This mentality is very pervasive in the PAC. There is the thought that California has been the financial juggernaut of states for so long that leaving that home base would be unthinkable. But Larry Scott found out that economic engine did nothing for the league, and I'm sure the new commissioner will see it as well before too long.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Playing someone vs being affiliated in a conference with them is completely different. Many of these things have been very publicly well known. Also some of these things have become more of an issue in the years since Arizona joined. Utah barely was added, but Utah is NOT BYU, and NOT Boise or SMU or Baylor.
I am not saying in the grands scheme when push comes to shove if they HAVE to join vs them making the decision to add someone they might reluctantly fall in line. But their adversity to certain schools is not just imagined.
Yeah, I heard this as well.
In fact, I think they were getting ready to axe a bunch of non-revenue type sports due to the financials.
It's basically at the point with Kliavkoff where he's just an old man screaming at random kids (real or imagined) to get off his lawn.
He has to know on some level the PAC is screwed.
Where can I find more info on this? I remember they were upside down. Thank you
I don't think the Big 12 is in as advantageous of a position as some here seem to think, but the Pac 12 commissioner melting down like Chernobyl is certainly helping.
My biggest fear at this point is the SEC and Big 10 gobbling up the remaining major brands (FSU, Miami, Clemson, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, etc.) and simply taking their ball and going home by creating their own playoff and crowning a "national champion" without the schools outside of those two leagues ever getting a shot. It would be the end of "college football," but the motivation is there if you look at TV projections based on an eight or twelve team playoff.
My biggest fear at this point is the SEC and Big 10 gobbling up the remaining major brands (FSU, Miami, Clemson, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, etc.) and simply taking their ball and going home by creating their own playoff and crowning a "national champion" without the schools outside of those two leagues ever getting a shot. It would be the end of "college football," but the motivation is there if you look at TV projections based on an eight or twelve team playoff.
they will also create their own ruling body of which the Big 12 will not be included.
So wait. The Big10 TV contract ends June 30, 2023. And they still haven't announced their new deal. They originally were promising news of a new agreement around Memorial Day, but we now know why that was delayed- USC, UCLA and potentially ND. But if the Big10 can't push to get a deal done more than 13 months before it expires, why would it be necessary for the Pac12 to get a deal done 20+ months early?
No Pac12 deal will be in offering until the Pac12 knows who its teams will be. The Pac12 won't know that until the Big10 is done. Maybe the 4 corners schools figure its not worth the wait and explore the Big12. But how can we be certain that some of those schools don't feel they have a Big10 opportunity? If DMA matters like it did for Rutgers and Maryland, then ASU, Utah and Colorado may all feel they have Big10 potential. Especially if ND is added.
Additionally, if the Big12 media contract with ESPN & Fox is similar to Pac12 then both those media partners have exclusive rights for something like 30 days from July 1, 2023. Obviously, both those parties could indicate before that that they have no intent on bidding on Big12 media rights.
IMO the Big12/Pac12 can get a stronger deal together. Albeit that doesn't necessarily mean it includes all 22 current teams. The TV folks will decide how much they want to invest and the most valuable schools. The year difference in Big12/Pac12 TV rights expiration is a complication, but if Fox & ESPN don't want to be players in either conference go forward- maybe the Big12 contract could end a year earlier. It might make sense for all parties if new Big12/Pac12 deal is richer than Big12's current deal for the 2024/2025 FY.
I agree, the ACC isn't raiding anyone as things stand right now. My main concern is which PAC schools could add to the Big XII now and in the future.
Just looking at the thoughts of a full Big PAC merger. Projections for the next Big XII deal put them in the low $50m range once (if) the CFP expands starting in 2026. A full Big/PAC merger would likely knock about $10m off that range. That's significant, and likely why talks ended so quickly - the numbers were so far off it didn't warrant further discussion. It also indicates that a whole lot of PAC schools aren't worth Big XII money - more than just Cal, OR St and WA St. I have my doubts about each of the corner schools, to be honest.
Any additions from the PAC need to keep the Big XII distribution on par with current projections. If the Big XII took six - OR, WA plus the corner schools - and distribution projections remained the same, I'd be a little nervous because I think those two will eventually end up in the P2. The math for in additions besides OR and WA should keep the distributions flat, an a minimum, with those two increasing it, as they very well might not be long-term members.
Big 12 will accept the PAC 12 teams they want that apply for membership. Big 12 gets to make the decision. You seem to think the PAC 12 has some power over the Big 12. They do not. And the PAC 12 Coalition is about to break. They are doomed.
I don't think the SEC & Big10 can go their own way. Too many political ego's would get involved and we would suddenly go from NCAA oversight, to P5 Conference oversight to Federal Government oversight.
The SEC & Big10 are smart enough to keep a path for Big12, Pac12 & ACC schools to earn spots in CFB Playoff. Even if that path is G5 narrow.
Think this is why we should hope ND remains independent , and the ACC survives, since it appears the PAC will not. The BIG and SEC could make peace for 5 minutes with 50M per school sitting on the table so no one but they have the opportunity to fetch it and then argue later who gets the best opportunity for fetching. Need other players to block that move.
I think some of what people are going by is the PAC enacted a 30 day exclusive window with ESPN and Fox in July. In which Fox told them they were not interested, and ESPN gave low ball and long term GoR terms, which are unfavorable offers.
In a few days that window is set to expire and it is believed that the PAC is taking their rights to the open market. This may be where the 30 day term comes from, but also it is now been said that the B1G deal will be announced by Labor Day.
These 2 things mean. The PAC should start getting a good idea what their rights are worth on the open market in the next few weeks after the 30 day exclusive window closes. And once the B1G deal is locked up and announced they should know what happens there, and know if that then opens Fox up to negotiating.
I think the PAC tried to accelerate their deal because of the loss of USCLA which is why their timeline is earlier than the B1Gs. Whether they get a deal any earlier or even exist in a year is yet to be seen.
I think the TV Networks are making the decision. The Pac12 & Big12 don't print money AND neither has a long-term TV deal to offer the other conference.
Its not imagined, it's just not of primary importance when hundreds of millions of dollars or prestige are at stake.
I'm struck by how San Diego State and Oregon are basically in the same situation. They can accept the sure thing offer they know will be coming soon (Pac offer San Diego State and Big 12 offer for Oregon) for a significant increase in payout and a secure home, or they can try to hold out for a much bigger offer that may or may not ever come (Big 12 offer for San Diego State and Big 10 offer for Oregon). Which would you do?
What is Oregon's risk? They would be accepted by Big 12 whenever they give up on the BIG dream imo.
To get Oregon, we need to first remove the PAC- which is why all 4 corners are "takes" now, but may not be the BIG first takes more PAC schools.
As long as there is a PAC10, Oregon has no reason to stop waiting on BIG and go to Big 12. The question is whether the 4 corners see themselves as fodder, and are willing to accommodate Oregon at their own risk of being left out later.
SDSU will be lucky if the PAC gives them 1/2 share. Which is more than they currently get, but the Big 12 should be making it seem possible that SDSU could have more in the Big 12.
Oregon is playing for time, allowing the Big 10 to decide if they want them or not, they know that they have a fall back in the B12. San Diego does not have that fall back position, they will take the P12 offer, and hope the conference stays together if it is offered.
No way should the B12, even thinking about elevating another G5 school like San Diego St. into the league, they would bring nothing to the league and would be behind all the other P12 schools to take except for Oregon St and Washington St.
