Lunardi and Palm now project Iowa State as a 4-seed as Selection Sunday nears

[bawbie]

Can you imagine being a 2-seed and having to play the winner of Kansas / Drake in the second round? I feel like either Kansas (if they get their heads on straight) or Drake would kill St Johns

Or even a 1-seed and playing the two-time national champ - or the winner of Gonzaga/Creighton. Those would be unpleasant second round matchups.

 

[madguy30]

3pt defense % is largely random. BYU is a good shooting team - but it was just as much luck as defense that they went 18-36 against us and 6-28 against Houston. Hell, they scored as many points against us from 3-pt shots as they scored against Houston TOTAL.

Friday Houston had BYU uncomfortable from the start. BYU had to make the shots but Houston has the athletes to play straight up and generally guards the perimeter better. Conversely I think Houston's much more patient on offense which helped to limit BYU possessions.

Even before the injuries ISU was late getting to try to run off the shooter or tbh in some games their guards simply watched. Iirc TJ mentioned it a few times in post-game comments in regards to effort and not just putting a hand out and thinking that's enough.

I thought ISU was the most effective on Thursday when they held off the trap and just defended and wish they would have stayed with that a bit more for effectiveness and to reserve energy for late. But maybe there was something else involved to still trap.

 

[bawbie]

If you consider TTU and UK as "locks" on the 3-line; then the last 2 three seeds come down to:
Iowa State
Wisconsin
Maryland
TAMU

And we have 2 more Q1 wins that either of them (10,8,8,7). We are the only ones with 2 Q2 losses - but injuries are supposed to be accounted for, and we were down key starters in both of those losses.

We are also the highest of those 4 in NET, kenpom, BPI & T-Rank.

So I think we should clearly be on the 3-line, but I bet we get bumped to the 4. Not that it really matters - of the 5/6 seeds, Clemson is the only one would really worry me - other than I don't want another matchup with Illinois.

 

[NYCYFan]

So Auburn should drop then to a 2 right? Lost three of four

Ridiculous analogy. Auburn has piled up a bunch of quality wins in the last few months and lost at the buzzer against Alabama, to A&M on the road and down the wire against Tennessee. Iowa State lost to West Virginia, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Sorry and maybe it upsets people but Iowa State hasn't done much in the last 2 months. Two bad losses and in the last 2 months beat UCF twice, Arizona State, TCU, Cincy twice, Colorado and Kansas State. Arizona was the only quality win. Iowa State has a strong OOC resume and a strong start to the conference season but that was a long time ago now, their resume has been bleeding for a while now. Is the early season resume enough to carry them to a 3 seed? Sure, it's possible, but you can't ignore the bad two months they've had since and I'm sure the committee won't.

 

[iowastatefan1929]

Fox Mike Decourcy has us in the South as a 3 with Ole Miss and Michigan St. Maybe a chance to revenge the Auburn Hills con job.

 

[madguy30]

Ridiculous analogy. Auburn has piled up a bunch of quality wins in the last few months and lost at the buzzer against Alabama, to A&M on the road and down the wire against Tennessee. Iowa State lost to West Virginia, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Sorry and maybe it upsets people but Iowa State hasn't done much in the last 2 months. Two bad losses and in the last 2 months beat UCF twice, Arizona State, TCU, Cincy twice, Colorado and Kansas State. Arizona was the only quality win. Iowa State has a strong OOC resume and a strong start to the conference season but that was a long time ago now, their resume has been bleeding for a while now. Is the early season resume enough to carry them to a 3 seed? Sure, it's possible, but you can't ignore the bad two months they've had since and I'm sure the committee won't.

Will the committee pay attention to a main player missing a month, one being hobbled and another being hobbled and another missing time to sickness?

If ISU lost 3-4 non-conference games but have a better two months with a full roster what's the narrative?

 

[dahliaclone]

Ridiculous analogy. Auburn has piled up a bunch of quality wins in the last few months and lost at the buzzer against Alabama, to A&M on the road and down the wire against Tennessee. Iowa State lost to West Virginia, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Sorry and maybe it upsets people but Iowa State hasn't done much in the last 2 months. Two bad losses and in the last 2 months beat UCF twice, Arizona State, TCU, Cincy twice, Colorado and Kansas State. Arizona was the only quality win. Iowa State has a strong OOC resume and a strong start to the conference season but that was a long time ago now, their resume has been bleeding for a while now. Is the early season resume enough to carry them to a 3 seed? Sure, it's possible, but you can't ignore the bad two months they've had since and I'm sure the committee won't.

What’s ridiculous is not comparing teams in the 3-5 seed range and realizing Iowa state still stands out to get a 3 over many of them not even counting our injuries.

 

[NoCreativity]

If you consider TTU and UK as "locks" on the 3-line; then the last 2 three seeds come down to:
Iowa State
Wisconsin
Maryland
TAMU

And we have 2 more Q1 wins that either of them (10,8,8,7). We are the only ones with 2 Q2 losses - but injuries are supposed to be accounted for, and we were down key starters in both of those losses.

We are also the highest of those 4 in NET, kenpom, BPI & T-Rank.

