- Jun 20, 2006
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that era is since 2014, right? So 8 years. UCLA zero, Wazzu, UU, and UW more than ISU.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
On the flipside, we had a 7-6 season last year that started with a flop. Here were the total viewership numbers last year. The only reason this doesn't look far worse is the elevated G5s, who will get a big boost from playing in better slots against better teams. Now, throw in a few other facts:
- PAC's value is driven largely by Oregon, who may be a Big 10 candidate
- Texas did not provide the typical boost.
- ISU had a 4.9M (Clemson), 3.9M (Iowa), 2.7M (Okie St.) and 2M (Bay) to go along with 3.1 and 900k from OU and UT.
- ISU/Clemson was on directly before Oklahoma/Oregon and outdrew it.
1. Oregon
2. Okie State
3. Iowa State
4. Cincy
5. Baylor
6. Utah
7. Wash
8. West Virginia
9. TCU
10. BYU
11. TTU
12. Stan
13. ASU
14. KSU
15. KU
16. WSU
17. UCF
18. CU
19. Arizona
20. Oregon St.
21. Houston
22. Cal
Week 13 last year:
Cal vs UCLA: 386k on FS1 @ 8:30pm
TCU vs ISU: 518k on FS1 @ 2:30pm
Believe ISU was a Black Friday game.
Cal vs UCLA: 386k on FS1 @ 8:30pm
TCU vs ISU: 518k on FS1 @ 2:30pm
Believe ISU was a Black Friday game.
Even Mandel's article doesn't really work help with the Pac 12.
He notes that the Pac 12 benefits from the 10:30 ET games boosting ratings since they are exclusive time slots. Even with that benefit, the Pac 12 was worth less networks than the Big 12 was. It only stands to reason that if the Big 12 raids the Pac 12 and gets access to those time slots, they will get the benefit of that.
Also, now the Big 10 will be able to compete with that time slot (with a USC or UCLA game no less), which diminishes the value of it to the Pac 12.
He notes that the Pac 12 benefits from the 10:30 ET games boosting ratings since they are exclusive time slots. Even with that benefit, the Pac 12 was worth less networks than the Big 12 was. It only stands to reason that if the Big 12 raids the Pac 12 and gets access to those time slots, they will get the benefit of that.
Also, now the Big 10 will be able to compete with that time slot (with a USC or UCLA game no less), which diminishes the value of it to the Pac 12.
Seems the rest of the Big12 has rallied against Mandel this morning and already poking holes in his supporting data.
I am hoping 2 things happen:
- The next round of conference media negotiations expands beyond ESPN & Fox. I would love for the Big12 to add some Pac12 members. But I don't see it critical to the Big12's success over the next decade. It would be great if NBC, CBS, Amazon & Apple want a large presence in college football.
- That college presidents are smart enough to split up the CFB Playoff broadcast rights. The NFL doesn't rely on one or two networks, neither should colleges rely on 1 network. The playoff should be split into 2 rights packages to maximize revenue and media accountability.
It's not so much that it's an outlier in the positive for ISU specifically, which I think is (like you said) only partly true. It's that 2020 is an outlier in the negative for the Pac12 overall. They played a short season that year relative to even the B1G and probably had terrible viewership numbers relative to the other conferences. I imagine if you compared B12 vs. P12 numbers in 2020 you'd see enough of a change to move the needle on the 5 year average.
That said, I agree he's definitely cherrypicked the numbers to make it support his narrative. The biggest factor to me is that the P12 even without USC (I'm not counting UCLA) still has a national brand in Oregon while the B12 doesn't. We know Oregon is out at the first opportunity, even if it's not in writing yet. So to have a fair comparison you've got to take their numbers out too. This is also assuming that OU/UT/USC/ucla drive 100% of the viewers to those games, which we know is not true. But it would be hard to do an analysis to see if (for example) ISU vs. OU draws more viewers than KSU vs. OU or CU vs USC, etc. I think the actual TV Network folks have done an analysis like this and feel that the B12 with its midlevel brands draws more viewers vs a P12 with only its midlevel brands left.
Like others have said, he's sharing this because it supports his theory of the high value 10:30PM eastern kickoffs. But I'd be interested to see if you compared only games in similar timeslots with similar viewership competition (i.e. you're not going up against OSU - Michigan, OU - UT, Alabama-LSU, etc at 10:30PM eastern)
Stew is just getting what he wants here, clicks and engagement points on the monthly report.
Pac-12 has to now compete with BYU in the Big 12 starting next year.
BYU versus any Big 12 team outdraws EVERY Pac-10 game outside of 2 games a year Oregon vs Utah and Washington.
I also believe that games on the Pac-12 network don’t have the viewership numbers reported. Well those are all of the worst matchups, and so the majority of Pac teams get to shield 5 or 6 low viewership games in there. Imagine if we could throw out KU, UNLV, etc and get our numbers over 2 million per game.
It's a fair point to speculate about. Without OUT, will the B12 be allotted the same number of ABC/FOX/ESPN TV slots? Same with the P12, would they gain or lose spots on the prime networks? Say the B12 has 2 prime network slots per week which are currently generally occupied by OUT. Will we now get ISU/OSU, BU/OSU, etc in those ABC/FOX/ESPN slots? Or, will those games continue to be played on ESPN2/FS1, etc and OUT's prime network slots move with them to the SEC?
I think that even if we assume Mandel's point about tv network slots is generally correct (i.e. those primetime ABC kickoff spots move to the SEC with OUT and Oregon remains in the P12 long term), I think you still see a decline in P12 viewership because USC and UCLA will move B1G games into those late night timeslots and take viewers from the remaining P12.
Where do you get that stat from? BYU was in the 40’s for most watched team and didn’t even average over a million viewers per game. Compared to other big 12 teams they are solidly in the middle for ratings draw. Not saying that the big 12 isn’t going to crush the pac in ratings just kinda wondered where the BYU point came from.
A way to use the 2020 numbers would be to take the number of conference games played by the team that played the fewest (say it was 5) and compare the first 5 conference games played by all of the teams. It wouldn't be perfect, but it might be useful.
MBB doesn't matter. All that matters for $$$ is FB. We love good BBall but it has nothing to do with these conversations.
Yes, of course the network split is going to be affected with different media deals and conference make up going forward. FOX has rumored to have pulled out of negotiations with the PAC, so that national FOX broadcast right there is at risk. ESPN going full in on SEC...are they going to put a secondary conference in their prime time slots? I would say look at the ACC as an example. Stew is out of his mind here.
I wonder why they don't negotiate the contracts separately, maximize each one.
Wilner coming in hot on the Stew train. Seems like they've really put the spin to their numbers over the weekend for a Monday morning attack.
He is getting skewered in the reply section of his twitter. Nobody is buying what he is trying to sell.
