Has the Rot Started to Set In?

[alarson]

I'm not on the 'fire campbell' train yet by any means.

But those of you acting like the red flags are just because we're 1-1 are no less blind than someone wanting him fired today.

Watch enough programs over time and you'll see how much momentum plays a role. Attract players and staff on the vision of success, have success, parlay that into attracting players with visions of even greater success. Once the wheels come off of that and the trendline dips, that sell value disappears, and the program starts to enter into a spiral (sometimes a slow one, sometimes a fast one). Once you recognize that spiral has reached a point of no return, you have to move on or else you'll just be that much more in the hole for the next guy to dig out of.

For ISU, that upward trendline has all but disappeared. One could argue the *program* peaked in like 2018 for the alamo bowl season and the covid year and all its flukiness just hid that we really had plateaued as like a 7-6 program for the next few seasons (momentum stopped) before dropping down to 4-8 (momentum now headed the other way).

Campbell deserves a chance to right the ship of course, and I don't think the decision on firing him should be on the table after this season, but I think that turnaround has to happen by the end of next season (and hell, maybe we see signs of it this season, its early!).

 

[jsb]

I'm not on the 'fire campbell' train yet by any means.

But those of you acting like the red flags are just because we're 1-1 are no less blind than someone wanting him fired today.

Watch enough programs over time and you'll see how much momentum plays a role. Attract players and staff on the vision of success, have success, parlay that into attracting players with visions of even greater success. Once the wheels come off of that and the trendline dips, that sell value disappears, and the program starts to enter into a spiral (sometimes a slow one, sometimes a fast one). Once you recognize that spiral has reached a point of no return, you have to move on or else you'll just be that much more in the hole for the next guy to dig out of.

For ISU, that upward trendline has all but disappeared. One could argue the *program* peaked in like 2018 for the alamo bowl season and the covid year and all its flukiness just hid that we really had plateaued as like a 7-6 program for the next few seasons (momentum stopped) before dropping down to 4-8 (momentum now headed the other way).

Campbell deserves a chance to right the ship of course, and I don't think the decision on firing him should be on the table after this season, but I think that turnaround has to happen by the end of next season (and hell, maybe we see signs of it this season, its early!).

That's all perfectly legit. But then why are we wasting time with threads like this? This thread is just encouraging people to be miserable. And that causes people to defend the program.

If you've read this board for the last 1.5 years, I'd say that 25% of Iowa State fans post like they want him fired now.

 

[MJ271]

I'm not on the 'fire campbell' train yet by any means.

But those of you acting like the red flags are just because we're 1-1 are no less blind than someone wanting him fired today.

Watch enough programs over time and you'll see how much momentum plays a role. Attract players and staff on the vision of success, have success, parlay that into attracting players with visions of even greater success. Once the wheels come off of that and the trendline dips, that sell value disappears, and the program starts to enter into a spiral (sometimes a slow one, sometimes a fast one). Once you recognize that spiral has reached a point of no return, you have to move on or else you'll just be that much more in the hole for the next guy to dig out of.

For ISU, that upward trendline has all but disappeared. One could argue the *program* peaked in like 2018 for the alamo bowl season and the covid year and all its flukiness just hid that we really had plateaued as like a 7-6 program for the next few seasons (momentum stopped) before dropping down to 4-8 (momentum now headed the other way).

Campbell deserves a chance to right the ship of course, and I don't think the decision on firing him should be on the table after this season, but I think that turnaround has to happen by the end of next season (and hell, maybe we see signs of it this season, its early!).

I think I land in the same place as you, I just view these conversations a bit differently, similar to what @jsb said.

Even if the cautionary flags go beyond the 1-1 start, the tenor on this forum feels completely flip-flopped from what it was a week ago. That seems like a major overreaction to me, and it seems like certain people were waiting for a moment to jump on Campbell.

