Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

What are you arguing? I never said any of that. You said Oregon would decline without his money and I just stated his money isn't going away.

He is probably arguing more my earlier Idea that Knight could pad a deal to the Big 10 from Nike to buy Oregons way in.

Its not something I see as likely, just an out of the box kind of idea that I was seeing what others thoughts were on it. Also trying to get more information on how those athletic gear/equip deals worked.

I would say its a very low probability for that type of thing to happen. And would only really work if Oregon was really close to being able to get in, just needed a slight bump to push over the edge.

I am not sure that Any of the schools left in the Pac outside Stanford as a partner to ND are even remotely on the B1Gs immediate radar. Not saying never. But it would take at least ND coming and then they deciding they need a couple more for balance. Otherwise it will be the next round when the ACC falls.

This round the B1G is done unless ND comes. If ND comes it breaks open more chaos.

Yet I think there still is about a 75%+ chance the Big 12 gets the 4 corners this round. Then a 50% chance Wash and Oreg come too.

 

[Stormin]

What are you arguing? I never said any of that. You said Oregon would decline without his money and I just stated his money isn't going away.

You know the details of Phil Knight’s Will and financial provisions at death? Post them. You have no idea what provisions Phil Knight has made for Oregon. Might not be as lucrative as you think. And it sure as hell isn’t going to buy an entrance to the Big Ten. Or they would be in. Knight has not been secret about his desire to be P2.

 

[CloniesForLife]

You know the details of Phil Knight’s Will and financial provisions at death? Post them. You have no idea what provisions Phil Knight has made for Oregon. Might not be as lucrative as you think. And it sure as hell isn’t going to buy an entrance to the Big Ten. Or they would be in. Knight has not been secret about his desire to be P2.

This will be my last response on this in this thread because you keep arguing with me about things I haven't said. I never once said Knight can buy Oregon's way into the Big 10. All I simply said is that Oregon will continue to get Phil Knight money after he is dead regardless of the conference they are in. Of course I don't have his will but I find it highly unlikely that a guy with Knight's business acumen would put all this time, effort, and money into building up Oregon to just let it all go away once he's dead. Building a legacy is what all these rich dudes want since they have more money than they know what to do with.

 

[Stormin]

This will be my last response on this in this thread because you keep arguing with me about things I haven't said. I never once said Knight can buy Oregon's way into the Big 10. All I simply said is that Oregon will continue to get Phil Knight money after he is dead regardless of the conference they are in. Of course I don't have his will but I find it highly unlikely that a guy with Knight's business acumen would put all this time, effort, and money into building up Oregon to just let it all go away once he's dead. Building a legacy is what all these rich dudes want since they have more money than they know what to do with.

Knight’s money will have no influence as to where Oregon ends up IMO. Or else they would already be there.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Knight’s money will have no influence as to where Oregon ends up IMO. Or else they would already be there.

I think it could make Oregon independent rather than join the Big 12 if it comes to that. We get the corner schools plus Washington and maybe Stanford; Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State join the Mountain West.

Knight could fund Oregon in a delusion that it would become a Notre Dame of the west, and even if their TV deal wasn't up to par with the Big 12 (let alone the B1G), Knight's money would pay for coaches etc.

 

[drmwevr08]

I think it could make Oregon independent rather than join the Big 12 if it comes to that. We get the corner schools plus Washington and maybe Stanford; Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State join the Mountain West.

Knight could fund Oregon in a delusion that it would become a Notre Dame of the west, and even if their TV deal wasn't up to par with the Big 12 (let alone the B1G), Knight's money would pay for coaches etc.

With Nike cooperation, this is probably closer to viable than it seems.
I don't find it likely, but its not ridiculous.

 

[Stormin]

I think it could make Oregon independent rather than join the Big 12 if it comes to that. We get the corner schools plus Washington and maybe Stanford; Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State join the Mountain West.

Knight could fund Oregon in a delusion that it would become a Notre Dame of the west, and even if their TV deal wasn't up to par with the Big 12 (let alone the B1G), Knight's money would pay for coaches etc.

Stanford can stay with Cal. Oregon has ego problems. Feel bad for OSU and WSU but they are out. Others would be wise to grab the Big 12 Life Preserver. Only real option.

 

[aeroclone]

I think it could make Oregon independent rather than join the Big 12 if it comes to that. We get the corner schools plus Washington and maybe Stanford; Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State join the Mountain West.

Knight could fund Oregon in a delusion that it would become a Notre Dame of the west, and even if their TV deal wasn't up to par with the Big 12 (let alone the B1G), Knight's money would pay for coaches etc.

