PREDICTIONS: Oklahoma FB in the SEC

[WhoISthis]

OU is going to find the recruiting in Texas is going to be a lot tougher. Not only did the SEC add a Texas team, but the Big 12 added another Texas team to replace one it lost.

But what about 11 am kickoffs?


OU is going to realize they can’t run from themselves. The top SEC area recruits still don’t want to go to Oklahoma they will the top of SEC. Maybe they’ll be back ahead of A&M but I doubt it when OU is no longer printing conference titles and getting CFP berths

They did luck out that Arkansas and MU are protect rivals. But Arkansas could look similar to OU in NIL era

 

[AlaCyclone]

Lane probably knows he should stay put for a while, and they are compensating him well, so why not ride out another 5 years at Ole Miss before Kelly retires/gets canned at LSU and the same with Florida.

And like Johnny Vaught once said: "At Ole Miss, we redshirt Miss Americas!"

 

[RustShack]

I think it depends on their schedule. Wouldn’t surprise me if they win 9 or 10 most years. They do have an SEC coach now which may help.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

I don’t really see the parallels between NE to the Big 10 and OU to the SEC, mostly because OU will continue to play in their historical recruiting footprint. Nebraska gave that up with their move to the Big 10, then followed it up with coaching hires that didn’t pan out. I think OU will continue to be very good and 9-11 years will be the norm. They’ll be in the top 4 more often than not, but probably not win many conference titles.

I think Texas will continue to be mediocre and win 7-9 games most years. The middle and bottom of the SEC isn’t all that tough. They’re set up to have Iowa-like fake ID years when having an up year coincides with a year where they dodge all or most of the top teams.

Good point about the recruiting footprint. I just think on the Big 12, they're the top dog, so that has some pull. But now they're one of many, on the outskirts of the conference. Look how many top recruits followed Riley to USC. I can just see a slide to mediocrity and that would be hard to recover from for them.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Nobody said they'd be better. I said they'd be "OK" and upper half to third. That's top 8 to 5ish. Where do you think they'll be?

The upper third would definitely be better than they’ve been. I think they will be right around bowl eligibility most years. That is until they realize their problem is an institutional culture problem.

 

[ZRF]

Nick Saban is definitely elite. However, so is Alabama. Before he stepped foot on campus to coach the Tide, Alabama was already first in every single category in SEC history: Wins, Winning Percentage, National Championships, SEC Championships, Bowl Games, Bowl Wins, you name it. Just as an example, he is the 5th coach to lead Alabama to Undefeated, Untied Bowl Championship seasons following Wallace Wade, Frank Thomas, Bear Bryant and Gene Stallings and the 4th to do it twice (Stallings only had one). They are also the only SEC team to win at least one SEC Championship in every decade.

What's your point? Nebraska was a powerhouse throughout most of it's history and had been elite more recently. At the time Saban walked onto Alabama's campus, it wasn't necessarily a job that was any better than half the SEC (obviously there was is/was more potential at Bama than Nebraska). Objectively the success and the level of it has more to do with Saban than Alabama's history.

 

[ZRF]

What's their record in the playoffs? they've won one national championship since 1985 and that was in 2000 - 22 years ago. Do you think they're going to fare better playing Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, and A&M? Looks to me like about third in the league will be their average.

Auburn had a player who should have been ineligible (Newton) get them a title. With LSU it was Saban coattails and the miraculous transfer and recruitment of Joe Burrow that got them theirs. A&M has always had potential and Fischer is the kind of scum that usually succeeds in the SEC. Georgia was always a sleeping giant and looks to have hired a guy that can keep them there. I'd argue Florida will likely be better than all but Bama and Georgia long term.

Then you mention playoff record. You realize ONLY four ******* teams have won multiple games in the first round since it started? Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia. Of those only Alabama and Clemson have more than two. It's basically been dominated by Alabama and Clemson since it's inception, with a smattering of other teams. It's not like OU has been some outlying failure (even though they have had more chances to do so than most teams).

