2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections

[cyclones500]

Oklahoma St.: 87.8% (55.2% 1st, 32.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 65.6% (37.9% 1st, 27.7% 2nd)
Baylor: 42.8% (7.0% 1st, 35.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 3.7% (0.0% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 31.9%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 10.9%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 1.2%

ISU record chances:
6-6: 12.1%
7-5: 53.9%
8-4: 34.0%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 10.8%

I gave this a "Sad" rating, but would like option to give multiple ratings, such as "informative" because I appreciate the consistent compilation throughout the season, and it'd be easy to just give up at this point.

What a difference a week makes. This was the 11/7 listing:

Oklahoma: 78.6% (52.4% 1st, 26.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 72.5% (35.0% 1st, 37.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 29.9% (8.3% 1st, 21.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 18.7% (4.3% 1st, 14.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
TCU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 53.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 17.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 10.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 9.0%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 2.4%

ISU record chances:
6-6: 3.5%
7-5: 24.2%
8-4: 48.5%
9-3: 23.9%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.3%
8-4: 15.2%
9-3: 93.9%

 

[Jdk]

To many numbers let’s cue up the song blurred lines!!

 

[Ostateman1]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past four years, and I'm bringing it back again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oklahoma: 61.8% (37.9% 1st, 23.9% 2nd)
Texas: 55.5% (30.7% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 26.7% (11.5% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 24.4% (9.7% 1st, 14.7% 2nd)
Baylor: 18.8% (7.3% 1st, 11.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.2% (1.3% 1st, 3.9% 2nd)
TCU: 3.5% (0.9% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.3% (0.4% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.7% (0.3% 1st, 1.4% 2nd)
Kansas: yeah right

(Texas is ranked 9th in Massey right now, which explains their high odds.)

Here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 2% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/Texas: 28.4%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 11.0%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 10.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.9%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 8.1%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Texas: 5.6%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.9%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 2.7%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 2.4%
Texas/Texas Tech: 2.2%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.3% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
3-9: 0.1%
4-8: 1.0%
5-7: 5.8%
6-6: 16.7%
7-5: 28.5%
8-4: 28.9%
9-3: 15.5%
10-2: 3.5%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.6%
8-4: 31.1%
9-3: 90.9%
10-2: 100.0%

This post aged quite well

 

[JM4CY]

This post aged quite well

So now you’re here to just be a straight up d*ck. Cool.