ISU Bowl Projection

[StLouisClone]

A 10-2 Ole Miss will likely lose out to a Big 12 team that goes 11-1 and then loses in the Big 12 championship game. The CFP committee updates their rankings every week. Any Big 12 team that goes 11-1 will likely be ranked 2-3 spots ahead of a 10-2 Ole Miss going into Championship weekend. Those teams that don't play on Championship weekend have a hard time moving up. It's the conference winners who do all the moving. The losers don't drop much if at all.

 

[StLouisClone]

Now a 10-2 Georgia is a different story.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

A 10-2 Ole Miss will likely lose out to a Big 12 team that goes 11-1 and then loses in the Big 12 championship game. The CFP committee updates their rankings every week. Any Big 12 team that goes 11-1 will likely be ranked 2-3 spots ahead of a 10-2 Ole Miss going into Championship weekend. Those teams that don't play on Championship weekend have a hard time moving up. It's the conference winners who do all the moving. The losers don't drop much if at all.

10-2 Ole Miss (or any SEC team and 99% of Big Ten teams) makes it 100 times out of 100 regardless of who else is in the pool.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

10-2 Ole Miss (or any SEC team and 99% of Big Ten teams) makes it 100 times out of 100 regardless of who else is in the pool.

Unless they have zero ranked wins somehow and the other groups have multipule

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Unless they have zero ranked wins somehow and the other groups have multipule

We're into unicorn and leprechaun territory there. Especially after the SEC goes to 9 league games plus a Big Ten game or two in 2031.

 

[StLouisClone]

It would help if UCF can beat Florida this weekend. That would give the B12 a 3-1 record vs SEC this year.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

With NIL I feel a lot of these elite teams have separated themselves further. I think the 12 team playoff ends with the same 4 teams we've come accustomed to in the 4 team playoff.

I think there's 6-8 teams that will consistently be there. After that you are just happy you got to participate.

 

[IceCyIce]

WOW I think I'll come back to this thread in about 5 weeks, see if anything is a little more clear.

 

[GoHawks]

I think there's 6-8 teams that will consistently be there. After that you are just happy you got to participate.

I agree and I didn't explain well. I think there will be some varying teams year to year as there's a lot of money that goes into college football. I just think we will be able to look at brackets most year and pencil in the 4. Much like in NBA which I also love you can typically guess the conference finals most years or close to.

 

[rosshm16]

Y'all respectfully are delusional if you think a two-loss Big 12 team who didn't win the Big 12 championship has a decent chance of making this playoff. We'll get our champion auto-in and unless the runner-up was undefeated or there's a bunch of upsets in the Big 10 and SEC, that's it.

The CFP rankings are not some automatic metric-driven thing, there's a human committee that subjectively ranks them and that process is going to heavily favor the Big 10 and SEC. When it says "Strength of Schedule" for example is a factor, it's not some calculation that decides between closely-ranked teams, it's code for "Well the SEC is a meat-grinder so 9-3 LSU is in over [insert two-loss Big 12 team]."

We'll see in December!

 

[DesertClone1]

My reaction to all this nonsense?

 

[rosshm16]

My reaction to all this nonsense?
View attachment 135307

I was thinking while listening to W&B during my commute this morning that in the current system, if you're a major-conference team and you win all your games, you're guaranteed to be the national champion, so it's an improvement over the previous system, at least for the major conference teams.

 

[12191987]

Not likely, but this would be great.

Beat Tennessee and Miami and play for a title?

Projected College Football Playoff bracket: Ohio State, not Alabama, is new No. 1 while Ole Miss drops out

Seismic results in the SEC have shaken up this week's updated College Football Playoff projections.

www.cbssports.com

 

[SolterraCyclone]

10-2 Ole Miss (or any SEC team and 99% of Big Ten teams) makes it 100 times out of 100 regardless of who else is in the pool.

I don’t see a 10-2 Ole Miss team jumping a 1-loss B12/ACC non conference champion (though that’s unlikely at this point) or another 2-loss P2 team, UNLESS they beat UGA and their second loss is to LSU. They’re schedule is not that good.

I’d say we’ll see, but I expect them to lose at least 2 more

 

[Cyclonsin]

I don’t see a 10-2 Ole Miss team jumping a 1-loss B12/ACC non conference champion (though that’s unlikely at this point) or another 2-loss P2 team, UNLESS they beat UGA and their second loss is to LSU. They’re schedule is not that good.

