Prohm is 9-16 at ISU

CascadeClone

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This is a little tricky to compare straight up. You can control a game, have an 8 point lead with 1 minute to go, give up a layup and a 3 and win by 3. So it looks like a close win but really it wasn't. Reverse could be true too.

But as a proxy it's still a reasonable measure, especially with a decent sample size.

Maybe an interesting stat would be W/L in games where it was 4 pts or less at the 2 minute mark. I'm probably overthinking this.

They do say that in baseball, 1 run games are basically attributable to the manager's skill.
 

megamanxzero35

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They haven't had a dynamite scorer at the rim last couple years. That helps you in close games. Either a guard who can get to the rim at will or a post player who is automatic in the post.
 
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VeloClone

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Yep. Floyd is the only coach i've ever seen that would start committing intentional fouls with 4 or 5 minutes left in the game and it always seemed to work .
Who do you think you are kidding? Floyd would have been putting Samuel on the line as soon as ISU put TCU in the one and one in the first half.
 
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SCyclone

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I'm still trying to figure out why Prohm didn't have someone foul at the end of regulation Saturday. Why even risk a chance at a (miracle) 3?
 

Al_4_State

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I'm still trying to figure out why Prohm didn't have someone foul at the end of regulation Saturday. Why even risk a chance at a (miracle) 3?

Fred did this too. It's just maddeningly stupid and seems to never work. I'm pretty sure analytics have made this clear, and the laws of ISU getting ****** absolutely dictate it.
 
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CoKane

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That'll happen when you just tell someone to go shoot and don't have any plan as to how to get him open, how to get him the ball, or how to get an easier matchup on him.
 

VeloClone

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Fred did this too. It's just maddeningly stupid and seems to never work. I'm pretty sure analytics have made this clear, and the laws of ISU getting ****** absolutely dictate it.
I thought someone posted a study that was done and the not fouling actually was minutely more successful than the fouling even though they were both well over 90% win rate.
 
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clone52

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In games decided by 3 points or less. These last pair of heartbreakers made me curious as to how good we've been in the Prohm era in one possession games. I tried to count OT as less than 3 but may have missed one or two. Just to deepen the look I also checked games decided by 6 points or less:
2019-20: 3: 0-2 6: 0-3
2018-19: 3: 1-4 6: 5-7
2017-18: 3: 1-2 6: 3-6
2016-17: 3: 5-4 6: 8-7
2015-16: 3: 2-4 6: 4-7
Total: 3: 9-16 (36%) 6: 20-30 (40%)

I did an analysis last year and what this doesn't take into account is how you end games. Basically, if a game was close in the last couple minutes, Prohm's teams won about 50% of the time. Its just that oftentimes his teams were able to pull away and win by about 5-10 points, so looking at the final score, it didn't seem close. Not nearly as often did the opponent pull away at the end.
 

chuckd4735

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I'm still trying to figure out why Prohm didn't have someone foul at the end of regulation Saturday. Why even risk a chance at a (miracle) 3?

Because Prohm is not allowed to run on the court and push our players into the opposing players. He can only go as far as instructing them what to do, which he did, and his instructions were to foul.

Now if you want to discuss the reason the players are not doing what he says, sure, but Prohm told them to foul.
 
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Urbandale2013

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I thought someone posted a study that was done and the not fouling actually was minutely more successful than the fouling even though they were both well over 90% win rate.
Yeah. I don’t for the life of me understand why that is what people are hanging the issue on with the TCU game.

Personally my thought has always been under 5 seconds foul. If more play D. The part I find so much more maddening is that he told them to foul and they couldn’t execute it. We shouldn’t be at the point in this staffs tenure where they can’t get the team to regularly execute their strategy.
 

coolerifyoudid

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I'm still trying to figure out why Prohm didn't have someone foul at the end of regulation Saturday. Why even risk a chance at a (miracle) 3?

It looked like Conditt was supposed to foul him, but didn't get out there in time and didn't want to foul him in the act of shooting.

Before they inbounded the ball, I wanted them to double Nembhard and be prepared to foul before the ball got over halfcourt. I know the percentages favor playing defense in that situation, but when the other team is shooting >50% from three, you have to adjust.

I'm sure it's probably been argued to death in other threads on here already, but it was inexcusable to allow Nembhard or Bane to get anything close to a clean look. They ended up 10-14 from beyond the arc.
 
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mdk2isu

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It looked like Conditt was supposed to foul him, but didn't get out there in time and didn't want to foul him in the act of shooting.

Before they inbounded the ball, I wanted them to double Nembhard and be prepared to foul before the ball got over halfcourt. I know the percentages favor playing defense in that situation, but when the other team is shooting >50% from three, you have to adjust.

I'm sure it's probably been argued to death in other threads on here already, but it was inexcusable to allow Nembhard or Bane to get anything close to a clean look. They ended up 10-14 from beyond the arc.

A running 30 footer is hardly a clean look.
 

Sigmapolis

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I am skeptical of this "close game magic" stuff.

The advance stats say that is mostly luck in the long-term.

Everybody regresses to the 50-50 mean with enough of a sample size.
 
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Al_4_State

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I thought someone posted a study that was done and the not fouling actually was minutely more successful than the fouling even though they were both well over 90% win rate.

For some reason I thought it was significantly the other way.

ISU has lost at least 5-6 games in the past 5-6 years where they had a 3 point lead inside of 10 seconds, and both Fred and Steve were guilty.
 

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