ISU PFF Offensive Line Grade Analysis

[cymonw1980]

I understand PFF grades can be controversial... however, I do think outside of getting the grades directly from the coaching staff (which will never happen) it's about the best analysis you can get for a player's down to down performance. There are also very limited stats for offensive linemen so it is tricky to evaluate without some kind of grading system.

I took a look at our PFF grades for our offense overall and did a deeper dive on the Offensive Line since I believe this group is critical to our performance going forward and was a significant (negative) outlier in our grading since Campbell's first season (2016).


Offensive PFF Grades by Position*

Offensive Line: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell -11.7
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 66.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 74.8
2016-2021 (Campbell): 63.1
2019-2021: 63.1

Wide Receivers: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +5.1
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 65.5
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 60.6
2016-2021 (Campbell): 67.9
2019-2021: 65.7

Tight End: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +14.3
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 67.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 61.3
2016-2021 (Campbell): 68.3
2019-2021: 75.5

Running Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +12.5
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 73.1
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 64.1
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.2
2019-2021: 76.6


Quarter Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +11.2
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 74.0
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 67.5
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.3
2019-2021: 78.7

Overall, strong gains across almost all positions on offense, except offensive line where we took a pretty significant step back since 2015.

Offensive Line Grading Analysis:
First, I took a look at our progression the last 8 years. A couple things jumped out.

1) Our best year was 2015 when we ranked #20 nationally in average overall grades on the offensive line (78.2 avg grade).

2) Since 2015, we have only had a player grade out over 70 three times (Brian Bobek 2016, Patrick Scoggins 2016, and Trevor Downing 2021). In both 2014 and 2015 our average OL grade was over 70. In 2015 five offensive linemen graded out over 70, and in 2014 four grade out over 70.

3) Finally, none of the Offensive Linemen brought in from the 2016 class forward, have graded out above the 2014-2015 average grade of 74.8 (best grade was Trevor Downing 72.9 in 2021). The best offensive line grade since 2015 was Patrick Scoggins in 2016 but he was a JUCO in the class of 2015).



Next, I took our Offensive Line grades by season and compared them to Kansas State, Iowa, and the P5 Average Grades:


Every year since 2015 (when we ranked #20 overall) we have graded out below the P5 average on the offensive line. KSU has the highest 8 year average grade in the B12 (#10 overall, OU is #11). Iowa has the highest 8 year average offensive line grade and is consistently in the top 10 year to year. Outside of 2020, KSU has consistently been in the top 10-20.


My Take Away:

1) Offensive Line Must Improve
2) We have had some of the greatest success in program history with limitations on OL
3) I have faith that Campbell will get this turned around; when that happens we win 10+


*NOTE: PFF NCAA grades only go back to 2014. So the data sets cover 2014-2021. The average grades are based on (snap count * grade for each player)/(total snaps) = Avg Grade Per Snap. I removed players with fewer than 100 snaps on the offensive line or fewer than 4 games with playing time; for skill positions I eliminated players with fewer than 50 snaps and fewer than 4 games on offense to focus on players with significant contributions each year.

 

[clonedude]

This doesn't surprise me one bit. Our OL's under CMC have been pretty bad. We need to recruit better there... and more importantly hire a better OL coach. We haven't had a good OL coach since CMC's been here either.

We had some pretty decent OL's under Rhoads some years.... and some really good ones under McCarney.

We've had more overall team success under CMC though due to how much better we've been in some of the other position groups..... especially on the defensive side.

 

[ISUCubswin]

My half-baked theory is Brock Purdy is a big reason for that. Though he didn’t play often, our line looked just fine when Dekkers was in.

Saw a breakdown a few years ago how QBs can make or break lines. Purdy was a GREAT QB, but he almost always was moving around in the pocket as soon as he got the ball, which can end all assignments and essentially puts a line in scramble mode.

Go watch film of Dekkers and he’s completely still in the pocket until he’s under pressure.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The Oline's under CMC have been bad to horrible, not one player from the Oline has been drafted during his time here. UNI has had a couple guys drafted in the past two years. EIU's line has been up and down, but they always have had one stud lineman the past few years that has been drafted in the first round.

Not sure if its coaching, lack of development or what, but for this team to see continued success, we have to start to develop better O lineman, it's really that simple.

 

[cymonw1980]

This doesn't surprise me one bit. Our OL's under CMC have been pretty bad. We need to recruit better there... and more importantly hire a better OL coach. We haven't had a good OL coach since CMC's been here either.

We had some pretty decent OL's under Rhoads some years.... and some really good ones under McCarney.

