CyTwins

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Firstly, masks just reduce risk. They don't eliminate it, and you still have to employ things like distancing and avoiding high risk activities (like large crowds). If everyone did all those things, then yes, the virus would get knocked down significantly.

Secondly, the venn diagram between the people who will be in attendance at this game and those who cannot or will not wear a mask properly is practically a circle.

If fans are in the stands and not wearing masks they won't be in the stands. It's that simple
 

BCClone

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Thinking this through. Each side is what, 400 feet in length? The one side is 200 feet wide? There are about 100 rows per side but factor in the sukup, grass and jake suites to counter the top missing rows on the south. Now figure each set of tickets has 2 people in a group. You need 6 foot between people. So 2 foot a person and 6 foot between means 5 foot a person for easier math. 400+400+200 gives us 1000 foot of bleacher space per row. That equates to 200 people per row. Now factor 100 rows gives us 20,000 people who can social distance with only groups of 2. Some groups of 5-8 and you are pushing 25k with social distancing in JTS.
 
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Angie

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I am curious what people consider “normal” rates to be. According to the tests we had, they were very consistent at 2.2% and that was from a large swath of Iowa and the US. So that would say that out of 30k students there should be 660 that will have positive tests on any day. Where this gets difficult is how much of the contact tracing and other non symptom testing is just hitting people who had it and never knew. The CDC is saying that people can test positive up to 3 months after having had COVID. That may mean that you may have had it on July 4th and did not know, but your co-worker gets it and you get tested and guess what, you just got two weeks of quarantine. Good chance your whole family gets told to hunker down even though you haven’t actually had it for a couple months.

It gets so hard to know the correct answers, they more who get it, the more undetected ones we will find also. I am not as surprised as others with a spike this last week, I expected it before the reports is the parties happened. Situations like this always become self-fulfilling prophecies. If there are 3x as many cases as there are positives, that would throw us around 2000-2500 probably. I believe the numbers will drop after this week. Then things will start to even out. Just my thoughts.

But there were 60,000-ish people in Story County prior to the students coming, and we were at 247 cases on 8/14. You would expect to only see the rate go up by an additional 50% of that number if you were adding in people acting similarly (or roughly 124 additional positives). But it's not, it's gone up now to 1197 just yesterday, which is an increase of about 485% over the 247. Considering those students were all tested when they came onsite and there were only ~130 positives at the time, I don't think that the part about potentially being positive up to three months after is relevant other than for maybe 130 of them.

I don't think anyone should have been surprised by this, either. Even if there weren't parties (which is laughable), students by nature live in close quarters and have more community spaces. Most students interact with the community in some nature, so there is going to be community spread from them that will be trickling down coming up. Combined with the football game and Labor Day, if we use the increases around Memorial Day and the 4th as predictive (which would be a fair assessment), I think we'll see spikes again in about 2.5 to 3 weeks.

I totally get the desire for optimism, but again - the NYT numbers are not arguable by Wintersteen. They're just flat-out not about ISU.

Self-edit - up to 1214 today, per the Iowa COVID tracker that has been fluctuating pretty wildly lately.
 
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KnappShack

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Okay... I'm not trying to say I have a source but I heard from someone who heard from someone who has a kid on the team... they pretty much have a Varsity and Junior Varsity squad now. This 53 man roster tweet sort of backs it up.

Split the team in ~half and if there's an outbreak on the Varsity squad the JV will come up and the games (maybe) continue.

Move over Dirty Thirty

We have the COVID 50
 
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06_CY

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Thinking this through. Each side is what, 400 feet in length? The one side is 200 feet wide? There are about 100 rows per side but factor in the sukup, grass and jake suites to counter the top missing rows on the south. Now figure each set of tickets has 2 people in a group. You need 6 foot between people. So 2 foot a person and 6 foot between means 5 foot a person for easier math. 400+400+200 gives us 1000 foot of bleacher space per row. That equates to 200 people per row. Now factor 100 rows gives us 20,000 people who can social distance with only groups of 2. Some groups of 5-8 and you are pushing 25k with social distancing in JTS.

I'm going to need to see this drawn out on a chalkboard in long form. Please also include pictures, graphs, and a legend/scale key. TIA.
 
