While I tend to agree with you, didnt TX and OU 'just' apply for acceptance into the SEC but it stated for the 2025-2026 school year? Or would that be done to save face and they'll actually get their lawyers working on it and 're-apply' for sooner?
(p.s. why does it bug me to type the word 'sooner' now?)
It could happen that OU & UT end up in the SEC for the 2022 or even 2023 season, but a lot has to happen.
There has to be a settlement with the Big12 and the SEC would need to renegotiate some of it's agreements. I would be surprised if Alabama, Florida, A&M and Georgia are going to want their per year media rights to go down by adding 2 schools.
1) The SEC agreement with CBS runs through 2023 (3 more seasons). The CBS deal is worth $55M. Maybe CBS would be willing to end the agreement early. By would would they give up a high viewership programming which is at a vastly discounted price compared to 2024 $. ESPN is paying over $300M annually for the SEC's traditional 2:30 game.
2) ESPN's media rights deal with the Big12 is valued somewhere between $400-$450 for the 2021 to 2024 period. No way I see ESPN paying the Big12 those amounts based on the GOR agreement- where the conferences receive the money directly. But who knows, maybe ESPN would pay OU & Texas for being in the SEC AND honor their Big12 media rights agreement. Disney has shareholders, so that would surprise me.
Also the 12 team playoff is a few years away, so bringing in OU & Texas just reduces the SEC schools share of playoff money since the current playoff monies go directly to each P5 conference, who then splits to schools.
IMO there are going to be some bold moves over the next year prior to the Big 10 and Pac 10 media rights agreements are re-negotiated.
- OU/UT to SEC is the first move
- I would be very surprised if the Pac 12 remains intact if their media rights payments don't increase significantly over current levels. Schools like USC, UCLA, Washington will want a better financial deal than the Pac 12 currently offers.
- Then the ACC agreement with ESPN will come under scrutiny by some of it's elite schools like Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina. No way they want to make $30-$40M less per year once the SEC and Big10 agreements are renegotiated. Their current deal with ESPN runs for 15 more years. IMO part of ESPN's strategic move to destabilize the Big12 is so they can use some of the $450M from the Big12 media rights deal to improve the ACC deal for Clemson, UNC, Florida State and maybe entice Notre Dame to join the ACC.