Big 12 Tournament Seed Probabilities (Long)

[HoopsTournament]

I ran all 1024 possible scenarios remaining for the big 12 tournament along with the Massey predicted probability of wins to come up with the probability of seed for each team.

#1
Kansas - 99.97%
West Virginia - 0.03%

#2
West Virginia - 51.00%
Oklahoma - 33.84%
Texas - 13.83%
Baylor - 1.30%
Kansas - 0.03%

#3
Oklahoma - 39.93%
West Virginia - 31.66%
Texas - 18.46%
Baylor - 9.38%
Iowa State - 0.58%

#4
Texas - 37.25%
Baylor - 27.73%
Oklahoma - 17.59%
West Virginia - 12.29%
Iowa State - 5.14%

#5
Baylor - 54.52%
Iowa State - 17.48%
Texas - 16.85%
Oklahoma - 5.63%
West Virginia - 5.02%
Texas Tech - 0.49%

#6
Iowa State - 71.85%
Texas - 13.61%
Baylor - 6.60%
Texas Tech - 4.92%
Oklahoma - 3.01%

#7
Texas Tech - 94.59%
Iowa State - 4.94%
Baylor - 0.47%

#8
Kansas State - 91.36%
Oklahoma State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.65%

#9
Oklahoma State - 91.09%
Kansas State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.92%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.43%
Oklahoma State - 0.91%
Kansas State - 0.95%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (0.58%)
Baylor - 0.49%
Texas Tech - 0.09%

#4 (5.14%)
Texas (4.74%)
Oklahoma (0.40%)

#5 (17.48%)
Baylor (12.10%)
Oklahoma (2.93%)
Texas (1.25%)
West Virginia (1.20%)

#6 (71.85%)
Oklahoma (31.88%)
West Virginia (18.86%)
Texas (15.79%)
Baylor (5.32%)

#7 (4.94%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian (4.85%)
Kansas State (0.05%)
Oklahoma State (0.04%)

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma (3.19%)
Texas (1.13%)
West Virginia (0.54%)
Baylor (0.09%)

So our most likely seed is #6, and the most likely opponent is Oklahoma. I will update the probabilities after the games on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and during the day on Saturday.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Some other tidbits:

Our most likely scenario is a win against OSU and loss at KU. Here are the probabilities if that happens:

#4: 0.65%
#5: 16.86%
#6: 77.45%
#7: 5.03%

If we win both, here are the probabilities:

#3: 3.48%
#4: 27.88%
#5: 30.41%
#6: 38.23%

So even if we win both, our most likely seed is #6.

If we lose both, here are the probabilities:

#6: 87.22%
#7: 12.78%

So even if we lose both, our most likely seed is #6.

 

[HornacekFan1414]

Well, given how OU has struggled lately, maybe they are a better match up than Baylor or WVU. Anyway you look at it, we need our fans to flood that arena Thursday and make it as much of a home game as possible ( and the 6 seed means many KU fans will probably sell their tickets to us)...

 

[stevefrench]

I really don't want to see WVU again. Hoping they end up on the other side of the bracket.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Here is the scenario where KU would be a #2 seed (and ISU would be a #6 seed in these scenarios):

Massey win probabilities in parenthesis.

ISU defeats OSU (88% chance)
UT defeats KU (40% chance)
BU defeats OU (18% chance)
WVU defeats TTU (82% chance)
OSU defeats UT (43% chance)
WVU defeats BU (48% chance)
ISU defeats KU (19% chance)
TCU defeats OU (14% chance)

Multiplying all the probabilities gets you a 0.03% chance of that happening. So if we are the #6 seed, we will most likely avoid KU until the title (if either of us get there) (and also may sell tickets to us on Thursday).

 

[andybernard]

At the beginning of the season, if someone would have told me we had a better chance of being a 7 seed than a 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament, I would have said "Shyeah".

Also, I'm watching Wayne's World on netflix right now.

 

[83Clone]

I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?

 

[MatthiasWRNL]

Either way, going to be a tough game. We match up well against OU. If buddy is the only one scoring we will win.

 

[CyKings]

I ran all 1024 possible scenarios remaining for the big 12 tournament along with the Massey predicted probability of wins to come up with the probability of seed for each team.

