QB: Push. Different systems, different styles of play. Nobody will ever expect Stanzi to do any serious rushing. Both make stupid mistakes at times, but both are the recognized leaders of their teams. However, I'm not sure about the Cyclones second string QB. How good is he? Vandenberg has gained valuable game experience, and should be able to take over if Stanzi were to go down.
RB: ISU. Alexander Robinson is statistically better (to whatever extent) than Adam Robinson. However, Iowa has the 1-2 punch of Hampton and Robinson. But until we play, we won't know how good or bad Hampton will end up being. If he is as good as he was his freshman year, then as a position, Iowa might jump ahead.
WR: Iowa. Let's face it...WRs are kind of a split in general, as QBs need good WRs to get open and help make plays, but WRs also need good QBs to make good throws. You already have your hands full with DJK and McNutt, but then you have Sandeman and Davis. After that you have Chaney Jr and Nordmann. A lot of potential targets, if Stanzi can stay upright.
OL: ISU. Just my opinion, but I think game experience is perhaps the most powerful weapon a player has. ISU's OL was able to push around Iowa's vaunted DL last season in what Clayborn and Company (and Norm) agreed was their worst performance of the year. Iowa's OL played well against EIU, but even against an FCS DL, they were still inconsistent. Granted, we were missing a couple players, but still. This will be their first real test of the year.
Also, while everyone makes mistakes, fumbling the center-QB exchange on the goal line cost Iowa 4-5 points (the backwards pass out of the endzone got us 2 points). You just can't make those kinds of mistakes when you're an already low scoring offense.
TE: Push. I don't know enough about Franklin vs Reisner to make the call between the two #1 TEs, but I do like Iowa's depth at the position. Herman played well on Saturday and is a definite plus to have out there. Highly touted recruit CJ Fiedorowowyournamesilongandhardtospellwicz is also available.
DL: Iowa. Last year, the DL struggled against ISU's OL...and they knew it. However, when comparing DLs to each other, Iowa gets the nod. Even if you take Clayborn out of the equation, the rest of the line is still very good. As for depth, I do know Daniels played well with Binns out.
LB: Iowa, but not a huge advantage. Iowa is replacing two very good LBs from last year in Angerer and Edds. As much as they were good in run support, their ability to take away passing lanes in the short, middle of the field were also important. Nielsen and Tarpinian are good, but again, I think experience counts for a lot here. Hunter brings game experience, and Nielsen and Tarp aren't freshman. They have years of practice and games to learn the system. But that's wholly different from being out there every defensive play.
DB: Push. As a group, I think Iowa's secondary was pretty good last year. Sash and Greenwood had great years at safety, but I'm not sure about our depth at the position. At CB, there is a bit more concern, as we lose a very good back in Spievey. Prater was good on the other side, but injuries could mean that we have two relative newcomers at the position. Micah Hyde did alright against EIU, but did get burned twice on the Panthers lone scoring drive. Bernstine and Castillo also may not fare against good receivers/good QBs.
K: Push. Mahoney, Murray and Mossbrucker have more in common than having a last names starting with the letter 'M'. All three can be frustratingly inconsistent at times. Mossbrucker may statistically be the better kicker of the three, but he also tried 10 fewer kicks in 2008 thank Mahoney did. Murray is injured, but there was concern earlier this offseason that in order to perhaps gain power and distance, Murray had taken to kicking more line drive kicks.
Finally, Iowa seems to have fixed it's short kick-off problems with walk-on (or at least I'm pretty sure he's a walk-on) Michael Meyer (really? Another M?). Not giving up field position up to the 30-40 is usually a good thing.
P: Iowa. Donahue is a very good punter, though he has had the occasional bad punt. But as for right now, what boosts him over ISUs 4 punters (well, Kuehl got the most recent start, but still), is experience. Kuehl had a terrible punt, but it was just one punt. He could be a god-send. But until we see more, Donahue gets the prize.
KOC/PC: Push. Because kickoffs and punts are only as useful as the coverage you deploy. Unless you're hoping to get touchbacks each time, allowing the return team to bring it back for good field position or even a TD defeats the whole purpose.
Both teams were pretty good on punt return coverage. If I'm correct in reading these stats, then Iowa State gave up ~2 yards per return and zero TDs, while Iowa allowed about 6 yards per return and zero TDs.
Both teams were even better on kickoff return coverage (both in the top 10 in the country with regard to average yards given up). ISU gave up 18.11 yards per return, while Iowa gave up 18.36 yards per return.
KOR/PR: Push. Again, neither team is extraordinary in the return game.
In punt returns, Iowa gained slightly more yards per game, on average, than ISU. They also had the blocked punt against PSU, and have a blocked punt this year against EIU. As far as I know, ISU did not have any TDs on PRs, or any blocks.
In kickoff returns, Iowa again outgains ISU on average return yards per game by only about a yard (~23 to ~22). Iowa did, however, have a key return for a TD against OSU.
Intangibles: Iowa, but might not actually mean anything, considering this series. The game is being played at Kinnick, where the Cyclones haven't won since 2002. Iowa's coaching staff as been with the team for a longer period of time and have their team and system set. With regard to depth, Iowa might have the slightest of advantages, with guys like Vandenberg ready with game experience. Stanzi makes his mistakes but also has that 4th quarter magic (whether it holds up is still up in the air).
Iowa State also has a few things going for them. First, they're not, by any definition of the word, a bad team. And even if they were, Iowa has a tendency to let 'bad teams' stay in games or even beat them.
Second, there's the underdog factor, especially after Clayborn's comment about Iowa being the only team in state.
Third is the schedule. It's an early game, and Iowa may not have found and worked out all the kinks after the EIU beatdown. Several players will also be facing baptism by fire...especially on the OL. Also, Iowa State gained a few extra days to recover and prepare for the Iowa game, thanks to the Thursday opener.
Finally, there's the fact that this is the goddamn Iowa-Iowa State game. ANYTHING can, and probably will happen.
2005: "Iowa State can't possibly beat Tate and the Ha- oh..."
2006: ISU was ahead through the mid-3rd, but then Iowa decided to put up 17 unanswered
2007: "NO WAY ISU can win this game by just kicking field goals..."
2008: Wasn't a pretty game for either team.
2009: Iowa wins at JT for the first time in a while, and has probably their best win margin all year.
2010: ????!
EDIT:
Stats pulled from
cfbstats.com - 2009 National
