Interesting Reddit Project: Ranking every CFB program over the last 40 years

[CoKane]

Thought people might like following along with this in the offseason. Someone on reddit created their own formula to determine official rankings of who the best programs over the last 40 years has been. Early in the reveals still, 114 of FAU just dropped today. Seems like he's uploading daily. Each post is super detailed and good stuff to read over.

Link to the main hub:



Makes me wonder where we'll show up and how many P6 teams we'll be ahead of.

 

[mred]

Out of curiosity, I grabbed 40 years of power rankings from https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm and put them into excel, and tried to re-create the methodology of blending those 40 years together based on what the Redditor said. Obviously they won't match perfectly since he used his own ranking system, but I've gotten somewhat similar results for the teams that have been revealed so far.

From my approximation, here's the top 10 and other notable schools:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. FSU
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami (FL)
7. Michigan
8. Georgia
9. Nebraska
10. Notre Dame

17. Texas
23. Iowa
24. BYU
27. WVU
29. Oklahoma State
30. KSU
34. TCU
47. Texas Tech
53. Cincinnati
55. Baylor
59. Houston
67. UCF
79. Iowa State
82. Indiana
86. Rutgers
91. Kansas
97. Duke
103. Vanderbilt

That's 5 P6 schools below ISU.

 

[ghyland7]

Unfortunately, I suspect that ISU will be among the worst P6 schools on the list.

We’ve had relative success in the early 2000s and the last few years, but we pretty awful between earl bruce (late 70s) and Mac’s turnaround.

Even our successful coaches have pretty bad seasons.


That being said, a bunch of the “new” P6 schools have the benefit of poor competition.

 

[JM4CY]

Unfortunately, I suspect that ISU will be among the worst P6 schools on the list.

We’ve had relative success in the early 2000s and the last few years, but we pretty awful between earl bruce (late 70s) and Mac’s turnaround.

Even our successful coaches have pretty bad seasons.


That being said, a bunch of the “new” P6 schools have the benefit of poor competition.

Pretty awful isn’t a strong enough phrase. Epic clustef*ck gets closer.

 

[clonedude]

That's depressing.... but not surprising unfortunately.

 

[ghyland7]

Pretty awful isn’t a strong enough phrase. Epic clustef*ck gets closer.

I'm not going to sit here and defend criner or walden, but Mac and Rhoads had stretches nearly as bad.

Even Matt's first year he went 3-9, and last year was a nightmare.

 

[mj4cy]

But the media tells me every year Texas is #1?!?

 

[madguy30]

I'm not going to sit here and defend criner or walden, but Mac and Rhoads had stretches nearly as bad.

Even Matt's first year he went 3-9, and last year was a nightmare.

I don't know if I'd call it a nightmare. It was a bit of a rebuild after some success and was a handful of plays away from 7 wins.

CPR and Mac's 'rebuild' seasons were complete fall outs.

The 1980s still stands as an underrated decade; would have been 3 bowl teams by today's standards and a game away from a bowl 3 times.

The 90s....well that was just bad no matter how you slice it.

 

[4theCYcle]

But the media tells me every year Texas is #1?!?

Dude, if you don't believe Texas is back yet, you're living in a fantasyland. Ewers.....ARCH MANNING!?!?

Breece Hall - ISU jersey - drafted 36.

2020	12	279	1,572	5.6	21	23	180	7.8	2
2021	12	253	1,472	5.8	20	36	302	8.4	3

Bijan Robinson - Texas drafted 8th

2021	10	195	1,127	5.8	62	11	26	295	4
2022	12	258	1,580	6.1	78	18	19	314	2

Pretty similar numbers. Hall had a lot more TDs. I'll bet if Breece simply wore the burnt orange on the front of his jersey he would have also been top 15 or 10. But, by God he wears ISU and isn't in the 1st round! 2022 DRAFT: BUT DON'T DRAFT 1ST ROUND RBS ITS NOT SMART THEY AREN'T VALUABLE ANYMORE. 2023 COMES.... BIJAN ROBINSON GENERATIONAL TALENT! HES GOING 1ST ROUND! BC TEXAS! and well Gibbs. Such an eyeroll with their narrative changes. Really sucks Breece got hurt last year, he was blowing up real quick and likely would have won ROTY. Hopefully he'll have a good year to where he can be come back player of the year.

