Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[PickSix]

Anyone suggesting a merger is still on the table is a moron.

My feelings as well. A merger benefits literally nobody outside of WSU and OSU. and they're not the ones calling the shots.

 

[CoKane]

You don't promote a mid major, period. You take any P5 school that can maintain or improve your per school payout and then you hold there. If the Pac crumbles, then the ACC is likely to do the same. You hold spots for potential ACC defections.

I think you absolutely do if they add more value than particular P5 options. If SDSU brings more money than Cal or Oregon State then they're the one to add

 

[JUKEBOX]

Wilner, a well connected PAC journalist.

He’s not a homer, although obviously he’ll present a PAC pov because that’s who he is talking to.


It confirms the negotiating is ongoing and as of now unlikely we don’t see more moves. Someone is getting some PAC is the most likely outcome. The PAC has factions that want it to be all.

A change from the ignorant initial reaction by those that assumed a rump PAC would add Big 12 schools, even while not even knowing which schools would be in the PAC

8 schools to Big 12 is okay. Still leaves 4 spots for ACC. The main objective is complete in that PAC is done, and Big 12 is too strong for ESPN to easily liquidate in 3 years. And a good chance some are eventually gone anyway.

Full merger seems premature unless ACC/ESPN is serious about top of PAC to ACC.

The Big 12 needs to work the mountain 4 on how confident are they in making the eventual P3 if it’s the ACC that is the base. There are then 22 schools hoping to get in for 10 spots. A big risk not all mountain 4 make it, and even if so, likekly to just end up in a conference built on leftover ACC like BC, Wake, Cuse. This is the only chance they can dictate they are in the P3, one that is sort of based around them

I agree and think the Mountain schools are probably key. They have a chance to control their own destiny and deferring that decision probably puts their programs in a more risky situation in the future.

I'd imagine their admins are crunching numbers at the moment to validate their future decision.

 

[aeroclone]

I think you absolutely do if they add more value than particular P5 options. If SDSU brings more money than Cal or Oregon State then they're the one to add

You only add them if they raise the value of the Big 12 contract. They may be more valuable than Oregon State, but Oregon State isn't getting an invite either if they don't raise the payouts for our current schools. In order to do that, they need to be better than the average of our current members. Do you honestly think SDSU is in the top half of our current membership? Keep in mind that the current PAC schools are already struggling because nobody on the west coast seems to care about college sports.

 

[Stormin]

Generally I agree. But if the TV people bidding on the next contract say SDSU has accretive value, then they get promoted.

Like I said, I am skeptical- but a TV network may see value in having a SoCal school.

Similar to why Houston was added to Big12, TV folks like access to the largest media markets.

Houston used to be a part of the old Southwest Conference. They have constantly been a border P5 school. Some very good football and basketball teams in the recent past. That is in addition to being a large city university. San Diego is a pretty city.

 

[isucy86]

Its been said a bunch in here but put me in the camp as we don't really need Utah and BYU. Its a state with the same population as Iowa. The B1G wants nothing to do with us because they already have an Iowa School. Big12 already has the bigger richer Utah school. I've seen lots of Ute posts belittling Big12, ISU, Midwest. Just seems like they've gotten a bit big for their britches for being a WAC team a decade ago. I do get the "it adds a natural rival for BYU" stance but why must we make sure every noob has its natural rival and continue to make us and WVU the rival-less schools?

Realignment isn't about rivalries, egotistical fan bases, 1 or 2 schools in a state, etc.

It's only about MONEY. Utah is in a large metro and from all indications would GROW per school revenue. That makes them a take.

 

[alarson]

Houston used to be a part of the old Southwest Conference. They have constantly been a border P5 school. Some very good football and basketball teams in the recent past. That is in addition to being a large city university. San Diego is a pretty city.

Had a pretty good record vs big 12 schools lately too

 

[CloneGuy8]

Come on, Arizona. You know you want to be in the premier basketball conference. We want you. It just makes too much sense.