#1
Kansas - 99.97%
West Virginia - 0.03%

#2
West Virginia - 51.00%
Oklahoma - 33.84%
Texas - 13.83%
Baylor - 1.30%
Kansas - 0.03%

#3
Oklahoma - 39.93%
West Virginia - 31.66%
Texas - 18.46%
Baylor - 9.38%
Iowa State - 0.58%

#4
Texas - 37.25%
Baylor - 27.73%
Oklahoma - 17.59%
West Virginia - 12.29%
Iowa State - 5.14%

#5
Baylor - 54.52%
Iowa State - 17.48%
Texas - 16.85%
Oklahoma - 5.63%
West Virginia - 5.02%
Texas Tech - 0.49%

#6
Iowa State - 71.85%
Texas - 13.61%
Baylor - 6.60%
Texas Tech - 4.92%
Oklahoma - 3.01%

#7
Texas Tech - 94.59%
Iowa State - 4.94%
Baylor - 0.47%

#8
Kansas State - 91.36%
Oklahoma State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.65%

#9
Oklahoma State - 91.09%
Kansas State - 7.99%
Texas Christian - 0.92%

#10
Texas Christian - 98.43%
Oklahoma State - 0.91%
Kansas State - 0.95%

For Iowa State, here are the probabilities by seed and possible matchups:

#3 (0.58%)
Baylor - 0.49%
Texas Tech - 0.09%

#4 (5.14%)
Texas (4.74%)
Oklahoma (0.40%)

#5 (17.48%)
Baylor (12.10%)
Oklahoma (2.93%)
Texas (1.25%)
West Virginia (1.20%)

#6 (71.85%)
Oklahoma (31.88%)
West Virginia (18.86%)
Texas (15.79%)
Baylor (5.32%)

#7 (4.94%)
First Round Opponent:
Texas Christian (4.85%)
Kansas State (0.05%)
Oklahoma State (0.04%)

Quarterfinal Opponent:
Oklahoma (3.19%)
Texas (1.13%)
West Virginia (0.54%)
Baylor (0.09%)

So our most likely seed is #6, and the most likely opponent is Oklahoma. I will update the probabilities after the games on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and during the day on Saturday.

This is awesome! Was thinking about doing this, but I thought it would take too long lol. Thanks!

 

[HoopsTournament]

I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?

Here is the scenario where we end up #7 even if we win 1 of last 2:

Oklahoma beats Baylor
Tech beats West Virginia
West Virginia beats Baylor
Tech beats Kansas State

If all 4 of these happen we, will end up in a 3 or 4 way tie with Baylor or Texas and we lose the tiebreakers and finish 7th.

You are right that we win a two-way tiebreaker with Tech, but we don't win 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers.

 

[CyKings]

I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?

3 Way tie with Baylor, Tech, and ISU... puts us at the 7 seed. That or if we lose both and Tech wins both.

 

[chuckd4735]

I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

No?

There is another scenario where Tech, ISU and Baylor all finish 9-9, and we lose the 3 way tiebreaker.

 

[HoopsTournament]

This is awesome! Was thinking about doing this, but I thought it would take too long lol. Thanks!

I probably should have been doing other things like sleeping.

 

[theshadow]

There is another scenario where Tech, ISU and Baylor all finish 9-9, and we lose the 3 way tiebreaker.

And that would include Baylor forfeiting a previous game. They already have 10 wins.

 

[theshadow]

I don't have all the tiebreakers memorized, but I thought we could wrap up 6 (at worst) by either beating OSU or WVU beating Tech, because either another win by us or loss by Tech assures us no worse than tieing them, and since we split I assume the next tie breaker goes to us since we beat KU.

A loss by Tech at WVU on Wednesday slots them at #7. An ISU win over OSU Monday doesn't necessarily mean the same.

 

[CyKings]

A loss by Tech at WVU on Wednesday slots them at #7. An ISU win over OSU Monday doesn't necessarily mean the same.

Have to have 2 different things happen for ISU to not get 7 - Any 2 of the following:

ISU W over OSU
BU W @ OU
TTU L @ WVU
ISU W @ KU
BU W over WVU
TTU L to KSU

If only 1 of those things happen - ISU falls to the 7 seed.

 

[HoopsTournament]

A loss by Tech at WVU on Wednesday slots them at #7. An ISU win over OSU Monday doesn't necessarily mean the same.

Right. Tech has to win both to have a shot at any 3-way ties. A win by us does not clinch #6. A loss by Tech does clinch #6 (or better) for us.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Have to have 2 different things happen for ISU to not get 7 - Any 2 of the following:

ISU W over OSU
BU W @ OU
TTU L @ WVU
ISU W @ KU
BU W over WVU
TTU L to KSU

If only 1 of those things happen - ISU falls to the 7 seed.

You are correct; however, if Tech loses at least one, you don't need any of the others.

 

[dahliaclone]

Basically root for WVU over TT on Wednesday after we beat OSU tomorrow and we're no worse than 6 seed

 

[cyclones12321]

Hate to say it but, I hope ku beats texas