We've had more overall team success under CMC though due to how much better we've been in some of the other position groups..... especially on the defensive side.

Agree... I have felt like OL was a big issue for a while now. I will be honest though, I was a little surprised how much it jumped out in the grading. Every other position group took a jump up (all but WR double digit improvements) and OL was a double digit step back. I will point out (if you look at the chart) overall OL grading declined across the P5 from 2016-2021. So that does explain some of it. However, we had a top 20 (graded) OL in 2015. We have been below average every year since (2016-2021). So, still a pretty big set back regardless of average grade or compares to other P5 teams.

 

[BCClone]

Agree... I have felt like OL was a big issue for a while now. I will be honest though, I was a little surprised how much it jumped out in the grading. Every other position group took a jump up (all but WR double digit improvements) and OL was a double digit step back. I will point out (if you look at the chart) overall OL grading declined across the P5 from 2016-2021. So that does explain some of it. However, we had a top 20 (graded) OL in 2015. We have been below average every year since (2016-2021). So, still a pretty big set back regardless of average grade or compares to other P5 teams.

Lines generally grade better when they are a predominantly run team, or less spread style. Harder to block when things are wide open. Most lineman aren’t good at both run and pass blocking, generally better at one or the other.

 

[clonedude]

Lines generally grade better when they are a predominantly run team, or less spread style. Harder to block when things are wide open. Most lineman aren’t good at both run and pass blocking, generally better at one or the other.

We've been trying to be a predominantly running team since CMC has gotten here. That's what he wants to do. CMC basically wants ISU to be the Iowa of the Big 12. But he's never had the OL to do it.

And that's why he's never beaten Iowa too. Stubbornly tries to beat Iowa every year at their own game.... but doesn't have the OL talent or coaching to do it. We need to spread it out and go tempo against Iowa... but we never will. We'll finally beat Iowa when our OL has a better game than theirs does.

 

[cymonw1980]

Side by side 2015 vs. 2021 (MIN: 100 snaps, 4 games):



Class = Recruiting Class

 

[Cyforce]

I understand PFF grades can be controversial... however, I do think outside of getting the grades directly from the coaching staff (which will never happen) it's about the best analysis you can get for a player's down to down performance. There are also very limited stats for offensive linemen so it is tricky to evaluate without some kind of grading system.

I took a look at our PFF grades for our offense overall and did a deeper dive on the Offensive Line since I believe this group is critical to our performance going forward and was a significant (negative) outlier in our grading since Campbell's first season (2016).


Offensive PFF Grades by Position*

Offensive Line: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell -11.7
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 66.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 74.8
2016-2021 (Campbell): 63.1
2019-2021: 63.1

Wide Receivers: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +5.1
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 65.5
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 60.6
2016-2021 (Campbell): 67.9
2019-2021: 65.7

Tight End: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +14.3
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 67.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 61.3
2016-2021 (Campbell): 68.3
2019-2021: 75.5

Running Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +12.5
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 73.1
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 64.1
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.2
2019-2021: 76.6


Quarter Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +11.2
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 74.0
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 67.5
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.3
2019-2021: 78.7

Overall, strong gains across almost all positions on offense, except offensive line where we took a pretty significant step back since 2015.

Offensive Line Grading Analysis:
First, I took a look at our progression the last 8 years. A couple things jumped out.

1) Our best year was 2015 when we ranked #20 nationally in average overall grades on the offensive line (78.2 avg grade).

2) Since 2015, we have only had a player grade out over 70 three times (Brian Bobek 2016, Patrick Scoggins 2016, and Trevor Downing 2021). In both 2014 and 2015 our average OL grade was over 70. In 2015 five offensive linemen graded out over 70, and in 2014 four grade out over 70.

3) Finally, none of the Offensive Linemen brought in from the 2016 class forward, have graded out above the 2014-2015 average grade of 74.8 (best grade was Trevor Downing 72.9 in 2021). The best offensive line grade since 2015 was Patrick Scoggins in 2016 but he was a JUCO in the class of 2015).

View attachment 101256

Next, I took our Offensive Line grades by season and compared them to Kansas State, Iowa, and the P5 Average Grades:

View attachment 101253
Every year since 2015 (when we ranked #20 overall) we have graded out below the P5 average on the offensive line. KSU has the highest 8 year average grade in the B12 (#10 overall, OU is #11). Iowa has the highest 8 year average offensive line grade and is consistently in the top 10 year to year. Outside of 2020, KSU has consistently been in the top 10-20.