 

[CycloneErik]

I like to think we'll get some accidental votes as Ohio State, but maybe lose some ground as Idaho State.

 

[cyclones500]

Out of curiosity, I grabbed 40 years of power rankings from https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm and put them into excel, and tried to re-create the methodology of blending those 40 years together based on what the Redditor said. Obviously they won't match perfectly since he used his own ranking system, but I've gotten somewhat similar results for the teams that have been revealed so far.

From my approximation, here's the top 10 and other notable schools:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. FSU
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami (FL)
7. Michigan
8. Georgia
9. Nebraska
10. Notre Dame

17. Texas
23. Iowa
24. BYU
27. WVU
29. Oklahoma State
30. KSU
34. TCU
47. Texas Tech
53. Cincinnati
55. Baylor
59. Houston
67. UCF
79. Iowa State
82. Indiana
86. Rutgers
91. Kansas
97. Duke
103. Vanderbilt

That's 5 P6 schools below ISU.

Looks about right to me. I'm curious where Kansas State would have ranked in about 1992. The climb since that point has to be immense.

 

[CoKane]

First P5 school to drop

@mred You were very close

 

[mred]

Kansas is at 96 and Duke is at 98, so those are both close as well.

So far with 131 through 95 revealed, the farthest off I've been has been Ohio (13 places): 110 on my list vs 97 on the Reddit list. On average, I've been off by around 4 places. Both of those numbers will likely go up as we approach the middle of the list -- the teams start to bunch up together, so a small difference can mean a larger change in position.


Below is my full list for anyone interested.

1    Alabama
2    Ohio State
3    Florida State
4    Florida
5    Oklahoma
6    Miami (Florida)
7    Michigan
8    Georgia
9    Nebraska
10    Notre Dame
11    Southern California
12    Auburn
13    Penn State
14    Clemson
15    Louisiana State
16    Tennessee
17    Texas
18    Texas A&M
19    Oregon
20    Washington
21    Virginia Tech
22    Wisconsin
23    Iowa
24    Brigham Young
25    UCLA
26    Michigan State
27    West Virginia
28    Boise State
29    Oklahoma State
30    Kansas State
31    Arkansas
32    Utah
33    Stanford
34    Texas Christian
35    Colorado
36    South Carolina
37    Arizona State
38    Georgia Tech
39    Syracuse
40    Louisville
41    Arizona
42    Air Force
43    Mississippi
44    Boston College
45    Virginia
46    North Carolina
47    Texas Tech
48    North Carolina State
49    Mississippi State
50    Pittsburgh
51    Washington State
52    Fresno State
53    Cincinnati
54    Missouri
55    Baylor
56    California
57    Southern Mississippi
58    Maryland
59    Houston
60    Illinois
61    Toledo
62    Minnesota
63    Oregon State
64    Purdue
65    Kentucky
66    Marshall
67    Central Florida
68    San Diego State
69    Northwestern
70    East Carolina
71    Colorado State
72    Appalachian State
73    Wake Forest
74    Hawaii
75    Wyoming
76    Bowling Green
77    Memphis
78    Navy
79    Iowa State
80    Northern Illinois
81    Tulsa
82    Indiana
83    South Florida
84    Miami (Ohio)
85    Louisiana Tech
86    Rutgers
87    Western Michigan
88    Nevada
89    Troy
90    Southern Methodist
91    Kansas
92    Liberty
93    Coastal Carolina
94    Central Michigan
95    Georgia Southern
96    Louisiana
97    Duke
98    San Jose State
99    James Madison
100    Western Kentucky
101    Utah State
102    Army
103    Vanderbilt
104    Texas-San Antonio
105    Ball State
106    Temple
107    Alabama-Birmingham
108    Tulane
109    Middle Tennessee State
110    Ohio
111    New Mexico
112    Florida Atlantic
113    Old Dominion
114    Rice
115    Connecticut
116    Georgia State
117    South Alabama
118    Arkansas State
119    Charlotte
120    Texas-El Paso
121    Texas State
122    Nevada-Las Vegas
123    North Texas
124    Buffalo
125    Eastern Michigan
126    Florida International
127    Akron
128    Louisiana-Monroe
129    Kent State
130    Massachusetts
131    New Mexico State

 

[Farnsworth]

Our name hasnt dropped yet, woo hoo!!

