Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

AuH2O

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hmm, no I disagree somewhat. You have to get to a baseline in facilities, resources and program support to compete at this level. Once you have reached that baseline, then the coaching matters. But our administration purged football and it had a longterm effect. I don't think a good coach would have made any difference during our nuclear winter years. Jim Walden was only telling the truth when he criticized the admin and their support for football. I think ISU is definitely at the point where we have good enough everything that now it comes down to the coaching.
From what I have heard in that time we had a Pres that actively undermined athletics. Had we gotten a good coach I agree they weren’t going to pay to keep him. That’s going to be irrelevant to anyone in a P conference now given the dollars and baseline facilities everyone has, that situation isn’t going to happen. You might have an admin drag it’s feet dumping money into facilities, but everyone has good enough facilities where it isn’t going to have that big of an impact.
 

StPaulCyclone

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Duh!
We’ve absolutely crushed college basketball per team by miles and the media still largely ignores the B12 in favor of three significantly weaker conferences the have a permanent love affair with.
They control the narrative and have to promote the Properties.
 

AuH2O

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What I would like to know is what Cal's TV numbers look like when they're good, or at least not terrible.

How many people watched them on TV when they had Jared Goff?

That's really the only thing that matters in realignment, whether we like it or not. It's fair to say Cal might not be judged in this process over the last few sh***y years if they have had good TV-number years within the last decade or so. But if they haven't, then they can win and have all the draft picks or whatever someone is saying matters, and they'll still get left behind - because it's all about TV.
I think it’s more about what they draw in a year in which they perform typically. They were 5-7 last year and drew very poorly. Not even close to 7-6 ISU. 2019 Cal was 8-5 and had two respectable games in afternoon network slots - vs Oregon at 2m and ASU at 1.4m. Now Oregon was 12-2 and ASU was 8-5. Given the slots, opponents, and their record that isn’t great.

That same year games vs UCLA and USC got relegated to FS1, which is telling on its own and drew 440k and 550k.

If you are comparing teams, I think we could expect between 5 and 8 wins typically for both Cal and ISU. When that happens ISU draws way better.
 

2speedy1

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Whatever rubric is used to suss out valuations for media rights is too complicated for my little brain to comprehend. The on-field product seems to be important, except when it isn’t….

I get your overall sentiment, though I don’t think it is necessarily accurate when it comes to the on-field trajectories…at least not over a period of decades.

Hopefully ISU has turned a corner and will be set up to succeed post-Campbell…and hopefully that’s after he retires as a decidedly less Hawkeye-tainted version of Coach Snyder.

Hopefully realignment serves to further set ISU up for success by giving it advantages over the likes of Cal, Washington, Miami, UNC, etc.

The Big 12 certainly seems more hospitable than the Pac-12 or ACC right now, but as a Cyclone fan of a certain age I’m nervous as hell.
I say decades because one could argue ISUs long crawl to relevance began with McCarney. It has been a rollercoaster, but from that point and the start of Pollard, things started an upward trend. From on field product to facilities. Its hard to imagine just how bad things were before McCarney took over.

Cal has been declining since a stint of decent years in the early 2000s otherwise except for a couple "flash in the pan" years, they have been mediocre or below since the '50's.

The problem is I think we all believe we know what matters to these conferences in realignment and the media tries to tell us they know. But really I don't think anyone really knows. It seams like in reality I don't think anyone can really understand the thinking and valuation some of these conferences and media people go by. And it seems everyone has a different theory on what matters.
 
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cyIclSoneU

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I think it’s more about what they draw in a year in which they perform typically. They were 5-7 last year and drew very poorly. Not even close to 7-6 ISU. 2019 Cal was 8-5 and had two respectable games in afternoon network slots - vs Oregon at 2m and ASU at 1.4m. Now Oregon was 12-2 and ASU was 8-5. Given the slots, opponents, and their record that isn’t great.

That same year games vs UCLA and USC got relegated to FS1, which is telling on its own and drew 440k and 550k.

