Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Thinker]

What if the PAC wants Houston, OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU? to pair with Arizona and CU? this stuff is crazy

 

[Thinker]

I think ISU is valuable, but they are in a weird spot in the midwest. They will be surrounded by Big 10 and SEC. KSU and Kansas could also get left out.

 

[CascadeClone]

Now it the time to destroy the Pac 12, offer CU and UU today, do it back channel and once they ask to join, take them, make the Pac 12 unstable, forcing the name brand schools to decide.

Agree. Right now is maximum sphincter tightness for everyone in the Pac12 except Wash and Oregon.

Just game theory the hell out of them:
"Hey Az, ASU, UU, CU, Cal, and Stanford... you want to join now? Or do you want to join later with no negotiation leverage after UDub and UNike dump your asses? BTW we are only taking 4, so first come first serve."

 

[Kinch]

The Pac 12's biggest mistake was in 2010 when they didn't take Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when the opportunity was there. Had they done so, the Power 2 would have been the Pac 12 and Big 10 and the SEC would have been left in third place.

 

[BryceC]

SIAP last night but this guy always seems to be plugged in to sports media and realignment talk, so his thoughts (which go against the conventional wisdom on this board) are worth sharing. Click through to read the thread.

Again, the dude is completely ignoring Grant of Rights issues.

 

[iahawks]

And ND laughed and said, we can join whenever we want to.

Pretty much how it will go down.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think ISU is valuable, but they are in a weird spot in the midwest. They will be surrounded by Big 10 and SEC. KSU and Kansas could also get left out.

Which teams do you think will make the cut when the elites from the SEC and B1G split off from the rest of their conferences to form the SuperLeague in 2028?

 

[Hoggins]

I think they are MWC schools.

In 2019/20 Oregon State & Washington State's AD revenue was $20M lower than the 10th team in the Pac12.

If you added those 2 schools to the Big12 as part of a Big12/Pac12 merger, they would be the 2 lowest schools from an AD revenue standpoint. Lower than UCF, Cincy or Houston.

Look at WSU's attendance. Around 33k in FB and 2.3k in MBB. We'd be better off with BSU & SDSU.

Look at Oregon State stadium situation too. They just decreased their stadium from 43k to 26K! WSU is 32K too.

I love WSU & OSU's cultural fit, but the Big 12 should not add them.

 

[Kinch]

Texas and OU have to be licking at the chops of the Big 12 still collapsing and getting out of their exit fees.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Again, the dude is completely ignoring Grant of Rights issues.

What’s the GOR issue? Couldn’t a B12 team leave for the Pac-16 in 2025? The Pac would have a year as a 10 school league in 2024.

 

[brett108]

Assuming they take rest of what they want on the west coast. I'd add UNC/ND and stop carving up the pie knowing the rest adds little or is SEC bound. Maybe they feel they need to be represented in mountain zone and get CU/Utah but I mean is it really necessary?

Nope. According to 2019 data only 6.7% of the US lives in the mountain time zone. I knew it would be the lowest but didn’t expect it to be that low.

 

[BryceC]

What’s the GOR issue? Couldn’t a B12 team leave for the Pac-16 in 2025? The Pac would have a year as a 10 school league in 2024.

The problem is that they have to negotiate their TV rights literally like right now. The Big 10 was literally weeks away from having their 2024 contract done before this went down. They said it'll be done by labor day now.

The PAC is going to have to negotiate those contracts right now, with networks who have no idea who is or is not going to be in their conference. And also negotiate those contracts knowing that they'll have 2 years (it's actually 2026) without those teams. It's just an extremely tough spot they are put in now.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The Pac 12's biggest mistake was in 2010 when they didn't take Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when the opportunity was there. Had they done so, the Power 2 would have been the Pac 12 and Big 10 and the SEC would have been left in third place.

The rumor at the time was that the Pac 12 commish wanted to take KU instead of OSU and the OU ad then announced to everyone that where they went, OSU would be going to.

I tend to think that UT had little to no thought of going to the P12, what they wanted was the ability to form the LHN, originally it was 6 teams going, CU and aTm where also in the deal, but aTm wanted to get away from UT and join the SEC, while CU jumped at the offer, and joined. For some reason they thought the CU program was better suited to the western schools than the B12 schools that had been their home for decades.

 

[jakemcilroy]

I know the popular opinion is that Big XII will poach the PAC 12 but just do a comparison of the schools in each conference. There is no good way to compare schools one to one, but I took a super simple approach.
KU - Washington
Oklahoma State - Oregon
Baylor - Stanford
Iowa State - Cal
Texas Tech - Arizona
TCU - ASU
Kansas State - CU
West Virginia - Utah

UCF - Oregon State
Houston - Washington State
BYU
Cincy

Which school on the left would you take vs the one on the right if you were another conference. I just don't feel great that the PAC 12 won't hurt the Big XII if Oregon and Washington decide to stay. But my initial thought is that conference has struggled with fan support and it's time zones keep the rest of the country uninterested, so that gives us an edge.

But if the ACC offered WV and UCF or Cincy would they stay here?

All this said we are a strong top to bottom, although historically we have no flagships left. maybe that's the strength of our conference. No more OU/T or USC/UCLA to blow it up.

The current Big 12 has 4 things better than the future Pac 12.
1) Geography
2) Fans that care about football
3) Basketball prestige
4) A tad more stability because this happened to the Big 12 earlier.

None of those 4 things is a huge deal on it's own. Together, they might. Maybe.

 

[keepngoal]

The Pac 12's biggest mistake was in 2010 when they didn't take Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when the opportunity was there. Had they done so, the Power 2 would have been the Pac 12 and Big 10 and the SEC would have been left in third place.

And then TXOU go to the SEC, and USCUCLA go to the BIG. Mostly the same boat.

 

[brett108]

What if the PAC wants Houston, OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU? to pair with Arizona and CU? this stuff is crazy

The only people that value tons of Texas schools in the same conference are Texas lawmakers. The only reason the SEC has two is because they are two of the highest program in the nation. You aren’t putting TCU in any conference if you have a strong Texas school already there

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The problem is that they have to negotiate their TV rights literally like right now. The Big 10 was literally weeks away from having their 2024 contract done before this went down. They said it'll be done by labor day now.

The PAC is going to have to negotiate those contracts right now, with networks who have no idea who is or is not going to be in their conference. And also negotiate those contracts knowing that they'll have 2 years (it's actually 2026) without those teams. It's just an extremely tough spot they are put in now.

That’s not a GOR issue though. And that can get resolved fairly quickly if they make those invites. They have many months to negotiate a TV deal. I doubt it will include a GOR now if the league has Oregon and Washington especially. They’ll want flexibility.

 

[Kinch]

And then TXOU go to the SEC, and USCUCLA go to the BIG. Mostly the same boat.

But if the GOR were for 20 years, we would still be 10 years from it.

 

[Clones123]

Look at Oregon State stadium situation too. They just decreased their stadium from 43k to 26K! WSU is 32K too.

I love WSU & OSU's cultural fit, but the Big 12 should not add them.

In Oregon State's defense, the size reduction is only temporary.

Inside OSU Athletics: History, Achievements & More

Get the latest on Oregon State Beavers' athletic achievements in NCAA sports. Explore games, stats, and more!

www.completingreserstadium.com

 

[BCClone]

In Oregon State's defense, the size reduction is only temporary.

Inside OSU Athletics: History, Achievements & More

Get the latest on Oregon State Beavers' athletic achievements in NCAA sports. Explore games, stats, and more!

www.completingreserstadium.com

I tell my wife that too.