Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

It is relevant if the teams you are adding have really poor numbers and there are only a few spots. We don't need 6 teams that nobody watches. And we certainly don't need two teams in Arizona that nobody watches. If there were two teams in Arizona that had great numbers and followings then by all means take both, but that isn't the case.

we'll take some risk that we are spending a little money if it kills the PAC.

But if the BIG or another conference does that first, then who knows.
I'd still like to take them, but there is way less urgency if the BIG just took 2-4 more, presumably at least one of UW or Oregon. If it is just the 4 corners plus Oregon St and WSU, and we only take AZ and CU, where would Utah and ASU go in which we could not add them later as needed?

 

[RustShack]

we'll take some risk that we are spending a little money if it kills the PAC.

But if the BIG or another conference does that first, then who knows.
I'd still like to take them, but there is way less urgency if the BIG just took 2-4 more, presumably at least one of UW or Oregon. If it is just the 4 corners plus Oregon St and WSU, and we only take AZ and CU, where would Utah and ASU go in which we could not add them later as needed?

The four corners combined don’t lower value. Just take them now. Streamers want to overpay, and they want 16+ schools.

 

[WhoISthis]

Seems like they don’t care if Apple outbids them for Tier 1, or else they would have locked them up by now. The only explanation for ESPN to hold out a higher number until the end is to see if anyone else defects, or to put pressure on others to defect…and in either case if you really wanted/needed that content, why play that game to risk it on the open market?

With the new expanded SEC, ACC, and AAC…maybe some Big12 sprinkled in there (hopefully not), they can blast their networks with content they already own. I don’t see how they absolutely need that weak PAC content…I also doubt Apple wants to pay over market for Tier 1 without USC/UCLA as their first solo venture.

It may just be the case that the market isn’t really digging the leftover PAC. ESPN’s offer of $25-$26 million might not be a lowball offer after all…it could be right on point.

Imo, it seems like although ESPN wants the PAC to stay and be an ESPN voting bloc, like everyone else, they see where this is going. Why the **** would even ESPN want to go long on the PAC? They're trying to subsidize and get clever in tricking that conference to stay together without actually going in on it.

A lot of "potential" and "upside" of things mostly just concepts. Trying to swindle these schools into staying together. Like loose scheduling alliance, unequal revenue distributions, moving top games to 11pm ET time slot (lol), going more on ESPN streaming so they can rework the books,

 

[WhoISthis]

The four corners combined don’t lower value. Just take them now. Streamers want to overpay, and they want 16+ schools.

Maybe, maybe not.

We'd need to know what other combination of 4 schools is possible. If Stanford leaves, and UW is willing to fold on the conference (which some say they are more open to even now), then just AZ, CU, UW, and Oregon may be more profitable. We could at least take our time and see what happens next at that point. Just one example.

But the point isn't even whether they would lower value. The point is, you have to get them to want to come first. So it is very valid to question whether we would always want all 4.

 

[2speedy1]

Does @ribsnwhiskey actually contribute to a conversation ever, or just come in and Dumb random posts?

By the looks of his history he has Dumbed more posts than he has commented in the last year.

I normally don't care, but if you have an opinion and think everything that people are saying is dumb, maybe you could actually state an opinion once in awhile instead of just labeling everything dumb, and not being willing to give your own input.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Realignment notebook: Pac-12 remains at odds

Realignment notebook: Pac-12 remains at odds

247sports.com

 

[CYTUTT]

A lot of "potential" and "upside" of things mostly just concepts. Trying to swindle these schools into staying together. Like loose scheduling alliance, unequal revenue distributions, moving top games to 11pm ET time slot (lol), going more on ESPN streaming so they can rework the books,

Isn't this whole thing a swindle?

 

[JUKEBOX]

I think if Mountain schools have good leadership, and if the numbers thrown around are accurate, they will be in the Big 12.

This is probably the best chance they have to ensure they don't get left out in P2 + 1 and long-term stability. It seems like from the rumors, Arizona and Colorado are the most likely to make the jump first.

Arizona
- Seems most realistic about the situation. Their 247 guy is on top of it; not sure if he has donor / athletic department connections or anything like that.

Arizona State
- AD seems foolish. Not all that confident in their decision-making. Could see them tag along though if other teams left. Fans don't seem to like the AD from what I can tell.

Colorado
- Most fans seem to be onboard with going back to the Big 12 and are realistic with the situation. Fans seem skeptical of their admin decision-making.

Utah
- Haven't looked that much, but from what I can gather they really hate BYU which leads to sort of irrational behavior. I'm not all that confident that they would be the first chess piece, but I could be wrong there.

