Posted this in the "I'm worried" thread but more relevant here.
This was our toughest remaining game in a tough stretch and going into the game I saw our likely range of reasonable possibilities in the final 8 games of the the season as 7-1 at best and 3-5 the worst. I still see this as true. We lost the most likely one in our final 8. Here is our expected RPI and projected seed in any of the likely scenarios for the final 7 games:
3-4 / 20-10 expected RPI 19 Seed 5/6
4-3 / 21-9 expected RPI 17 Seed 5
5-2 / 22-8 expected RPI 12 - Seed 4
6-1 / 23-7 expected RPI 11 Seed 3/4
7-0 / 24-4 expected RPI 9 Seed 3
In other words even if we don't win another game outside of Hilton in the regular season we still finish with a top 20 RPI and a likely top 6 seed. If we want a top 3 or 4 seed though we need to finish 5-2 or get help in the B12 tourney. Going into this game the difference between finishing 7-1 and 5-3 was 3 RPI spots. Now we do any of the above scenarios and win a couple in KC we are a top 4 seed regardless. Hell if we only beat TCU on the road and win 1 in KC we are a top 4 seed. In other words we have a VERY good chance of being a top 4 seed and in good position for the tourney maybe even get lucky with Omaha. Mark me down as not worried and enjoying the ride!
This was our toughest remaining game in a tough stretch and going into the game I saw our likely range of reasonable possibilities in the final 8 games of the the season as 7-1 at best and 3-5 the worst. I still see this as true. We lost the most likely one in our final 8. Here is our expected RPI and projected seed in any of the likely scenarios for the final 7 games:
3-4 / 20-10 expected RPI 19 Seed 5/6
4-3 / 21-9 expected RPI 17 Seed 5
5-2 / 22-8 expected RPI 12 - Seed 4
6-1 / 23-7 expected RPI 11 Seed 3/4
7-0 / 24-4 expected RPI 9 Seed 3
In other words even if we don't win another game outside of Hilton in the regular season we still finish with a top 20 RPI and a likely top 6 seed. If we want a top 3 or 4 seed though we need to finish 5-2 or get help in the B12 tourney. Going into this game the difference between finishing 7-1 and 5-3 was 3 RPI spots. Now we do any of the above scenarios and win a couple in KC we are a top 4 seed regardless. Hell if we only beat TCU on the road and win 1 in KC we are a top 4 seed. In other words we have a VERY good chance of being a top 4 seed and in good position for the tourney maybe even get lucky with Omaha. Mark me down as not worried and enjoying the ride!
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