I’d say we’ll see, but I expect them to lose at least 2 more

If they lose to UGA, the pundits will say their wins over LSU & OU are better than any win in the Big XII, with wins over Arkansas and South Carolina being equal (if not better) than Big XII wins. I'm not saying that's the truth, I'm saying that's how it will be presented. They'll absolutely get in over any 2-loss Big XII/ACC team. This isn't even a question, imo. I appreciate your optimism, but this isn't designed to be a fair system.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

If they lose to UGA, the pundits will say their wins over LSU & OU are better than any win in the Big XII, with wins over Arkansas and South Carolina being equal (if not better) than Big XII wins. I'm not saying that's the truth, I'm saying that's how it will be presented. They'll absolutely get in over any 2-loss Big XII/ACC team. This isn't even a question, imo. I appreciate your optimism, but this isn't designed to be a fair system.

Oh I agree they’re in over a 2-loss B12/ACC team. I don’t think they’d be in over a 1-loss B12/ACC team UNLESS they beat UGA.

I think they’re outside looking in if they go up against another 2-loss P2 team (Georgia or Michigan, specifically). They’d have the same fight the B12 does compared to those two in that they aren’t a blue blood

 

[RonBurgundy]

Oh I agree they’re in over a 2-loss B12/ACC team. I don’t think they’d be in over a 1-loss B12/ACC team UNLESS they beat UGA.

I think they’re outside looking in if they go up against another 2-loss P2 team (Georgia or Michigan, specifically). They’d have the same fight the B12 does compared to those two in that they aren’t a blue blood

I think the only way the Big 12 gets two teams is if both are undefeated in the CCG, or it is an undefeated team going up against an 11-1 (or 10-2) team and the underdog team wins the conference. It would take a lot for any two loss Big 12 team to make the CFP unless they are conference champs.

 

[chuckd4735]

College Football odds, predictions: Why Iowa State will go undefeated

According to the KFord Ratings, Iowa State will be favored in each of its next six games.

nypost.com

 

[twojman]

Many of you still don't understand strength of schedule in the eyes of the playoff committee. Doesn't matter how good you think the team is, you get credit for a quality win if you beat a team that is above .500. Guess what, we want Arkansas St to finish 7-5 at worst, same with Iowa. Now say Iowa ends up 9-3, they'll be ranked and ISU gets a quality win AND ranked win with that so it is worth 2 points. This gives you a good boost in the rankings. FCS opponents only count if you lose to them. You are better finding a MAC school that can finish 7-5 to bump up your quality wins.

Why does SEC show a strong strength of schedule to the playoff committee? They play 8 conference games so 50% of the league can avoid an extra loss other conferences have with 9 league games. This can allow teams to end up 7-5 instead of 6-6. Guess what, beating a 7-5 Kentucky is better than beating a 6-6 Michigan in the eyes of the committee.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The issue for the B12 this year is not miz, nd, mich, etc. it is the fact that we only have ISU/BYU left as undefeated teams 5 weeks into the season. We need to have years where we end up with 2 or 3 teams that are either unbeaten or have only 1 (max 2) losses heading into the conf championship games. That means you can't have non-conf losses like:

cinci vs. pitt
wvu vs. pitt/psu
col vs. neb
ksu vs. ariz (terrible game for the b12 since it added a loss to one of the conf contenders automatically)
kan vs. unlv, ill

etc....

This year the B12 will have a very narrow path for possibly getting 2 teams:

ISU / BYU both undefeated in B12 title game
ISU undefeated vs. a 1 loss Col or Ari
ISU / Utah both with 1 loss in B12 title game
ISU unbeaten, Utah 2 losses, Utah wins B12 title, ISU is runner up with 1 loss
KSU / Utah both with 1 loss going into B12 title game

There are porbably some other less likely outcomes... but Utah & UCF losing really made the path very difficult for the B12 to get 2.

To me, this was always the case... I don't think there will be a lot of years where 9+ teams from the p2+ND have 2 or fewer losses... has not happened much in the past, unlikely to happen often going forward.

Key for B12 is to have as many teams as possible with 2 or fewer losses... then you have a shot at 2. This year is not looking good. But this does not mean every year will be terrible. Have to do better in non-conf matchups.

The B12 and ACC will have a narrow path every year to getting 2 teams from the league in, its not just this year. Every team in the B10 or SEC that comes out those leagues in the top 4 is going to make the playoff, if not top 5.

A 9-3 Ol Miss that has 3 losses is going to get into the playoff over a 10-2 ISU team that was in its conference championship game and lost. The bar for the ACC and B12 is to get to 11 wins, and then hope that schools from the B10 and SEC all have at least 3 losses to beat them out for a spot. I loss to a Georgia or Ohio State is not going to hurt those schools nearly as much as a loss to KSU or Utah will a school like ISU.