ESPN FPI and SOS by Conference

[cymonw1980]

ESPN has a Football Power Index that they use to rank all 130 FBS teams (description below). Included in this ranking is a Strength of Schedule ranking as well.

The Big 12 has done very well on both:

Average of FPI
Conf	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg FPI
SEC	25.4	29.8	35.5	38.4	29.2	32.2	39.5	28.8	32.3
B12	40.1	41.9	41.3	39.7	39.1	39.9	37.6	29.1	38.6
PAC	32.7	38.3	40.6	42.0	45.3	42.0	43.4	61.3	43.2
ACC	45.9	46.6	39.5	35.5	47.1	56.4	54.4	40.6	45.8
b10	47.9	50.9	50.7	45.3	41.6	41.9	41.5	40.7	45.1
P5 Total	38.5	41.6	41.6	40.2	40.4	42.7	43.6	40.1	41.1

Average of SOS
Conf	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
SEC	19.4	19.7	29.0	38.7	27.4	25.1	11.6	19.3	23.8
B12	26.9	29.0	29.0	29.2	26.7	26.0	22.2	9.1	24.8
PAC	19.3	27.6	23.4	34.7	35.8	25.1	73.3	65.8	38.1
ACC	46.1	39.9	33.6	23.7	44.3	57.9	36.9	39.7	40.3
b10	50.6	48.5	47.4	40.1	30.1	31.1	41.1	36.7	40.7
P5 Total	33.2	33.3	33.0	33.5	33.2	33.7	36.8	34.7	33.9

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

 

[cymonw1980]

Here is ISU's FPI and SOS since 2014 including projected numbers for 2021:

Average of FPI	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	85.0​	79.0​	66.0​	26.0​	38.0​	22.0​	10.0​	4.0​	41.3​

Average of SOS	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	6.0​	4.0​	23.0​	14.0​	29.0​	16.0​	7.0​	6.0​	13.1​

 

[somecyguy]

Here is ISU's FPI and SOS since 2014 including projected numbers for 2021:

Average of FPI	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	85.0​	79.0​	66.0​	26.0​	38.0​	22.0​	10.0​	4.0​	41.3​

Average of SOS	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	6.0​	4.0​	23.0​	14.0​	29.0​	16.0​	7.0​	6.0​	13.1​

Even given my skepticism of the FPI, the absurdity of those numbers is just amazing.

 

[BCClone]

Here is ISU's FPI and SOS since 2014 including projected numbers for 2021:

Average of FPI	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	85.0​	79.0​	66.0​	26.0​	38.0​	22.0​	10.0​	4.0​	41.3​

Average of SOS	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 Proj	Avg SOS
Iowa State	6.0​	4.0​	23.0​	14.0​	29.0​	16.0​	7.0​	6.0​	13.1​

Where in the conference would each year put us?

 

[cymonw1980]

Where in the conference would each year put us?

Since 2014, ISU's average strength of schedule has been 13.1 overall. That puts us 3rd in the country over that period of time (includes projected #6 schedule this year). The only two teams with more difficult Avg SOS since 2014 are LSU and Auburn (each have averaged an SOS of 10.9 since 2014).

Looking at each year ISU has had the 1st, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and projected 4th most difficult schedules in the conference (that's right, ISU is projected to have the 6th most difficult schedule in the country, but that will only be 4th most difficult in the conference - Texas 4th, Kansas 3rd, and TCU 5th have more difficult projected schedules in 2021):

 

[cymonw1980]

Since 2014, ISU's average strength of schedule has been 13.1 overall. That puts us 3rd in the country over that period of time (includes projected #6 schedule this year). The only two teams with more difficult Avg SOS since 2014 are LSU and Auburn (each have averaged an SOS of 10.9 since 2014).

Looking at each year ISU has had the 1st, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and projected 4th most difficult schedules in the conference (that's right, ISU is projected to have the 6th most difficult schedule in the country, but that will only be 4th most difficult in the conference - Texas 4th, Kansas 3rd, and TCU 5th have more difficult projected schedules in 2021):


View attachment 86621

Interesting that MSU has had the most difficult avg SOS in the b10 (average of 31st in the country) which would have been behind everyone except baylor in the B12. Baylor would have been dead center compared to the b10 SOS (behind 7 teams, ahead of 7 teams).