*** Official #25 Baylor vs #3 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

[jdoggivjc]

I’m trying not to file hopes up too high because literally anything can happen in March.

This team passed the eye test for sure. Metrics are elite. And probably the most reassuring thing is that we’ve found so many different ways to win. It seems literally every game it’s some different type and contributions that gets us the win.

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s... but that last second loss to Auburn and wins against Dayton, Marquette and Iowa really help counteract that... and while the Big 12 might be slightly down compared to previous years, Baylor is still a second-weekend team and we flat out quietly dominated them from tip to buzzer.

 

[CyNews]

Some of it at least for you.

Thanks! Always emotional to hear Pete.

 

[alarson]

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s... but that last second loss to Auburn and wins against Dayton, Marquette and Iowa really help counteract that... and while the Big 12 might be slightly down compared to previous years, Baylor is still a second-weekend team and we flat out quietly dominated them from tip to buzzer.

All that really shows is that NCSOS is a terrible and frankly worthless metric.

When a large chunk of any major team's noncon schedule is buy games, often the only real difference between our NCSOS and some others is whether those buy games are 200+ or 300+.

A better comparison among tournament teams is to look at something like Wins Above Bubble which minimizes the effect of those buy games (because none of those really are 'above bubble'). And if you look at WAB in nonconference games, ISU is sitting at #11, so we've accomplished more than most teams during the nonconference. And that doesn't even factor in our loss to Auburn making us look better since it went to the wire.

 

[Clone95]

I’ve always been a huge Jones guy, and Jefferson has been great, but Keshon is really driving the ship this year. He has taken his game to another level this year, adding in the pg duties while maintaining the scoring and defense.

 

[jdoggivjc]

All that really shows is that NCSOS is a terrible and frankly worthless metric.

When a large chunk of any major team's noncon schedule is buy games, often the only real difference between our NCSOS and some others is whether those buy games are 200+ or 300+.

A better comparison among tournament teams is to look at something like Wins Above Bubble which minimizes the effect of those buy games (because none of those really are 'above bubble'). And if you look at WAB in nonconference games, ISU is sitting at #11, so we've accomplished more than most teams during the nonconference. And that doesn't even factor in our loss to Auburn making us look better since it went to the wire.

I agree with you... but the committee wasn't afraid to use that metric against us last year, especially when the ACC bitched about it. And that's why I think it was really important we went 3-1 in the noncon against teams probably in the tourney (yeah, I think Iowa still gets there) - it's insurance against the ACC trying to make that case again.

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s... but that last second loss to Auburn and wins against Dayton, Marquette and Iowa really help counteract that... and while the Big 12 might be slightly down compared to previous years, Baylor is still a second-weekend team and we flat out quietly dominated them from tip to buzzer.

Where have you seen it in the 300s?

 

[twincyties]

Totally agree this year is different. Honestly surprised our non conference rating is not better than it is given how superior our competition was this year:

We play Auburn, Dayton and Colorado compared to VCU, VaTech, and A&M in holiday tourney then Marquette instead of DePaul in Big East challenge. Iowa obviously the same but in the road instead of at home.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Where have you seen it in the 300s?

CBS displayed it during their broadcast

 

[Cyclonepride]

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s... but that last second loss to Auburn and wins against Dayton, Marquette and Iowa really help counteract that... and while the Big 12 might be slightly down compared to previous years, Baylor is still a second-weekend team and we flat out quietly dominated them from tip to buzzer.

If that is the case, time to scrap the model and salt its ashes, as that is an absurd output,

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

CBS displayed it during their broadcast

Wow they do have it at 324. Thats ridiculous. Its 113 in the ESPN BPI and 232 in KenPom.

 

[alarson]

Wow they do have it at 324. Thats ridiculous. Its 113 in the ESPN BPI and 232 in KenPom.

Link to that?

Im curious what their source is.

I also note that torvik's SOS has us way higher

2025 Strength of Schedule - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[RezClone]

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s...

Here's KenPom

 

[jdoggivjc]

If that is the case, time to scrap the model and salt its ashes, as that is an absurd output,

Wow they do have it at 324. Thats ridiculous. Its 113 in the ESPN BPI and 232 in KenPom.

Link to that?

Im curious what their source is.

I also note that torvik's SOS has us way higher

2025 Strength of Schedule - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

I mean, I 100% agree - I have no idea how they could possibly have us in the 300s when our OOC includes Auburn, Dayton, Marquette, Colorado, and Iowa. I get it, the rest of our OOC was total garbage, but that's 4 Q1 games and Colorado is probably Q2, but could end up being Q1 by the end of Big 12 play (doesn't look great for them right now, but it's still early).

I just latched onto 300 because that's what was shown on the screen. Just really hard to believe.

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

Link to that?

Im curious what their source is.

I also note that torvik's SOS has us way higher

2025 Strength of Schedule - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

I thought our nonconference schedule was decent.

 

[alarson]

2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024-25 Resume Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

I was meaning CBS's 300+ one.

kenpom, torvik, etc none of them have us as 300+ so im just curious what metric they're basing that off of

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

I was meaning CBS's 300+ one.

kenpom, torvik, etc none of them have us as 300+ so im just curious what metric they're basing that off of

My bad. In looking at it a bit closer, they still have last seasons data. Scroll down below the bracket. We’re a 1 seed but the quad records and nc sos are last years.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

 

[t-noah]

We had Chatty and JJ in foul trouble in the 1st half and were still playing after 2 fouls each. Jackson only gets 18 minutes/game. Not sure what happens if Chatty and JJ get benched with fouls. Watson? Or just play 3g + Milan + Jackson?

The Rock-et man, of course.

A little tongue 'n cheek, as it is not quite his year. But I don't think JT would embarrass himself if called upon for a few minutes here and there. Next year he will be part of the offense, and hopefully his defense is improving. Practicing against Jackson, Jefferson, Milan, and Chatfield will for sure help his development.

 

[nfrine]

the only cause for concern is I've seen our nonconference SOS is in the 300s... but that last second loss to Auburn and wins against Dayton, Marquette and Iowa really help counteract that... and while the Big 12 might be slightly down compared to previous years, Baylor is still a second-weekend team and we flat out quietly dominated them from tip to buzzer.

Almost. We lost the tip...
I'm sure TJ will point that out in the film reviews.

 

[rosshm16]

Someone reported yesterday that JT was draining threes during warm-ups