It's less about talent and ability than making the right hires. That starts with the HC then filters down to the coordinators. Saban is a genius at pivoting and making good hires. Dabo is also good. Looks like Smart as well. Most everyone had to luck into a QB other than maybe smart. OU has had the QB's but was often missing coordinators, at least on the defensive side.

SEC schedule will be 4 cream puffs, other home games, and 4 other road games. They will win at least 3 home games most years, and win at least 2 road games most years. Worst case 8-4 best case 10 wins plus provided they have the right guys manning the help. Norman sucks balls, but if people can recruit to Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa, they will have no problems doing so in Norman.

 

[brett108]

They'll reach elite level after a brief adjustment period. A&M is a good example.

Is A/M elite though? No CFP appearances since the onset. I think OU will be similar to that, which is not elite. I think A/M will actually go down a position with OU coming in if they are both in the same Division. OU, in total, will not be punching their ticket to the CFP much in the new setup. They have to hope that when Saban is wheeled out of Tuscaloosa in a casket that they make the wrong hire.

 

[AlaCyclone]

What's your point? Nebraska was a powerhouse throughout most of it's history and had been elite more recently. At the time Saban walked onto Alabama's campus, it wasn't necessarily a job that was any better than half the SEC (obviously there was is/was more potential at Bama than Nebraska). Objectively the success and the level of it has more to do with Saban than Alabama's history.

I give Saban all the praise in the world for what he has done at Alabama, but he did not walk into a black hole. Alabama was in a minor historical blip not totally evaporated like Minnesota, Army and Pitt.

My point is that Alabama was Elite for a long time before Nick Saban showed up and not too far in the distant either. Obviously, they were down a bit before he took over and maximized their potential, but they were only 2 years removed from a Cotton Bowl 10-win season (2005), 8 years from an SEC Championship (1999) and 15 years from a National Championship (1992) which were droughts by their standards, but minor by most.

For example, Oklahoma is in a 22 year National Championship drought, and Notre Dame is in a 34 year National Championship drought. Maybe it's because I am older, but I look at the time between Stallings and Saban (1997-2006) as just a minor blip, and they still had three 10-win seasons (1999, 2002 and 2005), won an SEC Championship (1999) and won a Cotton Bowl (2005).

They were NOT Elite during that ten year stretch, but they never strayed too far from it for too long. Just up and down. For example, they haven't gone more than 3 years without a 10-win season since 1981-5. From 1986-2006, Alabama won 10 or more in 1986, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005. That's more 10 win seasons between Bryant (retired in 1982) and Saban (hired in 2007) than most schools have in their history.

I'll just pull Michigan State out of the hat. I bet they don't have nine or more 10-win seasons in their entire history. I may be wrong, but I bet I am not far off of that mark.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I give Saban all the praise in the world for what he has done at Alabama, but he did not walk into a black hole. Alabama was in a minor historical blip not totally evaporated like Minnesota, Army and Pitt.

My point is that Alabama was Elite for a long time before Nick Saban showed up and not too far in the distant either. Obviously, they were down a bit before he took over and maximized their potential, but they were only 2 years removed from a Cotton Bowl 10-win season (2005), 8 years from an SEC Championship (1999) and 15 years from a National Championship (1992) which were droughts by their standards, but minor by most.

For example, Oklahoma is in a 22 year National Championship drought, and Notre Dame is in a 34 year National Championship drought. Maybe it's because I am older, but I look at the time between Stallings and Saban (1997-2006) as just a minor blip, and they still had three 10-win seasons (1999, 2002 and 2005), won an SEC Championship (1999) and won a Cotton Bowl (2005).

They were NOT Elite during that ten year stretch, but they never strayed too far from it for too long. Just up and down. For example, they haven't gone more than 3 years without a 10-win season since 1981-5. From 1986-2006, Alabama won 10 or more in 1986, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005. That's more 10 win seasons between Bryant (retired in 1982) and Saban (hired in 2007) than most schools have in their history.