 

[HFCS]

Out of curiosity, I grabbed 40 years of power rankings from https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm and put them into excel, and tried to re-create the methodology of blending those 40 years together based on what the Redditor said. Obviously they won't match perfectly since he used his own ranking system, but I've gotten somewhat similar results for the teams that have been revealed so far.

From my approximation, here's the top 10 and other notable schools:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. FSU
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami (FL)
7. Michigan
8. Georgia
9. Nebraska
10. Notre Dame

17. Texas
23. Iowa
24. BYU
27. WVU
29. Oklahoma State
30. KSU
34. TCU
47. Texas Tech
53. Cincinnati
55. Baylor
59. Houston
67. UCF
79. Iowa State
82. Indiana
86. Rutgers
91. Kansas
97. Duke
103. Vanderbilt

That's 5 P6 schools below ISU.

When you go with 40 years you've still got 10+ years where ISU was close to dead last some years. #79 is right where I'd expect.

A 20 or 25 year span makes ISU look drastically better.

 

[mred]

A 20 or 25 year span makes ISU look drastically better.

A little bit. Here's a 20-year version.

We're up to #68. 2003, 2006-2008, and 2013-2016 are all pretty bad.

EDIT: I also checked a 25-year timeframe, and we were also at #68 surprisingly. 2000-2002 were offset somewhat by 1998-1999.

20-YEAR RANKINGS
1    Alabama
2    Ohio State
3    Georgia
4    Oklahoma
5    Louisiana State
6    Clemson
7    Southern California
8    Florida
9    Boise State
10    Oregon
11    Auburn
12    Texas
13    Michigan
14    Notre Dame
15    Wisconsin
16    Texas Christian
17    Florida State
18    Penn State
19    Oklahoma State
20    Virginia Tech
21    Utah
22    Texas A&M
23    Iowa
24    Michigan State
25    Cincinnati
26    Stanford
27    West Virginia
28    Miami (Florida)
29    Louisville
30    Tennessee
31    Brigham Young
32    South Carolina
33    Missouri
34    Arkansas
35    Nebraska
36    Mississippi
37    Kansas State
38    Washington
39    Texas Tech
40    Mississippi State
41    Baylor
42    Central Florida
43    UCLA
44    Arizona State
45    Pittsburgh
46    Georgia Tech
47    California
48    Boston College
49    Oregon State
50    Houston
51    North Carolina State
52    Minnesota
53    Navy
54    North Carolina
55    Fresno State
56    Northwestern
57    Appalachian State
58    Air Force
59    Wake Forest
60    Kentucky
61    San Diego State
62    Washington State
63    Memphis
64    Tulsa
65    Northern Illinois
66    Arizona
67    Toledo
68    Iowa State
69    Marshall
70    Purdue
71    Maryland
72    South Florida
73    Virginia
74    Troy
75    Louisiana
76    Rutgers
77    Nevada
78    Southern Mississippi
79    Louisiana Tech
80    Utah State
81    Syracuse
82    Western Michigan
83    Hawaii
84    Western Kentucky
85    East Carolina
86    Southern Methodist
87    Ohio
88    Vanderbilt
89    Bowling Green
90    Duke
91    Liberty
92    Coastal Carolina
93    Georgia Southern
94    Arkansas State
95    Central Michigan
96    Colorado
97    Indiana
98    Connecticut
99    Illinois
100    Temple
101    James Madison
102    Alabama-Birmingham
103    Middle Tennessee State
104    Kansas
105    Wyoming
106    Army
107    Ball State
108    Texas-San Antonio
109    Florida Atlantic
110    Miami (Ohio)
111    Colorado State
112    San Jose State
113    Tulane
114    New Mexico
115    North Texas
116    Buffalo
117    Rice
118    Old Dominion
119    Georgia State
120    South Alabama
121    Texas-El Paso
122    Kent State
123    Louisiana-Monroe
124    Eastern Michigan
125    Florida International
126    Akron
127    Charlotte
128    Nevada-Las Vegas
129    Texas State
130    New Mexico State
131    Massachusetts

 

[HFCS]

A little bit. Here's a 20-year version.