Notre Dame football is a total anomaly. No current P5 member is going to go independent. No network it itching to pay Oregon $30-40M to air 6 or 7 of their football games. Scheduling is going to suck as well, as I suspect that as these conferences grow they will push to play more conference games. As an indy your bowl and playoff access will suck. It just doesn't make sense. Notre Dame has a brand as big as they come and is essentially grandfathered in. For everyone else this path is a no go.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Notre Dame football is a total anomaly. No current P5 member is going to go independent. No network it itching to pay Oregon $30-40M to air 6 or 7 of their football games. Scheduling is going to suck as well, as I suspect that as these conferences grow they will push to play more conference games. As an indy your bowl and playoff access will suck. It just doesn't make sense. Notre Dame has a brand as big as they come and is essentially grandfathered in. For everyone else this path is a no go.

I think it would be a bad move, and yet I can still see it as a real possibility.

Oregon would still be able to schedule quality OOC games. Their status in the Pac-12 didn't help them attract those before. As far as money goes, they could get somebody to broadcast their games and Knight could bankroll them to make it up. This is all based on the premise that he wants to do whatever it takes to keep Oregon out of the Big 12, which might be false but also might be true.

One thing that could be interesting if this happened: Oregon and Notre Dame could schedule a regular season game for conference championship weekend.

 

[isucy86]

Knight’s money will have no influence as to where Oregon ends up IMO. Or else they would already be there.

IMO the Big10 is waiting on further expansion until they figure out where ND lands.

If ND ends up in the Big10, that gives the Big10 the ability to take schools that aren't accretive to the Big10's/school payout. Aka ND would subsidize schools like Oregon, Stanford, etc. if the TV networks value them below the Big10/school break even.

Oregon, Stanford, etc. could make themselves attractive to the Big10 to keep an even # teams if ND joins. If they pass all the other approvals if Oregon or Stanford would take a 50% share for the first media rights deal (10 years), the Big10 might be more apt to listen.

As we have learned up to this point, money talks.

 

[Gonzo]

IMO the Big10 is waiting on further expansion until they figure out where ND lands.

If ND ends up in the Big10, that gives the Big10 the ability to take schools that aren't accretive to the Big10's/school payout. Aka ND would subsidize schools like Oregon, Stanford, etc. if the TV networks value them below the Big10/school break even.

Oregon, Stanford, etc. could make themselves attractive to the Big10 to keep an even # teams if ND joins. If they pass all the other approvals if Oregon or Stanford would take a 50% share for the first media rights deal (10 years), the Big10 might be more apt to listen.

As we have learned up to this point, money talks.

Agree, I think if ND joined then the B1G would reach out to Stanford to preserve that longtime rivalry as a conference game.

 

[WhoISthis]

Knight’s money will have no influence as to where Oregon ends up IMO. Or else they would already be there.

I can agree to that, but Knight's money can continue to have Oregon at a high level well after him.

This notion that as soon as he is gone Oregon is going to fall back isn't true imo. Not only because of his money can easily still fun it, but because Oregon has built its brand enough that it is no longer all Knight.

 

[2speedy1]

Notre Dame football is a total anomaly. No current P5 member is going to go independent. No network it itching to pay Oregon $30-40M to air 6 or 7 of their football games. Scheduling is going to suck as well, as I suspect that as these conferences grow they will push to play more conference games. As an indy your bowl and playoff access will suck. It just doesn't make sense. Notre Dame has a brand as big as they come and is essentially grandfathered in. For everyone else this path is a no go.

The only schools I could see going this way is Stanford and Cal. And only if they decide to basically deemphasize Football. Because I dont think they would have the access to as many top games nor playoff or bowls like ND does at this point, among other issues, including the big one, Money.

Both are Academic powers in which their Academics dwarf their Athletics.

They could put their other sports in one of the several western conferences and accept that they will not make a huge amount in Football. And become travel partners in sort as well.

This would be an even better avenue "IF" ND stays independent and they are able to work a deal with ND for scheduling, and possibly NBC for Media.

This again would not be an easy route and I can not say it would work, but if some of a few of these independent schools got together and at least decided to team up for some scheduling, and then were able to get a media partner to at least give them close to what they were getting with the PAC up to this point, they might just be happy, at least for a while.

Because of Stanford and Cals position on a lot of things this would at least put them in control of their destiny, how stubborn they are when it really comes down to things I guess we will see.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Pretty clear Oregon perceives the Cyclones as a threat. They’re going straight at Iowa State’s strength is their PR campaign.