Ultimately my expectations for possible outcomes this season haven't changed much, and I actually think that's where the majority of fans are, just not the loudest fans here. I still start from the place of looking at last season, seeing the worst of the red flags from Campbell's tenure without the talent to cover them up (bad offensive line, bad special teams, too many turnovers and a lack of winning in the margins), and still see a team that went 4-8 and was a few plays away from a bowl. Looking at those categories this season, I do see some improvement in them (1 turnover this season vs. 4 at this point last year, only 2 penalties on Saturday, significantly improved special teams). To me, that doesn't seem work getting worked up over.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Correction: You're letting everyone know you think the chances we get back to where we've been...

Far too much stating opinion as fact to make points in this thread.

I think that because of past experience right here at ISU and statistics in general around college football.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Take the training wheels off and play football like you got a pair. That's what I want to see this weekend.

 

[alarson]

the tenor on this forum feels completely flip-flopped from what it was a week ago

I might disagree here. I think there was a lot of doubt in this team after week 1, and that's the reason there wasn't much talk\hype going into the iowa game.

 

[Cyched]

Just threw out some cottage cheese. The rot is alive and well at Casa Cyched

 

[Gunnerclone]

I'm not on the 'fire campbell' train yet by any means.

But those of you acting like the red flags are just because we're 1-1 are no less blind than someone wanting him fired today.

Watch enough programs over time and you'll see how much momentum plays a role. Attract players and staff on the vision of success, have success, parlay that into attracting players with visions of even greater success. Once the wheels come off of that and the trendline dips, that sell value disappears, and the program starts to enter into a spiral (sometimes a slow one, sometimes a fast one). Once you recognize that spiral has reached a point of no return, you have to move on or else you'll just be that much more in the hole for the next guy to dig out of.

For ISU, that upward trendline has all but disappeared. One could argue the *program* peaked in like 2018 for the alamo bowl season and the covid year and all its flukiness just hid that we really had plateaued as like a 7-6 program for the next few seasons (momentum stopped) before dropping down to 4-8 (momentum now headed the other way).

Campbell deserves a chance to right the ship of course, and I don't think the decision on firing him should be on the table after this season, but I think that turnaround has to happen by the end of next season (and hell, maybe we see signs of it this season, its early!).

I just don’t understand how people can’t even entertain this kind of take (especially the bold). That’s just how sports works outside of a few super outliers. My whole point is are we going to do the thing where we wait or should we play the percentages and skip the downward spiral that is likely to be occurring?

 

[khardbored]

Mark my words! Campbell will never take us to championship type football. He has already proven that he is an average coach at best. He is lucky in one regard. Most of Iowa State fans are not bothered by having mediocre football teams.

40ish posts in 10 years?
Strange time to make your 1st post in the last 12 months.

 

[jsb]

I might disagree here. I think there was a lot of doubt in this team after week 1, and that's the reason there wasn't much talk\hype going into the iowa game.

But why? Based on the predictions prior to the game, I'm not sure what reason people had to be mad about that game. Predict a close game, dominate and still *****.

 

[Gunnerclone]

But why? Based on the predictions prior to the game, I'm not sure what reason people had to be mad about that game. Predict a close game, dominate and still *****.

Omfg, once and for all: IT’S NOT ABOUT ONE GAME.

 

[LAClone]

Campbell-stans before 2023: “The offense/play calling/clock management is not Campbell’s fault, it’s Manning’s! Fire him!”

Campbell-stans in 2023 after Manning is fired: “These issues have only existed for one game!!! No one can expect an HC with this much experience to know how to play tempo/fast-paced offense!! You’re over-reacting!!”

 

[jsb]

Omfg, once and for all: IT’S NOT ABOUT ONE GAME.

OMFG, I was replying to someone saying people were upset about the UNI game (and that’s why there was little Iowa game hype). Of course, then they shouldn’t be ******** about it.

 

[flycy]

I’ve been around for a few coaches and I’m definitely getting that feeling. McDermott, McCarney, Rhoads, Prohm. Not going to include guys like Morgan, Fred, or Chizik as those were different/very short term situations. Obviously Larry was a unique situation as well.