We're up to #68. 2003, 2006-2008, and 2013-2016 are all pretty bad.

EDIT: I also checked a 25-year timeframe, and we were also at #68 surprisingly. 2000-2002 were offset somewhat by 1998-1999.

20-YEAR RANKINGS
1    Alabama
2    Ohio State
3    Georgia
4    Oklahoma
5    Louisiana State
6    Clemson
7    Southern California
8    Florida
9    Boise State
10    Oregon
11    Auburn
12    Texas
13    Michigan
14    Notre Dame
15    Wisconsin
16    Texas Christian
17    Florida State
18    Penn State
19    Oklahoma State
20    Virginia Tech
21    Utah
22    Texas A&M
23    Iowa
24    Michigan State
25    Cincinnati
26    Stanford
27    West Virginia
28    Miami (Florida)
29    Louisville
30    Tennessee
31    Brigham Young
32    South Carolina
33    Missouri
34    Arkansas
35    Nebraska
36    Mississippi
37    Kansas State
38    Washington
39    Texas Tech
40    Mississippi State
41    Baylor
42    Central Florida
43    UCLA
44    Arizona State
45    Pittsburgh
46    Georgia Tech
47    California
48    Boston College
49    Oregon State
50    Houston
51    North Carolina State
52    Minnesota
53    Navy
54    North Carolina
55    Fresno State
56    Northwestern
57    Appalachian State
58    Air Force
59    Wake Forest
60    Kentucky
61    San Diego State
62    Washington State
63    Memphis
64    Tulsa
65    Northern Illinois
66    Arizona
67    Toledo
68    Iowa State
69    Marshall
70    Purdue
71    Maryland
72    South Florida
73    Virginia
74    Troy
75    Louisiana
76    Rutgers
77    Nevada
78    Southern Mississippi
79    Louisiana Tech
80    Utah State
81    Syracuse
82    Western Michigan
83    Hawaii
84    Western Kentucky
85    East Carolina
86    Southern Methodist
87    Ohio
88    Vanderbilt
89    Bowling Green
90    Duke
91    Liberty
92    Coastal Carolina
93    Georgia Southern
94    Arkansas State
95    Central Michigan
96    Colorado
97    Indiana
98    Connecticut
99    Illinois
100    Temple
101    James Madison
102    Alabama-Birmingham
103    Middle Tennessee State
104    Kansas
105    Wyoming
106    Army
107    Ball State
108    Texas-San Antonio
109    Florida Atlantic
110    Miami (Ohio)
111    Colorado State
112    San Jose State
113    Tulane
114    New Mexico
115    North Texas
116    Buffalo
117    Rice
118    Old Dominion
119    Georgia State
120    South Alabama
121    Texas-El Paso
122    Kent State
123    Louisiana-Monroe
124    Eastern Michigan
125    Florida International
126    Akron
127    Charlotte
128    Nevada-Las Vegas
129    Texas State
130    New Mexico State
131    Massachusetts

Wild that Iowa is 23 over 20 or 40 years.

 

[mred]

You can really see who the has-beens are vs the up-and-comers by comparing the two lists.

Biggest Decreases:
Colorado -- dropped 61 places from the 40-year list to the 20-year list
Syracuse -- 42
Colorado State -- 40
Wyoming -- 30
Virginia -- 28
Nebraska -- 26
Miami (OH) -- 26
Arizona -- 25
Miami (FL) -- 22
Southern Miss -- 21

Biggest Increases:
Cincinnati -- gained 28 places from the 40-year list to the 20-year list
Central Florida -- 25
Navy -- 25
Arkansas State -- 24
Ohio -- 23
Missouri -- 21
Louisiana -- 21
Utah State -- 21

 

[KennyPratt42]

Roughly speaking the '50s and the '90s were both really bad periods for Iowa St. football if you're looking by decades. Outside of that it hasn't been great, but also not as terrible as some people think. The main distinguishing thing compared to many schools that aren't the blue bloods is there isn't a 'glory years' period. The closest to that in the last 100 years are the Campbell teams from '17-'21 and the Bruce teams from '76-'78.

 

[mred]

Stumbled upon this while looking for something else. I was pretty close -- I estimated ISU at #79, and we're #84. The reveal is up to #37.