ISU Bowl Projection

[MeowingCows]

Y'all respectfully are delusional if you think a two-loss Big 12 team who didn't win the Big 12 championship has a decent chance of making this playoff. We'll get our champion auto-in and unless the runner-up was undefeated or there's a bunch of upsets in the Big 10 and SEC, that's it.

The CFP rankings are not some automatic metric-driven thing, there's a human committee that subjectively ranks them and that process is going to heavily favor the Big 10 and SEC. When it says "Strength of Schedule" for example is a factor, it's not some calculation that decides between closely-ranked teams, it's code for "Well the SEC is a meat-grinder so 9-3 LSU is in over [insert two-loss Big 12 team]."

We'll see in December!

Remember: none of these Playoff actions have anything to do with maintaining a competitive postseason or results-based placement based on games played. It exists to provide TV money by putting together moneymaking matchups. Nothing else matters.

For this same reason, expect the P2 to later betray their own members as the pool of big schools reaching into the pot decides that their share needs to be bigger than the bottom of their totem poles.

 

[OrangeCarrot]

The end of Cy-Hawk would be the only good thing to come out of that

That would mean no guaranteed rivalry game on the schedule.

 

[ClubCy]

That would mean no guaranteed rivalry game on the schedule.

Ok and?

 

[2speedy1]

Ok and?

How many games does ISU have that are a guaranteed sell out every year? Same question with Iowa?
How many games have even close to the excitement for either team regularly?
How many games are as important for the state as a whole as the CyHawk?
How many games has ISU gotten Game Day to come? And... what game was were they here for?
ETC ETC.

I get some people want this to go away, because emotions. But this game is huge for both schools and the state. It is a cash cow for both universities and the rivalry is huge for the state as a whole. From everything from the national media, to ticket sales, to Tshirt sales, people are born into this rivalry and grow up in it, if it goes away, that goes away. Does anyone in Iowa grow up hating everything OkSt? Maybe a few, but not like people grow up hating Iowa or ISU, that hate/love is what brings eyes and money.

I hate the squawks, I hate the game, but I also know how important it is.

 

[acoustimac]

Personally…I like this…a lot!

 

[SolarGarlic]

Many of you still don't understand strength of schedule in the eyes of the playoff committee. Doesn't matter how good you think the team is, you get credit for a quality win if you beat a team that is above .500. Guess what, we want Arkansas St to finish 7-5 at worst, same with Iowa. Now say Iowa ends up 9-3, they'll be ranked and ISU gets a quality win AND ranked win with that so it is worth 2 points. This gives you a good boost in the rankings. FCS opponents only count if you lose to them. You are better finding a MAC school that can finish 7-5 to bump up your quality wins.

Why does SEC show a strong strength of schedule to the playoff committee? They play 8 conference games so 50% of the league can avoid an extra loss other conferences have with 9 league games. This can allow teams to end up 7-5 instead of 6-6. Guess what, beating a 7-5 Kentucky is better than beating a 6-6 Michigan in the eyes of the committee.

I think that criteria was referenced one year. I don't think it's an official criteria, but I could be wrong.

 

[rosshm16]

The committee puts whoever they want in then settles on the criteria afterwards to justify it.

 

[cymonw1980]

The B12 and ACC will have a narrow path every year to getting 2 teams from the league in, its not just this year. Every team in the B10 or SEC that comes out those leagues in the top 4 is going to make the playoff, if not top 5.

A 9-3 Ol Miss that has 3 losses is going to get into the playoff over a 10-2 ISU team that was in its conference championship game and lost. The bar for the ACC and B12 is to get to 11 wins, and then hope that schools from the B10 and SEC all have at least 3 losses to beat them out for a spot. I loss to a Georgia or Ohio State is not going to hurt those schools nearly as much as a loss to KSU or Utah will a school like ISU.

I don’t disagree with most of this. But not many years 9 teams in the p2 will have 2 or fewer losses.

If you are in the B12/ACC you have to have 1 or 0 losses going into the title game. If you do, good shot at an at large if you lose. But you have to win non conf games. Colorado beats nebbie they are in the running for an at large. They lost. It’s going to be hard for them now.

Harder path for B12 now… but there is a path. If you don’t beat nebbie, Ill, psu, pitt, in non conf games…. Then that’s on us. Now we are down to 2 teams that are undefeated and it’s week 5. Can’t have that.

 

[twojman]

I think that criteria was referenced one year. I don't think it's an official criteria, but I could be wrong.

It's the official criteria and always has been.

 

[agrabes]

The B12 and ACC will have a narrow path every year to getting 2 teams from the league in, its not just this year. Every team in the B10 or SEC that comes out those leagues in the top 4 is going to make the playoff, if not top 5.