My prediction is that sometime in August when our new commissioner takes over, that Arizona and Colorado will jump. I've also read that other things would maybe need to get sorted out beforehand (like the B1G contract or something), so maybe it could be a little longer than August.

 

[WhoISthis]

Realignment notebook: Pac-12 remains at odds

Realignment notebook: Pac-12 remains at odds

247sports.com

-I fail to see why any of schools with a Big 12 offer, would prefer to add SDSU and Fresno to the PAC, just meaning more competition for CA recruits. Why would AZ, ASU want the Aztecs to be their peer? We had to with Houston, because of what was coming this summer. And, it likely doesn't make the conference more money, although that is irrelevant if the PAC is going clown-show level on unequal revenue sharing

-the last part is where I am at. I think it comes down to whether ESPN wants to subsidize the PAC to stay. Do they do another Longhorn Network deal in which they find a way to overpay to keep the conference together? That is why ESPN (Thamel) is pushing unequal revenue so hard for PAC and ACC. If they can just pay Oregon and UW and FSU and Clemson more, it is cheap for ESPN

 

[isucy86]

-I fail to see why any of schools with a Big 12 offer, would prefer to add SDSU and Fresno to the PAC, just meaning more competition for CA recruits. Why would AZ, ASU want the Aztecs to be their peer? We had to with Houston, because of what was coming this summer. And, it likely doesn't make the conference more money, although that is irrelevant if the PAC is going clown-show level on unequal revenue sharing

-the last part is where I am at. I think it comes down to whether ESPN wants to subsidize the PAC to stay. Do they do another Longhorn Network deal in which they find a way to overpay to keep the conference together? That is why ESPN (Thamel) is pushing unequal revenue so hard for PAC and ACC. If they can just pay Oregon and UW and FSU and Clemson more, it is cheap for ESPN

I have a hard time believing ESPN is the all powerful entity with unlimited pockets that some people describe.

Since their purchasing parts of the Big12 & Pac12 media rights (at much lower investment) nearly a decade ago.

1. They have made long term investments in the ACCN.
2. They purchased exclusive rights to the SEC.
3. Plus, they are going to have to up their SEC deal to pay OU/UT.
4. In 2026 the CFB playoff will be 8 or 12 teams. Even if the package is divided, that could be a $1B investment.

I would be surprised if Disney wants to be so invested in CFB. Plus there are potential players like Amazon & Apple that could buy Disney without blinking. Plus there are entities like Netflix, CBS & NBC that could want a slice of live sports. Also Fox might want CFB programming outside the Big10 although they might have an eye on the CFB Playoff).

 

[Cloneon]

I have a hard time believing ESPN is the all powerful entity with unlimited pockets that some people describe.

Since their purchasing parts of the Big12 & Pac12 media rights (at much lower investment) nearly a decade ago.

1. They have made long term investments in the ACCN.
2. They purchased exclusive rights to the SEC.
3. Plus, they are going to have to up their SEC deal to pay OU/UT.
4. In 2026 the CFB playoff will be 8 or 12 teams. Even if the package is divided, that could be a $1B investment.

I would be surprised if Disney wants to be so invested in CFB. Plus there are potential players like Amazon & Apple that could buy Disney without blinking. Plus there are entities like Netflix, CBS & NBC that could want a slice of live sports. Also Fox might want CFB programming outside the Big10 although they might have an eye on the CFB Playoff).

I, like you, do not see the deep pockets. I'm going so far as to try and identify an ulterior motive to ESPN's spending. Could they be trying to corner the market to make ESPN more marketable (Disney has expressed on more than one occasion to sell off ESPN)? The biggest piece of the pie is the CFP. The CFP will heavily be influenced by ESPN which, in itself, doesn't seem legal unless they're considered the owners. Which brings a whole new level of taxation. I guess we'll see.

 

[CascadeClone]

I, like you, do not see the deep pockets. I'm going so far as to try and identify an ulterior motive to ESPN's spending. Could they be trying to corner the market to make ESPN more marketable (Disney has expressed on more than one occasion to sell off ESPN)? The biggest piece of the pie is the CFP. The CFP will heavily be influenced by ESPN which, in itself, doesn't seem legal unless they're considered the owners. Which brings a whole new level of taxation. I guess we'll see.

I don't think it's a spin off plan. Disney buys quality content that they know is popular (Marvel, Star Wars, Muppets). ESPN has bought the "quality" content which to them is the SEC. The other piece they want is the CFP. Everything they do now is geared towards influencing whatever conferences or powers that are left will agree to a big CFP with as many open spots for their SEC products as possible. And saving cash to make sure they get the CFP rights.

