It's pretty well known for years people think the Big12 should dissolve. But obviously the Big12 doesn't think that, and they aren't. We just missed the ship when we for whatever reason passed on Louisville.
Expansion
- Thread starter ZachRyan22
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It's pretty well known for years people think the Big12 should dissolve. But obviously the Big12 doesn't think that, and they aren't. We just missed the ship when we for whatever reason passed on Louisville.
The Oklahoma stuff is fantasy that's originating on fan boards and flowing into some of the less reputable "Frank the Tank" types...it has no basis in reality and no legs. It stems from misinterpretations of Boren's comments. As for GOR's, they are very strong but if the SEC and B1G both go ACC hunting, that conference will come apart like tinker toys...and the Big 12 will be in a position to give 6, perhaps even 8, ACC teams a soft landing spot. And if that many ACC teams find spots, the GOR will be null and void. You could even consider that adoption of 6-8 teams into the Big 12 as a merger...and it works very well if you take 8 and throw WVU in as a 9th in an eastern division. That would allow the remaining 8 Big12 teams to form a central division and continue playing one another.
You really don't understand this issue if you think lawyers and donors can get you out of contract that will cost other schools billions of dollars over the length of the contract.
BTW their fans don't understand that either.
Money isn't the issue for staying. They are making more than other conferences now. That means the issue has to be field performance. They have only themselves to blame for that.
I agree that the big 12 should go back to 12. I think that solves all these issues. The schedule is too difficult right now for everyone including Texas and OK.
BTW their fans don't understand that either.
Money isn't the issue for staying. They are making more than other conferences now. That means the issue has to be field performance. They have only themselves to blame for that.
I agree that the big 12 should go back to 12. I think that solves all these issues. The schedule is too difficult right now for everyone including Texas and OK.
Yes, it could, but fortunately both leagues are seeking AAU schools with very large state populations...both have league networks as their primary source of income, and those require big population numbers. This is why the B1G took Rutgers, which got them into the New Jersey subscription market. Demographics almost force the hand of these leagues, and make Virginia and North Carolina...the states not specific universities...the primary targets. Very few Big 12 schools meet these criteria...even Oklahoma is lacking in subscribers with its population data, and doubly so for Kansas.
The Big 12 also has a standing policy of wanting only contiguous states, and of requiring new entrants to be AAU (if they lose that status after joining, so be it). These are, of course, policies not hard rules, but they have thus far held to these criteria very doggedly. With ACC schools the B1G can fulfill all of its requirements AND get big population numbers to spike its network subscription payouts. Ditto for the SEC.
Texas would meet this criteria, but UT makes more in the Big 12 with its LHN deal than it would even in the B1G. More importantly, both OU and UT must be in a Texas-centric league in order to control recruiting in that region...and both want to be top dogs in a league that allows them to hold ALL of their Tier 3 rights (which are what the LHN pays for...and OU also reels in 7 million through).
So while the Big 12 could be pulled apart if both the SEC and B1G made concerted moves towards it, it is...oddly...protected by its weak demographics which would not provide the network subscription numbers both leagues desperately seek. GOR's are incredibly powerful, but nothing is insurmountable...probably the only way around them is to get 75% of a league for dissolution and so remove the GOR entirely. Pretty much can't be done with Big 12, but is much more feasible with the ACC.
Further, the Big 12 is anchored by UT in a way the ACC is not "one team" centric...so if UT holds in place, the Big 12 holds tight around it. Its a bit codependent, but at this point it serves as a kind of glue that the ACC lacks. The Big 12 is the perfect vehicle for Texas, good league payout dollars AND UT keeps its hugely profitable LHN...a sweetheart deal that holds UT in place and so saves all of our bacon.
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Not after next year when the B1G inks its new TV deal. Estimates are upwards of $45 mill per school, nearly doubling what they make now and blowing away every other conference. I'm sure UT could wiggle its way around taking a lesser split as a new member given its profile.
None of this really matters. With the GoR in place no ACC teams are going anywhere, no Big 12 teams are going anywhere. Those things are solid and I think your tinker-toy theory is a bit simplistic and unrealistic.
And I think that termination point, as it approaches, will signal the future for the big 12 if nothing happens before then. Looks like it expires in 2025...I think as you approach 2020, the rest of the schools will press Texas and OK to re-up it before it expires, because as there are less and less years on it, the weaker it is. Schools will want some security beyond 5 years if they can get it. If it isn't re-upped early, I think it expires and the Big 12 experiment fades into the past.
There is an end date, no doubt, though it is a decade in the future. There is also the possibility that the league could voluntarily dissolve itself...very unlikely. Short of that, GOR's are unlike previous conference escape clauses...virtually impossible to escape without massive cost. Which is their purpose.
The B1G will be entering new contract negotiations next year, and it may go elephant hunting over the 18 months to add large numbers of subscribers to its network. If the SEC tries to match this move, as it has in the past, and the Big 12 positions itself to help with any leftovers...the ACC may end up dissected and voluntarily dissolved. It MAY hold out, if nobody caves to wanting to join the B1G/SEC...but then again it may not. the B12 must be poised to swoop in on short notice to clean up the leftovers.
If the ACC does hold out, the next critical phase arrives in the mid-20's when the B12 and ACC GOR's wind down...if one league renews for another decade it will put immense pressure on the other...which will either do the same, or crumble. Right now, revenues for the ACC are...by far...the weakest of all the P5 leagues, and that is likely to be very telling because ALL of this is about one thing. Money.
I don't trust Texas and Oklahoma oil money for a second. Their decisions are often kneejerk and misguided. Hence why the Big 12 is always in so many messes.
Agreed. The three scenarios: 1) Big 12 lives/ACC dies; 2) ACC lives/ Big 12 dies; 3) Merger.
I worry about Iowa State if 2 or 3 happens.
exactly. I don't think anyone is expecting expansion to happen (if at all) until at least 2020 and probably a few years into the 20's.
As do I. I don't think the ACC and B12 can both survive this next decade...the B1G and SEC will find a way to get to 16 each...though I think they stop there if only for political reasons. ACC teams are far more attractive to both leagues because of their locations/demographics...but if the ACC holds tight, it is possible a school like Kansas could cave in to a B1G offer...and that could start a very bad domino effect. I think that's the less likely scenario, but its not impossible and that is scary.
Grant of rights is worth at least 27 million per year. Plus other damages as well. Also legal costs would be incurred.......as well as litigation costs for the Big 12. Not sure how many donors would be willing to pay $250 million or more for Texas or Oklahoma to leave the conference. IMO, at that price they would stay. Not sure what upside there would be in going to the Pac 12.
Kansas football would fit in well with the caliber of football in the B1G. But it will not happen. No TV sets.
The problem with this is that once OU and UT leave the others will jump ship for a landing spot immediately, thereby effectively dissolving the conference and letting each of them out of the Grant of Rights clause. Even if ISU and KSU were left standing as the last two it wouldn't matter, the conference is dissolved.