A 9-3 Ol Miss that has 3 losses is going to get into the playoff over a 10-2 ISU team that was in its conference championship game and lost. The bar for the ACC and B12 is to get to 11 wins, and then hope that schools from the B10 and SEC all have at least 3 losses to beat them out for a spot. I loss to a Georgia or Ohio State is not going to hurt those schools nearly as much as a loss to KSU or Utah will a school like ISU.

I'm not sure that I actually believe this. I agree that the committee is going to favor the B1G and SEC, but I think that's their secondary concern - they are going to favor brands and TV eyeballs. It may take time, but I think they're going to find that viewers don't care about a rematch with the 4th/5th place team from the B1G or SEC and viewership will fall relative to seeing an extra team from the B12 or ACC. The ESPN talking heads can talk all they want and try to spin it, but at a certain point people will not tune in.

So we have 6 at large spots each year, 7 if ND isn't good. Let's just look at the SEC and think about their historical performance - you've got 5 teams that have won or been in the championship in the last 20 years in Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Florida and Auburn. Auburn is not a perennial challenger, so you throw them out. Add Texas who will be up there if they can continue to compete at the level they are now. On the fringe maybe you have a team like A&M who has some championships in the distant past. Those are the brands who will get eyeballs. The SEC has averaged 3.6 teams with 10+ wins in each of the past 5 years (not counting 2020). So I don't think you're getting a 9-3 SEC team in the playoffs - but you probably are getting 4 SEC bids. The 9-3 2023 LSU Tigers (IMO) probably don't make it over the 2023 10-2 OU or 10-3 OSU because more people are going to care about the 2nd/3rd place B12 team than the 5th place SEC team. The committee might not see it right away, but they will over time when they see poor numbers for weird SEC rematches featuring teams that were never really title contenders vs more interesting matchups.

If you look at the B1G over the same period, they've averaged 3.4 teams with 10+ wins. But who are the brands? Really you have only OSU and Michigan in the last 20 years, though you can add Oregon and Washington now as teams who have been in the playoffs. Personally, I don't see the B1G brands below OSU, UM, and Oregon as strong enough to carry an unjustified playoff berth. If Nebraska has 10 wins I think they also get special treatment, I don't see it for a 9 win Nebraska team. I think the B1G gets 3 most years. National level support and interest just is not there beyond those top 3 brands. Sure, if someone like MSU, Penn State or Nebraska jumps up and makes it into the top 2-3 teams they'll get in.

Anyway - TL;DR: I think 10-2 or 10-3 SEC/B1G teams get in over non-champion 11-1 or 11-2 B12/ACC teams. I don't think the 9-3 teams will jump the conference runner up if they have 11 wins. Just based on performance over the past 5 years, in most years one or the other of the SEC and B1G will have only 3 teams with 10+ wins, leaving one for the best non-champion ACC/B12 team if they have at least 11 wins. Depending on relative brand value of the teams under consideration, a 10-2/10-3 B12/ACC team may be able to get in over at 10-2/10-3 SEC or B1G team. For example - 10-3 conference runner up FSU, Clemson, Utah, maybe even ISU/KSU/OSU would have a good chance at getting in over 10-2 Illinois or Rutgers, but probably not over Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M etc.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I'm not sure that I actually believe this. I agree that the committee is going to favor the B1G and SEC, but I think that's their secondary concern - they are going to favor brands and TV eyeballs. It may take time, but I think they're going to find that viewers don't care about a rematch with the 4th/5th place team from the B1G or SEC and viewership will fall relative to seeing an extra team from the B12 or ACC. The ESPN talking heads can talk all they want and try to spin it, but at a certain point people will not tune in.

So we have 6 at large spots each year, 7 if ND isn't good. Let's just look at the SEC and think about their historical performance - you've got 5 teams that have won or been in the championship in the last 20 years in Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Florida and Auburn. Auburn is not a perennial challenger, so you throw them out. Add Texas who will be up there if they can continue to compete at the level they are now. On the fringe maybe you have a team like A&M who has some championships in the distant past. Those are the brands who will get eyeballs. The SEC has averaged 3.6 teams with 10+ wins in each of the past 5 years (not counting 2020). So I don't think you're getting a 9-3 SEC team in the playoffs - but you probably are getting 4 SEC bids. The 9-3 2023 LSU Tigers (IMO) probably don't make it over the 2023 10-2 OU or 10-3 OSU because more people are going to care about the 2nd/3rd place B12 team than the 5th place SEC team. The committee might not see it right away, but they will over time when they see poor numbers for weird SEC rematches featuring teams that were never really title contenders vs more interesting matchups.