 

[BigJCy]

Ol' Stewie pumping the Pac 10 tires once again:

 

[heitclone]

Ol' Stewie pumping the Pac 10 tires once again:

Without pac 12 football, WHAT WILL PEOPLE WATCH AT 1030pm ON THE EAST COAST???!!!!!!!!!

 

[CycloneDaddy]

Ol' Stewie pumping the Pac 10 tires once again:

Im calling BS on the TV #s but Im not paying The Athletic to see what math he did to get there.

 

[Rods79]

Im calling BS on the TV #s but Im not paying The Athletic to see what math he did to get there.

That's where I'm at. Curious to know what obscure metric he used to put the finger on the scale for the PAC in this one, but not paying that outlet anything. I'm guessing he had a 2x brand multiplier in there somewhere.

 

[BigJCy]

Here are the numbers he came up with.

"Below is a chart of the remaining Pac-12 and Big 12 schools’ average TV ratings, from 2015-19 and 2021. (Games against Oklahoma/Texas and USC/UCLA are excluded.)"

Oregon	1.96 million
Stanford	1.83 million
Washington	1.73 million
Washington State	1.59 million
Colorado	1.49 million
Utah	1.44 million
Oklahoma State	1.28 million
California	1.27 million
TCU	1.22 million
Arizona State	1.19 million
West Virginia	1.10 million
Baylor	1.07 million
Iowa State	1.04 million
Texas Tech	866,000
Arizona	815,000
Kansas State	748,000
Oregon State	723,000
Kansas	409,000

 

[Statefan10]

Here are the numbers he came up with.

"Below is a chart of the remaining Pac-12 and Big 12 schools’ average TV ratings, from 2015-19 and 2021. (Games against Oklahoma/Texas and USC/UCLA are excluded.)"

Oregon	1.96 million
Stanford	1.83 million
Washington	1.73 million
Washington State	1.59 million
Colorado	1.49 million
Utah	1.44 million
Oklahoma State	1.28 million
California	1.27 million
TCU	1.22 million
Arizona State	1.19 million
West Virginia	1.10 million
Baylor	1.07 million
Iowa State	1.04 million
Texas Tech	866,000
Arizona	815,000
Kansas State	748,000
Oregon State	723,000
Kansas	409,000

I’m sorry but taking away the prime time games Iowa state played against OU and Texas is dumb. And also taking away 2020 is dumb. I understand attendance would be unfair to look at but that just means more people would watch on TV I’d assume.

 

[WhoISthis]

I have a hard time believing ESPN is the all powerful entity with unlimited pockets that some people describe.

Since their purchasing parts of the Big12 & Pac12 media rights (at much lower investment) nearly a decade ago.

1. They have made long term investments in the ACCN.
2. They purchased exclusive rights to the SEC.
3. Plus, they are going to have to up their SEC deal to pay OU/UT.
4. In 2026 the CFB playoff will be 8 or 12 teams. Even if the package is divided, that could be a $1B investment.

I would be surprised if Disney wants to be so invested in CFB. Plus there are potential players like Amazon & Apple that could buy Disney without blinking. Plus there are entities like Netflix, CBS & NBC that could want a slice of live sports. Also Fox might want CFB programming outside the Big10 although they might have an eye on the CFB Playoff).

Do you think they are driving consolidation just to pass out more money? These moves make ESPN more in isolation, and then even more if they get the macro setup they want.

They don't really have a choice imo, and not just because there are no alternatives.

1.) they need to protect that investment. That does not involve getting caught in a situation in which schools force their way out, and there is no 3rd conference to repurpose the ACCN into. A Big 18 plus 6 ACC leftovers with the ACCN rebranded makes more for ESPN than it does now, and way more than a rump ACC. They would potentially only lose the south carolina market, but add Texas, KC, Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake, Seattle, etc

2.) SEC is their prime asset. They'll continue to add championship level brands to that conference. Add Clemson, FSU, and Miami, and they'd have nearly every title in the last 20 years.

3.) This is not a donation. Adding OU and UT to SEC makes ESPN more money.

ESPN and FOX are spending big on consolidation in to P2 to gain macro advantages over any new entrant. Which is why those two networks will continue to move brands into P2. If Apple or Amazon want to buy what is left, ESPN and FOX have control over the top 48 or so, and could start their own. This realignment/consolidation are the networks protecting their turf on some of the last programming that makes money.

BUT, ESPN can control that much better by funding the Big 18 than they can funding both PAC and ACC.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

At this point I am rooting for some Pac-12 leftovers to join us just to watch Stewie’s tiny little head explode