So I think we should clearly be on the 3-line, but I bet we get bumped to the 4. Not that it really matters - of the 5/6 seeds, Clemson is the only one would really worry me - other than I don't want another matchup with Illinois.

I just don't see any way Maryland or A&M are slotted above us. I think we get the last 3.

A&M is ranked 22nd on Torvick, I just don't see it at all.

 

[NoCreativity]

Sorry and maybe it upsets people but Iowa State hasn't done much in the last 2 months.

You do understand that the @UCF, @Kansas St, and Cincinnati in KC were all Q1 wins right?

 

[Cyched]

Can you imagine being a 2-seed and having to play the winner of Kansas / Drake in the second round? I feel like either Kansas (if they get their heads on straight) or Drake would kill St Johns

Or even a 1-seed and playing the two-time national champ - or the winner of Gonzaga/Creighton. Those would be unpleasant second round matchups.

While I hate the "we are Iowa State" mentality, feels like we would've gotten stuck with that had we been on the 1/2 line.

Obviously anything can happen, and the 6/11 winner will not be a slouch. But a 3 seed feels somewhat "insulated" until the second weekend.

 

[MartyFine]

I wouldn't be surprised at Iowa State being a 4 and part of it has to do with the uncertainty surrounding Gilbert and Lipsey's status. They also have 2 bad losses to K-State and Oklahoma State and only one quality win in the last 2 months which was the win against Arizona at home. Not a lot of meat on the resume unfortunately with the added in question marks of the committee trying to figure out which Iowa State team we're going to see in the tournament with the injury concerns looming so I think a 4 seed is a strong possibility.

It's too bad because after that Kansas win on January 15th, the Cyclones were tracking to a 1 seed but the last 2 months have been a relative disaster tbh.

Except we are to look at the entire body of work. NET has ISU at 9, KenPom at 10, BartT at 8. Good night people...

 

[WastedTalent]

I still can't believe we allowed BYU to shoot 50% from 3 on 36 attempts. I know we were down our 2 best perimeter defenders, but if the drop off is that steep...we are going to need both guys for our Thursday/Friday game.

Think a 13 or 14 seed is as good as BYU?

 

[Cyched]

I do think Gilbert will play the first game, even if it's on a pitch count.

If you sit him, and we get upset? You've now inadvertently ended his college career.

Why I'm glad I'm not a coach.

Lipsey could be in an iron lung and he'd still try to play, so I'm expecting him to go.

 

[GrayerNot Mayor]

I do think Gilbert will play the first game, even if it's on a pitch count.

If you sit him, and we get upset? You've now inadvertently ended his college career.

Why I'm glad I'm not a coach.

Lipsey could be in an iron lung and he'd still try to play, so I'm expecting him to go.

Groin pulls/strains suck. Slow to heal and easy to re-aggravate. Let’s hope at least one of the two can get near full speed by Th/Fri - but our B12 tourney roster may be near what we have for the Dance. Get the rabbits foot(feet) out.

 

[madguy30]

I still can't believe we allowed BYU to shoot 50% from 3 on 36 attempts. I know we were down our 2 best perimeter defenders, but if the drop off is that steep...we are going to need both guys for our Thursday/Friday game.

Allowed?

Even if wide open all the time that's an exceptional hit rate.

 

[NYCYFan]

What’s ridiculous is not comparing teams in the 3-5 seed range and realizing Iowa state still stands out to get a 3 over many of them not even counting our injuries.

I don't think it's so controversial to say that Iowa State COULD get a 4 seed. I'm not saying that they won't get a 3 seed but if they are a 4, it's not so egregious because their resume in the last 2 months has not been good while others have caught up to them.

 

[madguy30]

I don't think it's so controversial to say that Iowa State COULD get a 4 seed. I'm not saying that they won't get a 3 seed but if they are a 4, it's not so egregious because their resume in the last 2 months has not been good while others have caught up to them.

Are these resumes over the last month or two much better?

2024–25 Kentucky Wildcats men's basketball team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Penn State on senior day. Ouch.

2024–25 Wisconsin Badgers men's basketball team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Losing at TCU. Ouch.

2024–25 Texas Tech Red Raiders basketball team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2024–25 Texas A&M Aggies men's basketball team - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Cyinthenorth]

3pt defense % is largely random. BYU is a good shooting team - but it was just as much luck as defense that they went 18-36 against us and 6-28 against Houston. Hell, they scored as many points against us from 3-pt shots as they scored against Houston TOTAL.

Is it random? I think some teams just defend the 3 point line well and some really don't. Our selling out to trap defense creates a lot of nice looks for opposing teams. Byu in particular has fed on us the last 2 years.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Think a 13 or 14 seed is as good as BYU?

No, but any team can get hot from 3 in March. We seem to welcome if not openly invite teams to shoot 3s

 

[Cloned4Life]

I don't think it's so controversial to say that Iowa State COULD get a 4 seed. I'm not saying that they won't get a 3 seed but if they are a 4, it's not so egregious because their resume in the last 2 months has not been good while others have caught up to them.

Since that fun KU home game, we’ve beat one NCAA tourney team