Nevada and ISU Opponents Analysis

[marothisu]

This pretty much means nothing for who will win the game (necessarily), but is still fun to compare.

tl;dr: ISU has played way more games against tournament teams than Nevada and owns a much better record/win pct versus those teams. Both teams have played statistically, by the wins and losses, good teams. The games in which both teams won by either 1 or 2 possessions were against good or better teams on average. ISU's opponents were statistically better than Nevada's. They both lost close games to good teams - again ISU's opponents were statistically better than Nevada's here. The average team they beat by 10-20 points were mediocre and they both beat up on bad teams by 20+ teams on average.

Game could come down to experience, familiarity, etc. I know that MW basketball is not bad at all - it's one of the higher mid majors but ISU has been playing against physically gifted teams all year. Nevada has played some, but on average not nearly as much as ISU. ISU is hopefully well prepared but I doubt it is shaking in its boots as they have faced future NBA talent with teams like Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State (JuWon Evans), Texas (Jarrett Allen), etc.

tl;dr 2: This should be a fun game in the end with two teams who have been beating good teams.

Record Against Tournament Teams
* Iowa State: 10-7 (.588)
* Nevada: 1-2 (.333)

Record Against RPI Top 50
* Iowa State: 7-7 (.500)
* Nevada: 0-1 (.000)

Opponent Record of Teams They Beat
ISU: 286-261 (.523)
Nevada: 330-326 (.503)

Average Margin of Win
ISU: 15.4 points
Nevada: 13 points

Opponent Record of Teams They Lost To
ISU: 207-91 (.695)
Nevada: 103-59 (.636)

Average Margin of Loss
ISU: 6.2 points
Nevada: 9.5 points

Losses
Percentage of Losses By 1 Possession (3 or less points)
* ISU: 40%
* Nevada: 33%

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (not counting teams lost to more than once):
* ISU: 97-39 (.713)
* Nevada: 42-24 (.636)

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 38.2 NOTE -- Remove the bad Texas loss and the avg opponent RPI would be 8.5
* Nevada: 82

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Percentage of Losses by 2 Possessions or Less (6 points or less)
* ISU: 60%
* Nevada: 50%

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (2 poss or less - not counting teams lost to more than once):
* ISU: 144-54 (.727) -- Note: Remove the bad Texas loss and it would be 133-32 (.808)
* Nevada: 42-24 (.636)

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 38.2 NOTE -- Remove the bad Texas loss and the avg opponent RPI would be 14.4
* Nevada: 82
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Percentage of Losses by 10+ Points
* Nevada: 50%
* ISU: 30%

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (10+ pts - not counting teams lost to more than once):
* ISU: 44-22 (.666)
* Nevada: 61-35 (.635)

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 52.5
* Nevada: 98.7


Wins

Percentage of Wins By 1 Possession (3 or less points)
* ISU: 21.7%
* Nevada: 14.3%

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 82.4 -- Note: Remove Indiana State and it would be 44.5
* Nevada: 179.5


Average Opponent Record of Above Games (not counting teams beat more than once):
* ISU: 102-57 (.642)
* Nevada: 51-72 (.415)

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Percentage of Wins by 2 Possessions or Less (6 points or less)
* ISU: 34.8%
* Nevada: 21.4%

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 82.6 -- Note: Remove Indiana State and it would be 61
* Nevada: 162

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (not counting teams beat more than once):
* ISU: 159-98 (.619)
* Nevada: 92-95 (.492)

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Percentage of Wins by 10-20 Points
* Nevada: 42.9%
* ISU: 26.1%

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 130.2 -- Note: Remove Drake and it would be 93.4
* Nevada: 139.9

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (not counting teams beat more than once):
* Nevada: 199-182 (.522)
* ISU: 97-97 (.500)

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Percentage of Wins by 20+ Points
* ISU: 21.7%
* Nevada: 17.9%

Average Opponent RPI in above games
* ISU: 220.2
* Nevada: 233

Average Opponent Record of Above Games (not counting teams beat more than once):
* ISU: 69-91 (.381)
* Nevada: 43-84 (.339)

 

[CycloneBBFan]

Thanks for taking the time to post the above information. I think it's very interesting. That being said when it comes to tournament time I'm not sure how much that's going to matter. It's been effectively said on another thread this is a case of the known ISU vs the unknown Nevada. You are in a different conference with a different level of competition. I'm not sure if anyone knows how Nevada will perform against a Big 12 team like ISU. For myself, I consider the big X factor Musselman. His coaching philosophy is similar to our former coach Fred Hoiberg. Coaches like this are experts on finding and exploiting mismatches. How well Musselman adjusts to mismatches relative to the talent will determine IMO Nevada's performance. I did hear Musselman's radio interview posted and it's clear the overall strategy he's going to take. The biggest X-factor for ISU is our bench which can throw a major wrench into Nevada's strategy. Only time will tell.

 

[marothisu]

Totally agree with you that it's "known ISU" versus "maybe unknown Nevada". Still fun to see. Nevada's opponents were certainly not bad, but not on the same level's as ISU. However - the unknown and also the unpredictability of March.

 

[Frak]

Thanks for taking the time to post the above information. I think it's very interesting. That being said when it comes to tournament time I'm not sure how much that's going to matter. It's been effectively said on another thread this is a case of the known ISU vs the unknown Nevada. You are in a different conference with a different level of competition. I'm not sure if anyone knows how Nevada will perform against a Big 12 team like ISU. For myself, I consider the big X factor Musselman. His coaching philosophy is similar to our former coach Fred Hoiberg. Coaches like this are experts on finding and exploiting mismatches. How well Musselman adjusts to mismatches relative to the talent will determine IMO Nevada's performance. I did hear Musselman's radio interview posted and it's clear the overall strategy he's going to take. The biggest X-factor for ISU is our bench which can throw a major wrench into Nevada's strategy. Only time will tell.

So to me, it comes down to a few things:

1. If Burton is hitting, Nevada is done. If Naz is hitting too, it's a blowout.
2. If Burton gets in foul trouble, Nevada has a chance.
3. On offense, Nevada seems to like to screen and shoot. Young has done a great job of hedging out on the ball handler and Burton rotates into the lane. IF Nevada can make the pass out to the open guy in the corner, they have a chance to do some damage. That's a tough pass, but I'm sure that Musselman has done a good job of scouting that out.

 

[oldman]

Anything can happen in March. I think if three of our guys are on and we get some good bench play, we win. If four are on, it'll be a blow-out. If we only have two guys in the high teens or twenties, I'll be chewing nails.