If you are comparing teams, I think we could expect between 5 and 8 wins typically for both Cal and ISU. When that happens ISU draws way better.

I still think that performance in a good year - a school’s “ceiling” - is a very relevant factor. Otherwise USC would not be a take for the B1G. USC is a good example of a high ceiling, relatively low floor program.

Not sure what Cal’s TV ceiling is, or how it compares to Iowa State of the last few years, which historically would be our best on-field results of all time.
 

2speedy1

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hmm, no I disagree somewhat. You have to get to a baseline in facilities, resources and program support to compete at this level. Once you have reached that baseline, then the coaching matters. But our administration purged football and it had a longterm effect. I don't think a good coach would have made any difference during our nuclear winter years. Jim Walden was only telling the truth when he criticized the admin and their support for football. I think ISU is definitely at the point where we have good enough everything that now it comes down to the coaching.
Jim Walden's criticism may have been right for when he was here, but his criticism since has been unwarranted. We had some terrible administrative policies during those times but we have changed a lot since those days.

Jim's problem was he was a terrible coach and instead of accepting that fact he blamed everyone else and never accepted he was part of the problem.
 
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clonedude

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Let's be honest...... football is all that matters, and Cal is NOTHING in football. Nobody even goes to their games at all. Do we want to add them just for academics?
 
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StLouisClone

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This guy suggests the Big 12 take the top 8 Pac schools and leave OSU and WSU behind. But would they all come? Would they agree to equal shares?

 

Cloneman89

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I would take Cal over CU any day. Denver Post article yesterday reports the CU admin thinks the B12 is a JUCO conference and that is why they are constantly meeting. Attempting to dash a move by holding on to a dying PAC. Done with the old pining for CU - facilities are a s***hole and they have no draw. They left and now media wants us to save them? F that. If AZ, ASU and Cal want to come then do it. UU is acting like they are a princess? Leave ‘em - see what UW or Stanford say. OU can live on Nike money for a while. Stop trying to coddle these teams - none of them wanted ISU or any B12 team . F all of them if they are failing - they can live on $25M per team and be the best G5 around.
 

WhoISthis

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I would take Cal over CU any day. Denver Post article yesterday reports the CU admin thinks the B12 is a JUCO conference and that is why they are constantly meeting. Attempting to dash a move by holding on to a dying PAC. Done with the old pining for CU - facilities are a s***hole and they have no draw. They left and now media wants us to save them? F that. If AZ, ASU and Cal want to come then do it. UU is acting like they are a princess? Leave ‘em - see what UW or Stanford say. OU can live on Nike money for a while. Stop trying to coddle these teams - none of them wanted ISU or any B12 team . F all of them if they are failing - they can live on $25M per team and be the best G5 around.



A lot of the loser schools in the PAC circle jerk that they’re in a conference with Stanford, Cal etc. A good amount of their self-image is that they’re therefore somehow peers. So I could see the actual elite schools caring a less
 

FriendlySpartan

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Let's be honest...... football is all that matters, and Cal is NOTHING in football. Nobody even goes to their games at all. Do we want to add them just for academics?
People don’t go to their games because they have been pretty bad for years and there are a million amazing things to do in the area, also attendance doesn’t matter.

Call’s issue is that the university and the alumni don’t seem to care about their relevance in football. What separates them from a Michigan or Texas is that even when those schools hired the wrong coach they were still trying constantly to improve and to bring in great recruiting classes. Cal really just don’t care one way or another.
 

AuH2O

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I still think that performance in a good year - a school’s “ceiling” - is a very relevant factor. Otherwise USC would not be a take for the B1G. USC is a good example of a high ceiling, relatively low floor program.

Not sure what Cal’s TV ceiling is, or how it compares to Iowa State of the last few years, which historically would be our best on-field results of all time.
Well in the past 15 years both KU and USC have a 12 win season, so I think you have to define it with a likely frequency factor. Cal had a 10 win season 16 years ago. It looks like a reasonable range is 5-8 wins for them typically. 2019 and 2021 suggest they are a fairly poor draw when in that range.
 