 

[WhoISthis]

Houston, Cincy, and UCF were desperation adds at a time when we didn't have any better options. It was last call and that was all we had left. The hope is they have potential and grow, but that isn't for sure. If we could have gotten a current P5 school instead we would have taken just about any of them over the schools we added.

We are in a stronger place now, we don't have to go dumpster diving. None of these G5 schools add more than they dilute from current members. Hell, a lot of lower P5 schools are a net negative, hence why OSU and WSU look like they could be left on the outside. Maybe Cal and Stanford as well.

They were more than that.

They pull better than many P5 schools, and will perform better than many P5s. Which is why as P5s we don’t want them in. Some P5s just got demoted.

Houston is an old peer of several P5s, and Cincinnati was in Big East with WVU and nearly half the ACC

SDSU may or may not be the same way. I’m not saying we take them, but in terms of west coast additions, the only thing many west schools had on them was conference affiliation. As we saw with Utah. With a PAC dead or diminished, that’s gone.

The primary reason to take some of these P5s is not because of value added or that they’ll do well in a P2 era. It’s to kill off competing conferences. Ideally you’d take as little as possible to do that, then move on to taking schools best setup to succeed making half the P2. That means some G5’s that have proven to compete with P5s while making 1/4

 

[WalkingCY]

I just talked to neighbor who works in sports media rights in LA, is dialed into Pac/Big 12 and alum of one of the rumored adds, kind of guy who followed Big 12 media days for his job. Sure sounds like the 4 mountain schools still very excited to come on board.

 

[isucy86]

Houston used to be a part of the old Southwest Conference. They have constantly been a border P5 school. Some very good football and basketball teams in the recent past. That is in addition to being a large city university. San Diego is a pretty city.

San Diego is a pretty city, but it is also the 27th biggest DMA. Bigger than Salt Lake City, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Des Moines (#68). It is also adjacent to Los Angeles (#2).

The TV values don't happen in a vacuum. If they did, Houston would have been brought into the Big12 before 2021. University of Houston's value to the Big12 grew because the Big12 lost Texas. Texas was the Big12's in for the Houston DMA. After losing A&M & Texas over the last decade, then UH was the best way to gain visibility into Houston.

Could very well be the same for SDSU. With UCLA & USC moving to the Big10, SDSU's media value could have grown if TV Execs feel SDSU is the best school to deliver visibility to the San Diego and Los Angeles DMA.

 

[jakemcilroy]

I think the big 12 should narrow their focus from the four mountain schools and do something like this:

Tell Arizona and Arizona State they have 30 days to accept our offer if they don’t we are going to offer Oregon state & Washington state. The Entire conference is a House of cards… Even defections by their two Least valuable assets could make everything tumble down and bring more schools to the big 12.

Washington State & Oregon State would be stupid not to come if given the opportunity because you tell them if they don’t and others do we’re gonna freeze you out.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

With 18 (like if UW and Oregon join), you could protect 2 or 3 games and then play 7 of the remaining 15 or 6 of 14, for something close to playing everyone once per 2 seasons and never less than once per 3 seasons. That’s a lot more reasonable to me than once per 6!

I left out the most obvious 1 protected plus 8/8 rotation - but either KU or ISU loses the K-State rivalry in that so i don’t like it.

Houston, Cincy, and UCF were desperation adds at a time when we didn't have any better options. It was last call and that was all we had left. The hope is they have potential and grow, but that isn't for sure. If we could have gotten a current P5 school instead we would have taken just about any of them over the schools we added.

We are in a stronger place now, we don't have to go dumpster diving. None of these G5 schools add more than they dilute from current members. Hell, a lot of lower P5 schools are a net negative, hence why OSU and WSU look like they could be left on the outside. Maybe Cal and Stanford as

I disagree any of these should be looked at as desperation adds.

Houston, Cincy, and UCF were desperation adds at a time when we didn't have any better options. It was last call and that was all we had left. The hope is they have potential and grow, but that isn't for sure. If we could have gotten a current P5 school instead we would have taken just about any of them over the schools we added.

