Bubble Watch

[coolerifyoudid]

Never stop trolling, ESPN. Never stop.

Northwestern [18-5 (7-3), RPI: 31, SOS: 119] Is this it? Is it going to happen? Is Northwestern's long institutional nightmare over? Will the suffering of the disproportionate share of sportswriters who attended NU finally cease? The answer is, yeah. Probably so! The Wildcats are far from safe at this point, particularly given that their nonconference schedule and lack of elite wins could put them at a glaring disadvantage in a head-to-head nitty-gritty comparison. But as long as the Wildcats don't totally pull an Iowa in the final month of the regular season, it shouldn't come to that.

 

[cyclones500]

Here's CBS daily bubble watch.

Looks like they're tracking day-by-day matchups with bubble impact, instead of a weekly roundup (although they'll probably do that, too)

 

[cyclones500]

My Bubble-Watch, post 2-9.

Whatever extreme/meager chance BYU had to hover in the fringe bubble picture burst badly ... Lost by 16 to Pepperdine.

As far as teams in realistic position to help their cause:
* IU lost at home to Purdue. Low-impact loss, even at home, but opportunities are dwindling.
* Utah stayed in "wuh?" territory, but one bad loss probably is doom.
* Wichita State still in the mix by avoiding a bad loss.
* Not a lock, but would have to play its way out: SMU.

 

[BryceC]

Indianas RPI suuuucks. They are in trouble if you ask me even with awesome noncon wins.

 

[isutrevman]

Wow Indiana has fallen fast. Weren't they like a top 5-10 team at the beginning of the year? Talk about underachieving.

 

[BryceC]

Injuries, they are just slammed by them.

 

[awd4cy]

Wow Indiana has fallen fast. Weren't they like a top 5-10 team at the beginning of the year? Talk about underachieving.

Lost their best player. Also lost another role player I believe.

 

[brokenloginagain]

probably the best year ever to be a bubble team. no mid majors, maybe only 7-8 teams combined from Pac12/SEC. I think SI said half the field will be Big10, ACC, and B12.

 

[cyclones500]

Indianas RPI suuuucks. They are in trouble if you ask me even with awesome noncon wins.

Yeah, IU is clinging to those big wins. Six of their losses are to top-25, which doesn't hurt. But record includes home loss to Nebraska, and the loss to Fort Wayne, which seemed somewhat forgivable at the time, is now pretty bad. (IPFW was a preseason favorite to win Summit).

 

[NoCreativity]

Yeah, IU is clinging to those big wins. Six of their losses are to top-25, which doesn't hurt. But record includes home loss to Nebraska, and the loss to Fort Wayne, which seemed somewhat forgivable at the time, is now pretty bad. (IPFW was a preseason favorite to win Summit).

How is Indianas RPI still that bad? You would think at 15-10 with wins over Kansas and UNC would at least keep them around the Top 50.

They also played Louisville and Butler in non-conf.

 

[Gunnerclone]

How is Indianas RPI still that bad? You would think at 15-10 with wins over Kansas and UNC would at least keep them around the Top 50.

They also played Louisville and Butler in non-conf.

You of all people should know the answer to this.

 

[isufbcurt]

How is Indianas RPI still that bad? You would think at 15-10 with wins over Kansas and UNC would at least keep them around the Top 50.

They also played Louisville and Butler in non-conf.

Hint, it starts with Big and ends with 10

 

[NoCreativity]

You of all people should know the answer to this.

Or you could just try to answer my question instead of trolling. Explain it to me. Because they lost to Nebraska and Fort Wayne?

The rest of their losses in the Big 10 are against potential tournament teams. I just asked a simple question on why they arent a little higher than in the 70's with those 2 huge wins.

 

[Cyballzz]

Yeah, IU is clinging to those big wins. Six of their losses are to top-25, which doesn't hurt. But record includes home loss to Nebraska, and the loss to Fort Wayne, which seemed somewhat forgivable at the time, is now pretty bad. (IPFW was a preseason favorite to win Summit).

Its amazing to me that non conference schedule that has you playing 3,4,5 and 7 in the RPI has an SOS of 172. Then you look at the rest of that schedule and it was either elite or complete garbage.

 

[cyclones500]

Its amazing to me that non conference schedule that has you playing 3,4,5 and 7 in the RPI has an SOS of 172. Then you look at the rest of that schedule and it was either elite or complete garbage.

True. Seven non-conference games to teams 200-and-below. Youch.

For the record, ISU's resume is by no means unassailable, but there's less dragging it down compared to Indiana, and that's even with less benefit from major wins.

 

[Cyballzz]

True. Seven non-conference games to teams 200-and-below. Youch.

For the record, ISU's resume is by no means unassailable, but there's less dragging it down compared to Indiana, and that's even with less benefit from major wins.

Agree on our resume. Its a 7/8 seed resume right now no doubt. No catastrophic losses (+150), 2 bad losses (100-150... Iowa is technically 96), a ton of missed opportunities (4 top 25 losses) and really just the 1 huge win (Top 5).

Survive Saturday and the remaining 6 opponents are Top 100 RPI and all but 1 are Top 40.

February 25th is huge to get to that 6 line.

 

[srjclone]

Feel like Eammon hit the nail on the head with this Bubble Watch post:

"Despite Texas' struggles this season, Iowa State's loss in Austin on Tuesday was not exactly the shocker of the century. Beating Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse -- as ISU did on Feb. 4 -- takes a toll. It's difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that level of intensity in a sleepy gym like the Frank Erwin Center. Saturday, when similarly struggling Oklahoma comes to Ames, offers a good chance for the Cyclones to refocus."

 

[VeloClone]

probably the best year ever to be a bubble team. no mid majors, maybe only 7-8 teams combined from Pac12/SEC. I think SI said half the field will be Big10, ACC, and B12.

34 from those three conferences? That would be amazing if it happened. 34 of 39?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Feel like Eammon hit the nail on the head with this Bubble Watch post:

"Despite Texas' struggles this season, Iowa State's loss in Austin on Tuesday was not exactly the shocker of the century. Beating Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse -- as ISU did on Feb. 4 -- takes a toll. It's difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that level of intensity in a sleepy gym like the Frank Erwin Center. Saturday, when similarly struggling Oklahoma comes to Ames, offers a good chance for the Cyclones to refocus."

This quote is an equivalent level of soothing to this...

 

[Clones8686]

I love bubble watch, I especially love that they use "lock" in the truest sense of the term. As our pals over to the east have shown, a team considered top 5 can completely collapse, so you don't get a lock unless you could literally lose out and still be in.