College Football 12 Team Playoff Analysis

[cymonw1980]

Since we have the current* rules for how the 12 team playoff will be selected and we have the playoff standings going back to 2014, we can see what the make up of the proposed 12 team playoff would have been from 2014-2022.

*Current rules could change based on all of the re-alignment. For example, instead of 6 conf champs, drop it down to 5. However, hard to say if that would happen in 2024 or if it would have to wait given the current bowl agreements/tv payouts are through 2026.

First Chart:

Using the 2014-2022 playoff rankings we can see who the 12 team playoff participants would have been each year. In addition, using the new conference membership for 2024 we can see how many berths the 2024 conference members would have had over the last 9 seasons:



NOTE:

B10 would have had 10/18 teams in at least one playoff. Teams that would not have been in any of the first nine, 12 team playoffs are: RUT, MD, UCLA, NW, ILL, MIN, NEB, PUR

SEC would have had 10/16 teams. Teams that would not have made it: SC, Tex, UK, Miz, Ark, Vandy

B12 would have had 11/16 teams participate in at least one playoff. Teams that would have missed: ASU, TT, Kan, BYU, WVU (tex is one of 4 current B12 teams that would not have made a single playoff in the last 9 years, the other 6, ISU, KSU, OU, TCU, Bay, OSU all would have been in at least 1)

ACC would have had 5/14 teams included in at least one 12 team playoff. Clemson (7), FSU (3), Miami, UNC, Pitt (1 each).


Second Chart:

In this chart I compared the berths by 2022 members vs. 2024 conf members. For example, for the B12 it would be the ten 2022 members and for 2024 it is the 16 new members (-ou/t, +cin/byu/ucf/hou/uu/asu/ua/cu).



NOTE:

B10 adds 8 berths with their adds of UW (3), USC (3), Oregon (2).
SEC adds 6 berths from OU
B12 adds 10 berths with uu (3), ucf (2), cinci (2), and CU, UA, Hou (1 each), and lose 6 from OU
PAC Loses 13 (3 each: UW, USC, UU, 2: Oregon, 1 each: UA, CU)

Berths Per Season 2022 vs. 2024:
B10: 2.9 to 3.8 (+0.9)
SEC: 2.8 to 3.4 (+0.7)
B12: 1.8 to 2.2 (+0.4)
ACC: 1.4 to 1.4 (flat)
PAC: 1.6 to 0.4 (-1.2)
ND: 0.4 to 0.4 (flat)
Other: 1.1 to 0.6 (-0.5)

By eliminating one of the conf champ spots, you open up an at large bid (0.4 berths from remaining PAC+0.6 from "others" = 1 conf champ spot, everyone else can continue to average the same number teams that they have in the past 9 seasons to fill 5 champ spots + 7 at large spots).


Net, I think the B12 did pretty well. They have a relatively deep conference that should have opportunities to get multiple teams in a playoff in the future. Last year, KSU and TCU would have both qualified as well as Utah. Two years ago, Cinci, OSU, Utah, and Bay would have all been in. That is 7 new members all represented in the past 2 years (avg of 3.5 berths/year!).

 

[cymonw1980]

Sources:

2014-2021 Playoff Seeding:

College Football Playoff expansion: How a 12-team field would have looked in each of last eight seasons

Here's a glimpse at how the brackets would have looked if the CFP had started with 12 teams in 2014

www.cbssports.com

2022 Playoff Seeding:

College Football Playoff expansion: How a 12-team bracket would have looked for 2022 postseason

Here's a glimpse at how the CFP would have looked if the field expanded to 12 teams this season

www.cbssports.com

 

[CascadeClone]

So on average Big12 will probably get 2 berths. Sounds about right.

Meanwhile SEC and B1G will get 7 between them, leaving 2 for the ACC+ND and 1 for the G5 flavor of the year.

It will be really important for the Big12 to win some of those CFP games, esp ones against the also-rans from B1G and SEC. Or there will be a push to downgrade the Big12 to G5ish status.

 

[Clonehomer]

Problem with that is that these new teams will now play other teams that are playoff bound. There’s only a finite number of wins in a conference. So do OuT still get the same record as they did before? And at whos expense? What about USC and Oregon? They feasted on the PAC’s lesser teams. Will there schedule be Big10 West heavy to allow them cupcake schedules going forward? And how much will politics come into play when you have a 10-2 Big12 team vs an 8-4 SEC team? You know the eye test will have to come into play there, right? And how’s the power dynamic of ESPN vs Fox play into that game?

2024 and beyond will be a soap opera on how these CFP berths are awarded. I feel like the Big12 is in a strong position, but I’m sure there be some fuckery going on to keep the P2 in power. There’s too much money not to.

 

[cymonw1980]

Problem with that is that these new teams will now play other teams that are playoff bound. There’s only a finite number of wins in a conference. So do OuT still get the same record as they did before? And at whos expense? What about USC and Oregon? They feasted on the PAC’s lesser teams. Will there schedule be Big10 West heavy to allow them cupcake schedules going forward? And how much will politics come into play when you have a 10-2 Big12 team vs an 8-4 SEC team? You know the eye test will have to come into play there, right? And how’s the power dynamic of ESPN vs Fox play into that game?