We are in a stronger place now, we don't have to go dumpster diving. None of these G5 schools add more than they dilute from current members. Hell, a lot of lower P5 schools are a net negative, hence why OSU and WSU look like they could be left on the outside. Maybe Cal and Stanford as well.

I have a hard time with this take. I guess we don’t know what was in the heads of those in charge when they extended the invites, but I honestly think the four schools added were really solid adds…to the point where I think we might end up being in a better position than we would have been with Oklahoma and Texas…especially if you look 5-10 years down the road. Texas would have been a long shot to win anything and were a drag on the collective getting things done in my opinion. Oklahoma may have had a chance at winning a national championship in football. I could see this group having about as good a chance of getting one in football…and possibly 2 or more in basketball in that time. Not to mention just more fun to watch…

 

[isucy86]

I think the big 12 should narrow their focus from the four mountain schools and do something like this:

Tell Arizona and Arizona State they have 30 days to accept our offer if they don’t we are going to offer Oregon state & Washington state. The Entire conference is a House of cards… Even defections by their two Least valuable assets could make everything tumble down and bring more schools to the big 12.

Washington State & Oregon State would be stupid not to come if given the opportunity because you tell them if they don’t and others do we’re gonna freeze you out.

The Big12 would be stupid to offer WSU & OSU. They are the 2 lowest value Pac12 schools. By adding them first, it puts the Big12 in a worse position to add ASU, UA, UU, etc.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

I think the big 12 should narrow their focus from the four mountain schools and do something like this:

Tell Arizona and Arizona State they have 30 days to accept our offer if they don’t we are going to offer Oregon state & Washington state. The Entire conference is a House of cards… Even defections by their two Least valuable assets could make everything tumble down and bring more schools to the big 12.

Washington State & Oregon State would be stupid not to come if given the opportunity because you tell them if they don’t and others do we’re gonna freeze you out.

I think we should go after the Arizona schools, Utah, and Stanford. Then work on an agreement for Notre Dame to be a non-con opponent for 3-4 teams each year (even better if you have regular games against Stanford, BYU, Cincinnati, and either WVU or UCF. If you can lock that in, then try to get Bedlam to happen along with a solid power 5 non-con rival for each other school. That drives value for the Big 12 brand, gives Notre Dame stability as an independent (which gives us more stability), and probably honestly elevates us closer to the Big10 in the P2/P3 battle.

 

[CoKane]

I think the big 12 should narrow their focus from the four mountain schools and do something like this:

Tell Arizona and Arizona State they have 30 days to accept our offer if they don’t we are going to offer Oregon state & Washington state. The Entire conference is a House of cards… Even defections by their two Least valuable assets could make everything tumble down and bring more schools to the big 12.

Washington State & Oregon State would be stupid not to come if given the opportunity because you tell them if they don’t and others do we’re gonna freeze you out.

No

 

[CoKane]

I think we should go after the Arizona schools, Utah, and Stanford. Then work on an agreement for Notre Dame to be a non-con opponent for 3-4 teams each year (even better if you have regular games against Stanford, BYU, Cincinnati, and either WVU or UCF. If you can lock that in, then try to get Bedlam to happen along with a solid power 5 non-con rival for each other school. That drives value for the Big 12 brand, gives Notre Dame stability as an independent (which gives us more stability), and probably honestly elevates us closer to the Big10 in the P2/P3 battle.

My take rankings are:
Oregon
Washington
Zonas
Utah/Stanford/Colorado
Cal/Washington St/Oregon State

 

[CloneGuy8]

The only way Oregon State and Washington State are in the Big 12 is if there is either a full-on merger, or its the only way to get Oregon and Washington as part of the deal.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

The only way Oregon State and Washington State are in the Big 12 is if there is either a full-on merger, or its the only way to get Oregon and Washington as part of the deal.

I think you would have to really think hard as to whether Oregon and Washington were valuable enough to warrant bringing along Oregon State and Washington State.

 

[drmwevr08]

Ok, we've said the same things over enough now but we have folks suggesting offering wazzu first. I think this thread should locked until something actually happens. We've jumped the shark.