have two wins MTSU (Massey 53) and Drake (74) better than their best win Arkansas (102) but our worst lost is worse than theirs UNI (76) vs Richmond (50).

Not much to read by that, but we have the 15th hardest SOS so far and they have 224th.

OSU has only played one team in the top 100 and they lost to them. Our worst loss may be lower than their loss, but that's only because they didn't play anyone at all between 51-100.

OSU is scheduling their non-conference like Kim Mulkey is their coach.

 

[theshadow]

OSU is scheduling their non-conference like Kim Mulkey is their coach.

Looks like most of the league scheduled that way this year. 11 teams have a NET non-con SOS of 200+, and 2 others are near 150.

Only ISU (49), TCU (65) and Utah (71) are in the top 100.

 

[ZorkClone]

Looks like most of the league scheduled that way this year. 11 teams have a NET non-con SOS of 200+, and 2 others are near 150.

Only ISU (49), TCU (65) and Utah (71) are in the top 100.

Kinda surprised that 48 teams have a harder SOS than us.

 

[theshadow]

Kinda surprised that 48 teams have a harder SOS than us.

Lot of SWAC, MEAC, and other lower-level teams who play mostly "buy" games in the non-con.

 

[farm85]

https://www.middletownpress.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/article/geno-auriemma-bill-fennelly-uconn-huskies-19987786.php

 

[WartburgClone]

We should win on Saturday and folks should be surprised/disappointed if we don't

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic but I wouldn't be surprised. The formula to beat us is out there and opposing coaches would be stupid not to follow it.

 

[qwerty]

https://www.middletownpress.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/article/geno-auriemma-bill-fennelly-uconn-huskies-19987786.php

Thanks, nice read.