My Take Away:

1) Offensive Line Must Improve
2) We have had some of the greatest success in program history with limitations on OL
3) I have faith that Campbell will get this turned around; when that happens we win 10+


*NOTE: PFF NCAA grades only go back to 2014. So the data sets cover 2014-2021. The average grades are based on (snap count * grade for each player)/(total snaps) = Avg Grade Per Snap. I removed players with fewer than 100 snaps on the offensive line or fewer than 4 games with playing time; for skill positions I eliminated players with fewer than 50 snaps and fewer than 4 games on offense to focus on players with significant contributions each year.

I can't believe you thought you needed that much data to prove a point that every Clone fan that even casually follows this team knows.

 

[BryceC]

I can't believe you thought you needed that much data to prove a point that every Clone fan that even casually follows this team knows.

We all know it, what we didn't know what how bad it actually was. This is a great look at things and he should be commended not dragged. Man you suck on this website.

 

[cymonw1980]

I can't believe you thought you needed that much data to prove a point that every Clone fan that even casually follows this team knows.

I felt like OL was a big issue... but you hear people try to make excuses for them at times. I wanted to see what the numbers said - best numbers I could get at least.

I thought it was interesting how it jumps off the page... It's not just a perception. It's reality.

 

[cymac2408]

We've been trying to be a predominantly running team since CMC has gotten here. That's what he wants to do. CMC basically wants ISU to be the Iowa of the Big 12. But he's never had the OL to do it.

And that's why he's never beaten Iowa too. Stubbornly tries to beat Iowa every year at their own game.... but doesn't have the OL talent or coaching to do it. We need to spread it out and go tempo against Iowa... but we never will. We'll finally beat Iowa when our OL has a better game than theirs does.

I believe we really need to go to a 4 man front on the defensive line. Force Iowa to be one dimensional and to beat you through the air. Occasionally sending an extra man from varying positions.

 

[cayin]

that is kind of discouraging. Our program under CMC has been amazing. Lots of huge wins and we never get blown out. If we lose, it's normally a competitive game. Love what he is doing here. With that said, the Line play is a huge disappointment. We have had amazing tailbacks like Montgomery and Hall to do a lot on their own. The line needs to anti up this year, we will not have that ability in the backfield this year.

 

[BCClone]

I believe we really need to go to a 4 man front on the defensive line. Force Iowa to be one dimensional and to beat you through the air. Occasionally sending an extra man from varying positions.

Just have okay special teams and not turn the ball over and we win. They haven’t really moved the ball on us, we just screw up.

 

[cymac2408]

Just have okay special teams and not turn the ball over and we win. They haven’t really moved the ball on us, we just screw up.

Good point. Isn’t it refreshing that two people can have open dialogue, different view points and one can sway the other with a great point.

 

[CascadeClone]

Side by side 2015 vs. 2021 (MIN: 100 snaps, 4 games):

View attachment 101257 View attachment 101259

Class = Recruiting Class

Arent there a couple guards forced to playing tackle in that from last year?

This doesnt shock me in the least. Many of us have said for years it is all about the o-line. If it isnt better this year i think you almost HAVE to change the entire OL program. Whether thats a coach or a philosophy or whatever.

 

[cymonw1980]

Arent there a couple guards forced to playing tackle in that from last year?

This doesnt shock me in the least. Many of us have said for years it is all about the o-line. If it isnt better this year i think you almost HAVE to change the entire OL program. Whether thats a coach or a philosophy or whatever.

Maybe… but 2021 was one of the best years we have had since 2015 grade wise. It’s been a consistent issue. We have had 3 total grades over 70 since 2015. In 2015 we had 3 in the 80s, 2 in the 70s, and our worst grade was close to the average from 2016-2021… drop off is significant.

 

[ISUcyclones11]

Dumb question but is there an average OL grade for B12/P5 listed?

 

[cyfan92]

If it's not better this year. CMC has to make a coaching change.

Playing 5 guards last year didn't help the situation. I also agree that a QB like purdy is really hard to block for. He wasn't great from the pocket and had a very limited arm.

Go watch the corners in the OU game when Dekkers came in versus when Purdy is playing. When Brock is the QB, they are pressed on our WR's and don't seem to be nervous about the deep ball. Then when Dekkers subbed in, the corners sag off and seems to respect the deep ball. I'm not savy enough to pick up on tells from the d-line but I would assume Dekkers has to be rushed a lot differently than Purdy

 

[Gunnerclone]

Gotta stop the shuffling. Don’t blow up the whole line when someone gets injured because it’s the “5 best lineman”. Put the #2 in if the #1 gets hurt and try to build something.