2024 and beyond will be a soap opera on how these CFP berths are awarded. I feel like the Big12 is in a strong position, but I’m sure there be some fuckery going on to keep the P2 in power. There’s too much money not to.

Honestly, I think there are two big risks:

1) The P2 end up with 8 Bids due to the "eye test", only 1 at large bid available for ACC/B12/ND so more often then not you end up with only the champ going.

2) With all of the money coming in for the P2 they either a. redirect TV dollars to pay athletes (not allowed now, but they could change the rules), or b. given the extra tv money they just have their donors move the money to their collectives.

I think #1 is the near term risk. But #2 is the much larger, long term risk.

 

[DarkStar]

The CFP has always been a moving target where the criteria is adjusted to get the desired results. Past rankings would have been adjusted to get more teams from the desired conferences into the playoffs.

 

[cyfanatic13]

Honestly, I think there are two big risks:

1) The P2 end up with 8 Bids due to the "eye test", only 1 at large bid available for ACC/B12/ND so more often then not you end up with only the champ going.

2) With all of the money coming in for the P2 they either a. redirect TV dollars to pay athletes (not allowed now, but they could change the rules), or b. given the extra tv money they just have their donors move the money to their collectives.

I think #1 is the near term risk. But #2 is the much larger, long term risk.

#1 would obviously suck, but I would take it over the P2 just breaking off and doing their own thing.

My biggest pet peeve with college football is not automatically allowing conference champions in the playoff (for the P5). It’s the only sport at any level I can think of that winning your conference, division, league, etc. doesn’t get you into the playoffs automatically.

 

[HawaiiClone]

Sources:

2014-2021 Playoff Seeding:

College Football Playoff expansion: How a 12-team field would have looked in each of last eight seasons

Here's a glimpse at how the brackets would have looked if the CFP had started with 12 teams in 2014

www.cbssports.com

2022 Playoff Seeding:

College Football Playoff expansion: How a 12-team bracket would have looked for 2022 postseason

Here's a glimpse at how the CFP would have looked if the field expanded to 12 teams this season

www.cbssports.com

They might want to change how the top 4 ranked conference champions automatically get a first round bye. With the Pac being a diminished league (at the least), there's a fairly good chance that this could happen: the fourth best conference champ finishes the regular season with 3 losses (e.g. 2 conf, 1 non-conf), then goes on to win its conf champ game and gets the first round bye. However, a significantly higher ranked team that went undefeated in the regular season, but lost in its conf champ game doesn't get a bye. Doing away with that for (at least) the 4th-6th best conf champs might be a bargaining chip for appeasing the SEC and B1G. (The auto bid for the 6th best conf champ might be a thing of the past, too).

 

[HawaiiClone]

#1 would obviously suck, but I would take it over the P2 just breaking off and doing their own thing.

My biggest pet peeve with college football is not automatically allowing conference champions in the playoff (for the P5). It’s the only sport at any level I can think of that winning your conference, division, league, etc. doesn’t get you into the playoffs automatically.

But doesn't having 6 auto bids for conference champions essentially give auto bids for the P5 (barring a down year where your conf champ isn't one of the 6 best conf champs)?

 

[cymonw1980]

#1 would obviously suck, but I would take it over the P2 just breaking off and doing their own thing.

My biggest pet peeve with college football is not automatically allowing conference champions in the playoff (for the P5). It’s the only sport at any level I can think of that winning your conference, division, league, etc. doesn’t get you into the playoffs automatically.

At this point, I think we are down to a P4. Not sure what happens to PAC, but whatever they do it will be a G6 league now.

Looking back at the last 9 seasons, the remaining G5 + Remaining PAC teams would have averaged 0.7 teams per playoff the last 9 years. So, giving them at least 1 slot for the highest ranked conf champ, plus adding another at large spot a 2nd highest ranked conf champ from those leagues could fight for (or if one of the other conferences has a lower ranked team win the title game they could get a second team in - for example, 2020, G5 would have had two of the top 6 ranked conf champs knocking out the PAC).

So, I would be in favor of dropping one conf champ at this point and making it top 5 conf champs, top 7 at large.

 

[mj4cy]

I can see it shaking out to the following averages (assuming ACC is done at some point)

SEC: 4 teams
Big10: 4 teams
Big12: 2 teams
G5: 1 team
ND/other: 1 team (could also be an extra SEC/B1G if ND is down)

 

[NWICY]

#1 would obviously suck, but I would take it over the P2 just breaking off and doing their own thing.

My biggest pet peeve with college football is not automatically allowing conference champions in the playoff (for the P5). It’s the only sport at any level I can think of that winning your conference, division, league, etc. doesn’t get you into the playoffs automatically.

You can't be upset if you don't play a underdog. Keep feeding the P2 narrative that way.