I’ve had this feeling before and while we’re not totally rotted out (there’s a chance CMC could bounce back a la Kirk Ferentz), I think the “rot” has definitely started to sneak in, if only just a little bit, especially with the gambling issue and it’s direct contradiction to the “5-Star Culture” mantra.

Not a single McCarney Rhoads, etc. team that could have lost around half a dozen starters in the offseason to a gambling scandal and stayed within about 40 of Iowa. You people have extremely short memories if you think current times are anything like those you list before. Think TCU disaster except every game last season. That describes how all those other coaches performed in bad years.

This gambling thing sucks, especially since if evenly investigated, would have an impact on every team out there. Got give a pass to the coaching staff on it. If you blame the "5-star culture" thing, well then, its bad everywhere.

 

[joefrog]

Once again, McCarney and Rhoads never had the facilities, resources, and revenue Campbell enjoys.

And if you lose 6 players due to gambling, why exactly does the coach get a pass?

I mean, apparently he didn't make it crystal clear exactly what repercussions people would face.

 

[madguy30]

Once again, McCarney and Rhoads never had the facilities, resources, and revenue Campbell enjoys.

And if you lose 6 players due to gambling, why exactly does the coach get a pass?

I mean, apparently he didn't make it crystal clear exactly what repercussions people would face.

You should read up a bit more on this process before spewing this kind of nonsense.

 

[flycy]

There are some vague parallels with the middle of the Rhoads era.

Both Rhoads and Campbell came into bad situations but quickly turned things around and had some substantial success by Iowa State standards. Rhoads pulled some memorable upsets and made a bowl game 3/4 years, something no Cyclone coach had ever done before. Campbell obviously exceeded and transcended even that level of success to incredible degrees from 2017 through 2020 in the "miracle era."

Both both programs sort of "stalled" and backslid after that. Both Wally then and Heacock now were putting some salty defenses on the field, but the offense and special teams were never quite good enough to eek out a lead consistently. Eventually Wally's defense broke down and the program crashed as a result into three-, two-, and three-win seasons, and Rhoads was let go to make way for up-and-comer Campbell.

Not to say it is exactly the same or will play out the same way, but it is the same problem --

Excellent if not championship-quality defense, special teams and offense eating paste.

I think you need three bad years in a row before Pollard would even consider making a change. Even the "bad" Campbell season last year mostly consisted of close losses to high-quality Big 12 teams, not constant blowouts as we saw late in the Rhoads era. I think Campbell is going to rebuild things yet.

Rhoads only won with Chiz's players who were actually fairly talented. CMC recruited his own talent. Big difference.

 

[flycy]

I'm certainly not calling for Campbell to be fired, but it is a bit mind boggling to me how the guy just does not seem to learn from his mistakes. I think the Iowa game is the perfect showcase of CMC and his coaching tenure here. We've been doing the same thing against Iowa since his first game against them and yet we still roll out every year against them, doing the same stuff that didn't work the year before.

I do think the O-line has improved some this year, but honestly, it would be tough to be worse than last year. Special Teams seems to be better as well, but we still have moments that make us look like a Jr. High team in our first ever football game. The Dropped snap on the first field goal and the kick-off that was barely and very luckily a touchback shows we have a lot of work to do. It does seem like we are going in the right direction

So, was it the same thing in the 2017 41-44 loss with Jacob Park? You kind of have to go with what you have. The more conservative offense has greatly assisted the defensive rise, that's why it is part of CMC's philosophy. They have also had one of the top offenses in the Big 12 a few years. Iowa game is usually ugly and boring. Give things time.

 

[awd4cy]

So, was it the same thing in the 2017 41-44 loss with Jacob Park? You kind of have to go with what you have. The more conservative offense has greatly assisted the defensive rise, that's why it is part of CMC's philosophy. They have also had one of the top offenses in the Big 12 a few years. Iowa game is usually ugly and boring. Give things time.

What were we doing different in 2017? Would love to go back to that season. Honestly think the 2017 team ended up being Campbells best.

 

[flycy]

There is rot in college football in general. Legalized gambling, NIL, transfer portal, realignment, numerous "media" time outs for commercial.