If you look at the B1G over the same period, they've averaged 3.4 teams with 10+ wins. But who are the brands? Really you have only OSU and Michigan in the last 20 years, though you can add Oregon and Washington now as teams who have been in the playoffs. Personally, I don't see the B1G brands below OSU, UM, and Oregon as strong enough to carry an unjustified playoff berth. If Nebraska has 10 wins I think they also get special treatment, I don't see it for a 9 win Nebraska team. I think the B1G gets 3 most years. National level support and interest just is not there beyond those top 3 brands. Sure, if someone like MSU, Penn State or Nebraska jumps up and makes it into the top 2-3 teams they'll get in.

Anyway - TL;DR: I think 10-2 or 10-3 SEC/B1G teams get in over non-champion 11-1 or 11-2 B12/ACC teams. I don't think the 9-3 teams will jump the conference runner up if they have 11 wins. Just based on performance over the past 5 years, in most years one or the other of the SEC and B1G will have only 3 teams with 10+ wins, leaving one for the best non-champion ACC/B12 team if they have at least 11 wins. Depending on relative brand value of the teams under consideration, a 10-2/10-3 B12/ACC team may be able to get in over at 10-2/10-3 SEC or B1G team. For example - 10-3 conference runner up FSU, Clemson, Utah, maybe even ISU/KSU/OSU would have a good chance at getting in over 10-2 Illinois or Rutgers, but probably not over Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M etc.

As much as I would love to agree with you, the B10 and SEC are going to 8 to 9 teams into the playoff, that is what the agreement is. So at 8 teams that means that the ACC and B12 are going to get 3 teams into the playoff, if they get 9 teams then it means that the B12 and ACC get 1 team each.
So unless we have a couple of teams that win 11 wins, we have no chance to get 2 teams in the playoff.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

I'm not sure that I actually believe this. I agree that the committee is going to favor the B1G and SEC, but I think that's their secondary concern - they are going to favor brands and TV eyeballs. It may take time, but I think they're going to find that viewers don't care about a rematch with the 4th/5th place team from the B1G or SEC and viewership will fall relative to seeing an extra team from the B12 or ACC. The ESPN talking heads can talk all they want and try to spin it, but at a certain point people will not tune in.

So we have 6 at large spots each year, 7 if ND isn't good. Let's just look at the SEC and think about their historical performance - you've got 5 teams that have won or been in the championship in the last 20 years in Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Florida and Auburn. Auburn is not a perennial challenger, so you throw them out. Add Texas who will be up there if they can continue to compete at the level they are now. On the fringe maybe you have a team like A&M who has some championships in the distant past. Those are the brands who will get eyeballs. The SEC has averaged 3.6 teams with 10+ wins in each of the past 5 years (not counting 2020). So I don't think you're getting a 9-3 SEC team in the playoffs - but you probably are getting 4 SEC bids. The 9-3 2023 LSU Tigers (IMO) probably don't make it over the 2023 10-2 OU or 10-3 OSU because more people are going to care about the 2nd/3rd place B12 team than the 5th place SEC team. The committee might not see it right away, but they will over time when they see poor numbers for weird SEC rematches featuring teams that were never really title contenders vs more interesting matchups.

If you look at the B1G over the same period, they've averaged 3.4 teams with 10+ wins. But who are the brands? Really you have only OSU and Michigan in the last 20 years, though you can add Oregon and Washington now as teams who have been in the playoffs. Personally, I don't see the B1G brands below OSU, UM, and Oregon as strong enough to carry an unjustified playoff berth. If Nebraska has 10 wins I think they also get special treatment, I don't see it for a 9 win Nebraska team. I think the B1G gets 3 most years. National level support and interest just is not there beyond those top 3 brands. Sure, if someone like MSU, Penn State or Nebraska jumps up and makes it into the top 2-3 teams they'll get in.

Anyway - TL;DR: I think 10-2 or 10-3 SEC/B1G teams get in over non-champion 11-1 or 11-2 B12/ACC teams. I don't think the 9-3 teams will jump the conference runner up if they have 11 wins. Just based on performance over the past 5 years, in most years one or the other of the SEC and B1G will have only 3 teams with 10+ wins, leaving one for the best non-champion ACC/B12 team if they have at least 11 wins. Depending on relative brand value of the teams under consideration, a 10-2/10-3 B12/ACC team may be able to get in over at 10-2/10-3 SEC or B1G team. For example - 10-3 conference runner up FSU, Clemson, Utah, maybe even ISU/KSU/OSU would have a good chance at getting in over 10-2 Illinois or Rutgers, but probably not over Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M etc.

I agree with the general gist of your post, although I don’t think it will be ever be that a B12/ACC 2-loss team is taken over a 2-loss P2 team, even if those teams are 4th or 5th in their conference.

But the committee is going to favor brands in addition to conference, which is why I think a 10-2 Ole Miss team is in trouble if they don't beat UGa.

There is historical precedent for not necessarily favoring the dregs of the B10/SEC over us. In 2020, the Fiesta Bowl had to choose between us and Indiana. And they chose us, probably pretty easily.