AlaCyclone

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People don’t go to their games because they have been pretty bad for years and there are a million amazing things to do in the area, also attendance doesn’t matter.
That's always a lame argument IMO. I lived in the Bay Area, and I attended Cal and Stanford games because I was a college football fan. The reason they don't draw well is because the majority of the people in the Bay Area just don't give a hoot about CFB, not because they love CFB but have other things to do. FWIW, I managed to do plenty of other stuff on non Cal-Stanford CFB Saturdays (which is only about 8 Saturdays a year).
 
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t-noah

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The leverage he is talking about is in ******* Oregon State, WSU, and apparently Utah and CU.

I hope this is their plan. Utah may give up on thinking they are actually part of the club, and realize they need to look out for themselves and join CU in killing the PAC

Nothing says power conference like adding G5 schools passed on by the Big12 and forcing those schools plus two existing members to make Mountain West level revenue. As much as I think it is good to officially kill of the PAC, it would be fun to watch this death spiral
This is kind of perverse, taking enjoyment out of watching a longstanding conference potentially collapse. I know you probably don't mean it that way, but. It's a crazy time.

Maybe there are a few disdainful folks in the PAC, and how they handled our conference in the past, etc. Or the present. It's not an easy situation. I don't think it's fun to watch any conference die. Maybe I need to get with the new program.
 

WhoISthis

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This is kind of perverse, taking enjoyment out of watching a longstanding conference potentially collapse. I know you probably don't mean it that way, but. It's a crazy time.

Maybe there are a few disdainful folks in the PAC, and how they handled our conference in the past, etc. Or the present. It's not an easy situation. I don't think it's fun to watch any conference die. Maybe I need to get with the new program.

No, I mean it that way.

They are the competition and this is sorts. Taking enjoyment out of their potential collapse isn’t exactly abnormal
 
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HawaiiClone

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People don’t go to their games because they have been pretty bad for years and there are a million amazing things to do in the area, also attendance doesn’t matter.

Call’s issue is that the university and the alumni don’t seem to care about their relevance in football. What separates them from a Michigan or Texas is that even when those schools hired the wrong coach they were still trying constantly to improve and to bring in great recruiting classes. Cal really just don’t care one way or another.
I've read they have a huge debt on their stadium and for other improvements for their program, but the University as a whole doesn't fund the program much or at all. Unless they play football in a much smaller budget FCS league, find a way to make a lot of money as an independent or drop the sport, the Big 10 or Big 12 could be their best options for repaying the debt.
 
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cyclones500

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This is kind of perverse, taking enjoyment out of watching a longstanding conference potentially collapse. I know you probably don't mean it that way, but. It's a crazy time.

Maybe there are a few disdainful folks in the PAC, and how they handled our conference in the past, etc. Or the present. It's not an easy situation. I don't think it's fun to watch any conference die. Maybe I need to get with the new program.
Agree ... I get no joy from seeing major traditional conferences having to crumble. Of course, realistically, if it's eat-or-be-eaten, it's better for ISU to be in semi-predator league vs. not, so my empathy has limits. If it's "going to happen anyway," better them than us. But again, that isn't "fun" by any means.
 

FriendlySpartan

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That's always a lame argument IMO. I lived in the Bay Area, and I attended Cal and Stanford games because I was a college football fan. The reason they don't draw well is because the majority of the people in the Bay Area just don't give a hoot about CFB, not because they love CFB but have other things to do. FWIW, I managed to do plenty of other stuff on non Cal-Stanford CFB Saturdays (which is only about 8 Saturdays a year).
They don’t care about cfb when the teams aren’t relevant for sure. When the teams are good like when Stanford was going to the rose bowl people showed up. Not sold out crowd after sold out crowd but they still showed up. The problem is when the team isn’t good there are a billion other options.