#Hooray!

 

[2speedy1]

Agree, I think if ND joined then the B1G would reach out to Stanford to preserve that longtime rivalry as a conference game.

My guess is that is one of their selling points right now, and is what USC is working on as well.

ND would get all its current and past historical rivalries back in the Big 10, keep USC, Bring in Stanford.

Then be able to schedule the remainder out of conference. Navy, Army, Pitt, BC, Miami. Not sure which you consider the top ones that would be noncon at that point. But could schedule 2 or 3 of those each year on a rotation etc.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Agree, I think if ND joined then the B1G would reach out to Stanford to preserve that longtime rivalry as a conference game.

I think Stanford and Cal are more coveted than Oregon by the B1G and I think would be additions either way Notre Dame goes (I think they'll stay independent) The B1G10 channel is still huge for their bottom line. Households are charged like $0.10 if there aren't any "local" teams. If they add Stanford, suddenly they now get like $1.25 per home in that area, the #6 Media Market (MM). That's big money.

Washington is the anomaly here to me. They have great academics, are like 4th or 5th in grant money out of all institutions and are the #12 MM in the US. Actually now that I'm looking at that, I think they'll be B1G as well.

Oregon is in Eugene, #113 MM. For reference, DSM, Ames is #68. (IF you count Portland, they're #21 MM but these are listed as separate media markets, with Corvalis and Oregon State in the middle of the 110 mile drive. I just don't see it from the B1G's perspective.

Here's the reference for the Media Markets:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_television_stations_in_North_America_by_media_market

 

[cyclones500]

My guess is that is one of their selling points right now, and is what USC is working on as well.

ND would get all its current and past historical rivalries back in the Big 10, keep USC, Bring in Stanford.

Then be able to schedule the remainder out of conference. Navy, Army, Pitt, BC, Miami. Not sure which you consider the top ones that would be noncon at that point. But could schedule 2 or 3 of those each year on a rotation etc.

Given choice among those, ND likely would keep Navy every year -- continuous since 1927 (with exception of '20 due to pandemic)

 

[CascadeClone]

The only schools I could see going this way is Stanford and Cal. And only if they decide to basically deemphasize Football. Because I dont think they would have the access to as many top games nor playoff or bowls like ND does at this point, among other issues, including the big one, Money.

Both are Academic powers in which their Academics dwarf their Athletics.

They could put their other sports in one of the several western conferences and accept that they will not make a huge amount in Football. And become travel partners in sort as well.

This would be an even better avenue "IF" ND stays independent and they are able to work a deal with ND for scheduling, and possibly NBC for Media.

This again would not be an easy route and I can not say it would work, but if some of a few of these independent schools got together and at least decided to team up for some scheduling, and then were able to get a media partner to at least give them close to what they were getting with the PAC up to this point, they might just be happy, at least for a while.

Because of Stanford and Cals position on a lot of things this would at least put them in control of their destiny, how stubborn they are when it really comes down to things I guess we will see.

So basically, become Rice.

They might. Honestly these two might actually care more about academics than football.

 

[BCClone]

Given choice among those, ND likely would keep Navy every year -- continuous since 1927 (with exception of '20 due to pandemic)

Does NBC have all of NDs games? Or just the home games? If they have only the home games. Oregon could go to NBC and offer to fill the ND away game slots. I think Oregon will try to stay PAC if they don’t get an P2 invite. They have enough subsidies and by beating up on the other teams left, whoever they invite, they may believe they have a route to the playoffs.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think Stanford and Cal are more coveted than Oregon by the B1G and I think would be additions either way Notre Dame goes (I think they'll stay independent) The B1G10 channel is still huge for their bottom line. Households are charged like $0.10 if there aren't any "local" teams. If they add Stanford, suddenly they now get like $1.25 per home in that area, the #6 Media Market (MM). That's big money.

Washington is the anomaly here to me. They have great academics, are like 4th or 5th in grant money out of all institutions and are the #12 MM in the US. Actually now that I'm looking at that, I think they'll be B1G as well.

Oregon is in Eugene, #113 MM. For reference, DSM, Ames is #68. (IF you count Portland, they're #21 MM but these are listed as separate media markets, with Corvalis and Oregon State in the middle of the 110 mile drive. I just don't see it from the B1G's perspective.

Here's the reference for the Media Markets:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_television_stations_in_North_America_by_media_market

I almost agree. I think it would be Stanford & Wash first, and UO and Cal later. That B1G network makes their calculations different than most everyone else's.