I'll just pull Michigan State out of the hat. I bet they don't have nine or more 10-win seasons in their entire history. I may be wrong, but I bet I am not far off of that mark.

Actually we have exactly 9 although 7 of them are in the last 11 years so it’s a very recent history. Part of that is due to playing more games then in decades past and another part is being god awful through the 80’s and 90’s.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Auburn had a player who should have been ineligible (Newton) get them a title. With LSU it was Saban coattails and the miraculous transfer and recruitment of Joe Burrow that got them theirs. A&M has always had potential and Fischer is the kind of scum that usually succeeds in the SEC. Georgia was always a sleeping giant and looks to have hired a guy that can keep them there. I'd argue Florida will likely be better than all but Bama and Georgia long term.

Then you mention playoff record. You realize ONLY four ******* teams have won multiple games in the first round since it started? Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia. Of those only Alabama and Clemson have more than two. It's basically been dominated by Alabama and Clemson since it's inception, with a smattering of other teams. It's not like OU has been some outlying failure (even though they have had more chances to do so than most teams).

It's less about talent and ability than making the right hires. That starts with the HC then filters down to the coordinators. Saban is a genius at pivoting and making good hires. Dabo is also good. Looks like Smart as well. Most everyone had to luck into a QB other than maybe smart. OU has had the QB's but was often missing coordinators, at least on the defensive side.

SEC schedule will be 4 cream puffs, other home games, and 4 other road games. They will win at least 3 home games most years, and win at least 2 road games most years. Worst case 8-4 best case 10 wins plus provided they have the right guys manning the help. Norman sucks balls, but if people can recruit to Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa, they will have no problems doing so in Norman.

With the money LSU has and the talent in Louisiana, they should be on Alabamas level every year.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Actually we have exactly 9 although 7 of them are in the last 11 years so it’s a very recent history. Part of that is due to playing more games then in decades past and another part is being god awful through the 80’s and 90’s.

Thank you for the info! Wasn't picking on Sparty. Just grabbed them out of the air since Saban coached there too. I was just showing that if Alabama's lowest period since the 50s (still won an SEC Championship, won an Orange Bowl and had a 10-win season in that terrible decade) could match a fine historical program like MSU all-time, Alabama might have been ELITE before Saban showed up.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Thank you for the info! Wasn't picking on Sparty. Just grabbed them out of the air since Saban coached there too. I was just showing that if Alabama's lowest period since the 50s (still won an SEC Championship, won an Orange Bowl and had a 10-win season in that terrible decade) could match a fine historical program like MSU all-time, Alabama might have been ELITE before Saban showed up.

All good man, also made me remember that cfb used to have ties when I was looking back at the old seasons.

Texas at some point will be good. They simply have to much recruiting talent to stay mediocre forever. Not sure if the current staff can do it or not but at some point they will be near the top. OU without their offensive minded coaches is a huge question mark. I was stunned when they brought in a defensive HC becuase they have a made a name for producing offensive talent lately.

 

[AlaCyclone]

All good man, also made me remember that cfb used to have ties when I was looking back at the old seasons.

Texas at some point will be good. They simply have to much recruiting talent to stay mediocre forever. Not sure if the current staff can do it or not but at some point they will be near the top. OU without their offensive minded coaches is a huge question mark. I was stunned when they brought in a defensive HC becuase they have a made a name for producing offensive talent lately.

Did a little snooping myself, and I cannot believe how bad Texas has been since 2010! They literally plunged from a constant 10-game winner to nowheresville with 8 straight seasons without winning 10 games before the 10-4 Sugar Bowl season in 2018.

A secondary thing I noticed was that Tom Herman was 4-0 in Bowl Games. Just odd random stats. That being said, they have enough talent to bcome a Championship caliber team in 2 years with the right HC.

 

[WAHawk]

Their recruiting is impressive right now. Depends on how the new coach is.