ISU is like 90 plus percent of programs. If they hire the right coach they will be good. If they hire the wrong coach they will be bad. Same for Iowa. We’ve seen schools with tons of money, great facilities, great local talent, and great history be bad because their coach is bad. We’ve seen Texas, Michigan, and Notre Dame be terrible in recent years. People completely over weigh every “programmatic” factor. All those things are completely dwarfed by the coaching hire decision. And the Big 10 has and had a massive $ advantage over the Big 12 during the critical arms race period of the 90s-10s, and it still didn’t relate to on the field superiority.
The “what happens after coach X” question is dumb because the answer is always the same. ISU hasn’t struggled because we don’t have money, recruits, facilities or haven’t been able to retain good coaches. Bottom line is ISU has had one coach in almost 50 years that has been attractive to better programs, and we’ve retained him so far. ISU hasn’t been very good for the past 50 years because since Bruce our ADs have hired bad to mediocre coaches, as outside of the Chizik fluke at Auburn, none have been successful post ISU.
Hire the
right coach and you’ll be good? You’re only as good as your record. I think the key is to win games. For that you just need to have more points than your opponents when the game clock expires! No need for this coaching, program mumbo-jumbo!
This is a combination of wishful thinking and revisionist history.
Johnny Majors was right on that 50 year boundary. He won a national title at
Pitt, and some SEC titles at Tennessee.
Earle Bruce won conference titles at Ohio State, and came
this close to a national title in a 1-point loss to USC.
Chizik is the last coach I want to defend, but that is unfair. In 4 years as a head coach he won 3 bowl games (including a national title) and was fired after his only season worse than 8-5. In his 2 seasons as a DC, his defense was instrumental in getting
UNC to an ACC title game.
In the brief window Paul Rhoads was attractive to the likes of Wisconsin, his departure was a very real possibility, and a source of major anxiety around here.
Perhaps you’ve missed the freak-outs about Coach Campbell (or Coach Heacock) getting poached? We all hope Coach Campbell is an odd duck and stays at ISU with continued success. The fact he hasn’t been poached yet is evidence of this.
Yes, very insightful…the right coach will make a team good! The wrong coach bad!
You cite Notre Dame. They’ve had 3 coaches over the last 20 years. Each has had exactly 1 losing season, an overall winning record, and least 1 season with 10+ wins.
Michigan? Four coaches in the last 20 years. A total of 4 losing seasons. All but one coach with at least an 11 win season. That coach accounted for 2 of those losing seasons, and was shown the door after going 7-6 in his third. His replacement was let go after his 5-7 fourth season. He was 31-20 (for comparison, Coach Campbell was 26-25 after 4 seasons). That final losing season? That’s interesting, it was the first time didn’t pull the trigger, purportedly because of financial concerns. You might recall that the following season they won their conference and made the playoff.
Texas. Well, yeah. I’ve heard rumors
they’re back.
The
programmatic factor allows for both continuity and course correction. I won’t try to enumerate the elements of that programmatic factor. You mention money, facilities, local talent, and history.
Those are a good starting point, and I’d argue have played a role in why, despite your assertion otherwise, ISU *has* lagged in recruiting.
Recruiting class rankings and NFL draft picks aren’t a perfect proxy for this, but they give a good signal.
Going back to lowly Cal for comparison: In the 12 years of the 247 era ISU has managed to recruit a higher rated class exactly twice (2017 and 2022).
Draft picks are sad of course. ISU has only 1 first round pick and 6 second round picks all-time. Using that 247 era window only, Cal has 4 first round and 3 second round picks (27 first rounders and 22 second rounders all-time).
That’s a window that includes Cal firing two coaches and their worst season in program history (1-11).
To be clear, Cal has very much been a middlin’ program all-time. Much like ISU they just
surprisingly kept their below-.500 current coach who was offered the Oregon job. They’ve mostly sucked the last decade (not a single winning record in-conference). Two fired coaches (and no monetary advantage to hire a star), yet…still recruiting OK…and that is against 3 in-state, in-conference rivals.
Those last two fired coaches, who weren’t great, account for a conference title, 6 bowl wins in 9 appearances, two 10-win seasons, one 9-win season, and four 8-win seasons.
I’d argue that there is some recruiting advantage they have, which is a part of why their floor is *clearly* above ISU’s floor after coaching change, even recently.