 

[cymonw1980]

I honestly think we are getting to wrapped up in what might happen if a 10-3 KSU is compared to 9-3 LSU for the last at large spot…

Will the committee likely take the 4th or 5th sec team over the B12 runner up in that scenario? Yes. Very likely.

How do you over come that should be the question.

1) schedule and win games against P2
2) only 1 loss prior to conf champ game

Do that and you have a good shot at an at large bid. Anything else you are at risk. Yes, there are still weak schedules in the p2 (see iowa, mizz, nd, etc). But they will get the benefit of the doubt. That does not mean we don’t have a better path than ever to get in.

Win the conference. If not, it will be tough, but it’s possible to get in if you have 2 or fewer losses.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I agree with the general gist of your post, although I don’t think it will be ever be that a B12/ACC 2-loss team is taken over a 2-loss P2 team, even if those teams are 4th or 5th in their conference.

But the committee is going to favor brands in addition to conference, which is why I think a 10-2 Ole Miss team is in trouble if they don't beat UGa.

There is historical precedent for not necessarily favoring the dregs of the B10/SEC over us. In 2020, the Fiesta Bowl had to choose between us and Indiana. And they chose us, probably pretty easily.

A 10-2 Ole Miss team would have wins over Oklahoma and LSU, they are going to get into the playoff over a non champion from the B12 unless that team is 11-1. So we beat Utah out there, and then lose to the same Utah team in the championship game. We would have wins over Iowa, Utah and KSU, while Ole Miss would have wins over Ok, LSU, S. Carolina and Florida, with their losses being to Georgia and Kentucky. The committee is putting Ole Miss into the playoff over ISU because they planned a more difficult schedule.

 

[twojman]

A 10-2 Ole Miss team would have wins over Oklahoma and LSU, they are going to get into the playoff over a non champion from the B12 unless that team is 11-1. So we beat Utah out there, and then lose to the same Utah team in the championship game. We would have wins over Iowa, Utah and KSU, while Ole Miss would have wins over Ok, LSU, S. Carolina and Florida, with their losses being to Georgia and Kentucky. The committee is putting Ole Miss into the playoff over ISU because they planned a more difficult schedule.

In your scenario are SCar and FL over .500? If not, ISU has better quality wins. Beating a 7-5 Ark St will be looked at in higher regard then beating a 4-8 FL team. Ark St would be considered a quality win since they would be over .500 FL would not. That's how the committee does it.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

People keep talking about a 2 loss Ole Miss but that would be a middle of the pack in terms of strength for a 2 loss P2 team in my opinion. A 2 loss Rutgers, Indiana, or Mizzou would have a considerably weaker resume and be a much closer decision to the B12/ACC.

There's a lot of football left to be played. I'm sure the SEC/Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt more often than not. But to argue that it will always be 9 SEC and Big 10 playoff teams to shut out a 10-3 B12/ACC team just doesn't seem true to me. It's going to depend on how the schedules line up and the number of upsets.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

In your scenario are SCar and FL over .500? If not, ISU has better quality wins. Beating a 7-5 Ark St will be looked at in higher regard then beating a 4-8 FL team. Ark St would be considered a quality win since they would be over .500 FL would not. That's how the committee does it.

How is wins over Utah, KSU and Iowa better than wins over Oklahoma and LSU? Ole Miss would only have a loss to Georgia and a loss to Kentucky which gave Georgia fits the week before. Not going to pile up milage points from beating KU, Houston, Baylor and WV.

 

[SolarGarlic]

It's the official criteria and always has been.

You got a source for that? I pay very close attention to the committee rankings. I remember them discussing it one year, but if it was official criteria, I feel like it would be a way bigger talking point.

Nothing about it here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

 

[SolterraCyclone]

A 10-2 Ole Miss team would have wins over Oklahoma and LSU, they are going to get into the playoff over a non champion from the B12 unless that team is 11-1. So we beat Utah out there, and then lose to the same Utah team in the championship game. We would have wins over Iowa, Utah and KSU, while Ole Miss would have wins over Ok, LSU, S. Carolina and Florida, with their losses being to Georgia and Kentucky. The committee is putting Ole Miss into the playoff over ISU because they planned a more difficult schedule.

I agree a 2-loss B12 team isn’t bumping Ole Miss. I’m saying Ole Miss would get bumped by a 1-loss ACC/B12 team (although it’s unlikely now the B12 will have a 1-loss non-champion) OR a 2 or even a brand-name 3-loss P2 team. If it’s between 2 loss Michigan and 2 loss Ole Miss. Michigan gets the nod.

 

[DurangoCy]

Personally…I like this…a lot!

1. 5 SEC and 4 Big10 - puke
2. Sign me up for a 2nd round game with Texas. 5 star culture.