Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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PAC is working on a deal that’s reported as “productive.” If the big 12 can’t add pac schools what a swing and miss as we do not have that blue blood school for TV negotiations. We need name brand schools.
I don’t think there’s any real risk of Oregon being outside the #3 conference. They’re not a slam dunk P2 program (otherwise they’d be set to join the Big 10 in 2024), they’d be one of the flagship schools in P#3.
I've recently driven around a lot of Pac stadiums and campuses on various camping/backpacking trips. I went through Eugene for first time a few weeks ago. Even with all Knight's money it looks and feels less big time than Washington does. I wanted to see Ore St but didn't have time.
I mean it's nice, but it's nothing jaw dropping.
Utah and BYU around the stadium seem every bit as big time, if not bigger. All 3 Utah stadiums were actually bigger and cooler looking to drive around than I thought they'd be. They will be fun road trips for ISU fans who love the outdoors whether it's just BYU or it's BYU/Utah.
Yeah, I agree. I think anything outside the P2 would be viewed by Phil as a massive loss and hit to his brand.
Why would big ten turn down even half of whatever he offers to pump up Pac?
No amount of program money is going to make west coast people watch football as much as midwesterners and southerners.
If Cal gets into b10 as some kind of fit they still won’t have any fans, their AD just won’t have financial issues.
I don't think FSU to the SEC is a slam dunk. UF views FSU the same way UI views us and the SEC is currently in Florida and NOT in North Carolina or Virginia...who are coincidentally the most B1Gish schools in the ACC. Clemson's recent success will really help them since SCar must be considered a bust as an add for the SEC. If the B1G took UNC and UVa I could see the SEC taking NCSt, VPI, Clemson, and GT (or Miami if they were going to take another Florida school).
Absolutely, my sister went there for grad school and while it's a very nice university with very nice facilities, it's no more impressive than ISU, EXCEPT for the track facility which is amazballs. People forget that for a LOOOONG time the only special thing about Oregon football was that Dan Fouts played ball there. UO goes as Phil Knight goes. His money might live in perpetuity but he won't.
Hubris is what put the PAC in their current up sh*t creek situation. It seems some of the PAC teams just refuse to learn that lesson.
It’s only a hit to the ego if he’s pretending like the PAC wasn’t the 4th or 5th best conference for the past couple of decades. Moving up to #3 would be an upgrade for them everywhere but in their heads.
I agree. I just think he thinks UO is extra and on the level of USC.
OK, I thought you were talking the $30-$40M in PAC vs. $100M in B1G spread which would be $50-$60M per team.
The 100 MM is also an estimate of what they think the big ten will make after they estimate what the CFP will pay out. There are still several variables to this.
It is also the amount towards the End of the contract that they will gradually increase to, not what they get to in the first year.
People forget that it has been reported that they will make virtually the same money as they currently are making, for the first 2 years of the new contract, then will increase per year of the rest of the contract, gradually, to near 100M, by the end of the contract.
No one knows what the Big 12 future contract will be, nothing says we will be that far behind. We may stay near 40M to start and gradually increase to around 75-80M by the end of the contract. That would still put us in the same range as we are now with respect. We are about 15M behind now per year, in 7-10 years if we are only 20-25M behind we are still in the ballpark. And still proportional to what we are now.
I would call that a win. The worst thing that could happen is getting stuck in something like the ACC has that has very little increases per year and goes for almost twice as long.
How do you figure the next Big 12 media deal resulting in nearly twice the $$$ per school payout without OU or UT and with 12 teams splitting the pie instead of 10?
I will be shocked if the B12 gets to 75 to 80 million by the end of the contract. More likely is ending up with 55 to 60 million. Conference will have 12 schools to reimburse as opposed to the 10 we have now.
As long at the B10 and SEC cannot use their new found wealth for NIL, or enlarge their scholarships to 100 or so, the money will have little effect on the other conferences. Most of that money will end up going to the nonrevenue sports, as most of these teams have spent the past decade building up their facilities, not many have to redo their stadiums or weightroom/locker rooms.
The point is we have no Idea, and a lot also depends on what happens between now and contract time, with realignment.
But people act like the B1G is getting 100M next year. And that is not the case, they are getting CLOSE to 100M in the final year of their contract. With all things included.
I dont think the Big 12 will gain anything up front, but estimates are saying our per school pay will be about 40M+/- per school with OUT, with the 4 schools we added last year.
I think no matter what, the Big 12 will lose ground to the B1G. I just think there are scenarios where it wont be as much as some think. (right now the Big 12 pays about 12M less, I think by 2030, it will be about double that at 20-25, Not 50M) I also think if you are adding $xM for the playoff expansion to the B1G to get to 100M, (which is why there is a jump in 2 years) You will also have that same jump in the Big 12. Then you will have a similar relative increase so if there is a 15M increase for the playoff expansion, then take the 40M add that 15M across the board, takes you to 55M in 2026, then you increase by 5M+/- per year for 5 more years. That takes you to 80M+/-, in 2031.
I don't think that is out of the realm of possibility. Im not saying it is a sure thing but I think it is more probable than the Big 12 is still only making 55M in 2031, including playoff money. That would be a disaster, and a horrible contract.
I personally think the big 12 will be closer to 75M in 2030-31 than 55M per, including all pay.
So you think we will get the bump in pay for the expected playoff expansion in 25-26 and no other increase in pay for the next decade/life of the contract?
I will also add this graphic. Which is from after OUT and the Adds, but before USCLA.
I question it heavily. Because as you see EVERY conference gets a GIANT Bump in 2026, except the Big 12. Because as navigate says they expect an expansion to 8 team playoff then.
Why does this have every conference getting a 10-20M bump for the playoff expansion, but not the Big 12. Why is there so much bias against the Big 12. They admit that it is worth basically the same it is now moving forward, but that it wont increase like every other conference....Why? As we have seen the Pac is all but dead. The ACC contract is pathetic. We are substantially ahead of them, but for some reason they believe they will get a 10M bump from the playoff in 2026 that the Big 12 wont.
My point is By then the Big 12 may be the last of those 3 standing, or maybe not. But there is no reason to believe that all these conferences will receive a similar bump for any playoff expansion, unless the P2 completely cut them out. So if you give the Big 12 even the 10M increase they show for the Pac and ACC (not the 15-20M they show for the B1G and SEC) that would put the Big 12 at 55M in 2026. I think with out any other realignment at minimum that would put us at 60-65M by 2030. But Im still optimistic for 70-80M around 2031ish.
I question it heavily. Because as you see EVERY conference gets a GIANT Bump in 2026, except the Big 12. Because as navigate says they expect an expansion to 8 team playoff then.
Why does this have every conference getting a 10-20M bump for the playoff expansion, but not the Big 12. Why is there so much bias against the Big 12. They admit that it is worth basically the same it is now moving forward, but that it wont increase like every other conference....Why? As we have seen the Pac is all but dead. The ACC contract is pathetic. We are substantially ahead of them, but for some reason they believe they will get a 10M bump from the playoff in 2026 that the Big 12 wont.
My point is By then the Big 12 may be the last of those 3 standing, or maybe not. But there is no reason to believe that all these conferences will receive a similar bump for any playoff expansion, unless the P2 completely cut them out. So if you give the Big 12 even the 10M increase they show for the Pac and ACC (not the 15-20M they show for the B1G and SEC) that would put the Big 12 at 55M in 2026. I think with out any other realignment at minimum that would put us at 60-65M by 2030. But Im still optimistic for 70-80M around 2031ish.