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VeloClone

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Thinking this through. Each side is what, 400 feet in length? The one side is 200 feet wide? There are about 100 rows per side but factor in the sukup, grass and jake suites to counter the top missing rows on the south. Now figure each set of tickets has 2 people in a group. You need 6 foot between people. So 2 foot a person and 6 foot between means 5 foot a person for easier math. 400+400+200 gives us 1000 foot of bleacher space per row. That equates to 200 people per row. Now factor 100 rows gives us 20,000 people who can social distance with only groups of 2. Some groups of 5-8 and you are pushing 25k with social distancing in JTS.
If you are using every row you are going to have to have them spaced out further than that to make sure guys in row 1 and row 2 are still 6' apart from each other.
 

cycloneG

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Thinking this through. Each side is what, 400 feet in length? The one side is 200 feet wide? There are about 100 rows per side but factor in the sukup, grass and jake suites to counter the top missing rows on the south. Now figure each set of tickets has 2 people in a group. You need 6 foot between people. So 2 foot a person and 6 foot between means 5 foot a person for easier math. 400+400+200 gives us 1000 foot of bleacher space per row. That equates to 200 people per row. Now factor 100 rows gives us 20,000 people who can social distance with only groups of 2. Some groups of 5-8 and you are pushing 25k with social distancing in JTS.

This doesn't factor in manspread.
 

madguy30

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I am curious what people consider “normal” rates to be. According to the tests we had, they were very consistent at 2.2% and that was from a large swath of Iowa and the US. So that would say that out of 30k students there should be 660 that will have positive tests on any day. Where this gets difficult is how much of the contact tracing and other non symptom testing is just hitting people who had it and never knew. The CDC is saying that people can test positive up to 3 months after having had COVID. That may mean that you may have had it on July 4th and did not know, but your co-worker gets it and you get tested and guess what, you just got two weeks of quarantine. Good chance your whole family gets told to hunker down even though you haven’t actually had it for a couple months.

It gets so hard to know the correct answers, they more who get it, the more undetected ones we will find also. I am not as surprised as others with a spike this last week, I expected it before the reports is the parties happened. Situations like this always become self-fulfilling prophecies. If there are 3x as many cases as there are positives, that would throw us around 2000-2500 probably. I believe the numbers will drop after this week. Then things will start to even out. Just my thoughts.

Drove through downtown Madison yesterday and everyone was moving in. You had kids that were presumably with their parents, and kids walking around in bunches.

I'd expect a huge surge here of reported case in about 3 weeks.
 

Cloneon

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Yep. Because no one ever breaks the rules in the stands. I'm sure no one ever drinks in the stadium outside of the club areas either.
The way you're acting, it'll likely be you to break the rules just to prove a point. For crying out loud, 100% of the people there will want football. 100% of the people there will abide by the rules because not doing so would ruin it for everyone.
 

WooBadger18

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I find it noteworthy that they are using every row, not skipping rows like at some venues.
That's probably the only way you can do it, right? If you had them skip rows you wouldn't be able to separate people side by sid.

I liked this because I think it's important that students support their fellow students. Let's just hope they comply better at the games than they do at the house parties & bars.
Me too. Students are really the ones that should be there. I I've been a student season ticket holder and a season ticket holder and while I prefer being in the "adult section" there is something special about being a student. Plus, the football team really represents the students more than almost any season ticket holder (except for members of the faculty/staff)

This is either going to go really well..... or really really really bad.
Yeah, and part of the problem is the fans can do "everything right" and this can still go wrong. Especially because there's going to be a difference between "everything right" and optimal. Because optimally, everyone would would have a mask that had a seal/filter, wouldn't cheer (because that could increase the range that they can spread the disease), and would always be socially distanced. But even if everyone follows the rules that won't be the case.
 

BCClone

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Drove through downtown Madison yesterday and everyone was moving in. You had kids that were presumably with their parents, and kids walking around in bunches.

I'd expect a huge surge here of reported case in about 3 weeks.

I know MN hasn’t started yet either. Part of ISU’s issue is that. We were one of the first to start, at least for our area. Another is like I mentioned before, people will get nervous in these situations and be more likely to get tested. I’m not saying they should not, but around home, they may just quarantine because they don’t have school to worry about, mom and dad can get them food and needs so they just hang out Incase they have it. Now they are on their own and it’s scarier so they have more of the positives get tested that wouldn’t otherwise.
 

alarson

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The way you're acting, it'll likely be you to break the rules just to prove a point. For crying out loud, 100% of the people there will want football. 100% of the people there will abide by the rules because not doing so would ruin it for everyone.

The fact that most of the people demanding we have full fan attendance were the ones demanding that we prematurely throw bars and restaurants wide open (which has correlated highly to increased case counts) and have been the largest opposition to wearing masks to reduce spread all summer shows that having faith in these people to suddenly do the right thing is severely misplaced.