It's already happened, just not public yet.
So if you're wrong are you going to own up to it and admit you were wrong or disappear? You've stated this as a fact multiple times so I have to assume you're totally confident about Fred leaving. I highly doubt many if any other than Fred actually know which way he's leaning yet people keep claiming it's a done deal. Sounds like a bunch of bs to me. I don't know whether he's staying or going but based on what I do know I'd put it at 50/50.