This is one reason I think it is important for the Big12 to go "big" in terms of lots of schools, like the Mountain 4, any ACC leftovers if it breaks up, etc.
A 12 team Big12 is much easier to ignore and drop than a 24 team, nationwide conference.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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A 12 team Big12 is much easier to ignore and drop than a 24 team, nationwide conference.
There is this risk, and this is why the Big 12 can’t be overly selective in expansion. Whether that’s including pain in the ass schools, dealing with market redundancy, etc, objective #1 is getting control of enough brands and geography that Big 10 and SEC expanding to 20-24 each and breaking away becomes enough of a political or financial risk in cutting out too many consumers.
Adding a couple million per team by being too selective and keeping a small league that risks being excluded from playoff access is the definition of penny wise and pound foolish. If there is an official, explicit exclusion from the playoff level of football, it’s lights out for that AD as we know it.
I’ve heard a few media people like Dan Patrick coming to the conclusion a lot of us have had, which is in the long run a small breakaway league loses its product differentiation from the NFL and eventually starts costing itself money. Teams don’t need to be equal at all, but if you block chunks of the country from the “premier” league, it’s risking overall growth of the sport.
Always take the bird in the hand. Otherwise you may end up with nothing.
If I were Yormark, I'd be tempted to give the 6 Pac schools (4 corners + Oregon and Washington) an offer that's something like below to incentivize them to commit earlier rather than later.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 30 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive full share of the Big 12's new GOR from the very beginning.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 60 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 3 years and full share after that.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 after the next 60 days, but before 1/1/23 and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12 only if fewer than 18 teams have already committed.
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 6 years and full share after that.
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This is why all leftovers should want a 3rd super conference. Just a matter of which 5-6 schools are initially left out.
But the 4 corners should be willing to lock in their spot, for more money, given they dont have the leverage to save Oregon St and WSU.
I like it, but I would amend to preferential treatment to the first that jumped. Make them not trust each other. Even go a step further, and give those with the greatest risk of being left out, the biggest incentive to be first to go Big 12.
If the 4 corners leave, and Oregon doesn't have a BIG offer, they are kind of ******, and would be forced to join imo. I think it is reasonable if some of the 4 corners made that situation possible, they get rewarded with some of Oregon's share.
After 60 days? Let them know the risks. Maybe SDSU (meh). Maybe we wait for ACC instead. Maybe schools decide to use the nuke option, and 6-10 Big 12 schools go the ACC. Good luck to the 4 corners in that case if the BIG later takes more PAC. They'll be in the mountain west 2.0 with 2 Big 12 leftovers.
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Oregon : apply to Big 12 with a short, 3 year GOR, hoping that a bigger conference comes calling
SDSU : same. Might be temped to demand unequal revenue sharing from the pac 12 because you know how much they need your market.
H
Why y’all trying to make San Diego State happen?
If Yormark is really the shark he's been made out to be, then I'd be surprised if he isn't putting out an offer that's something like this to pressure the Pac schools. Having leverage is useless, unless you utilize it.If I were Yormark, I'd be tempted to give the 6 Pac schools (4 corners + Oregon and Washington) an offer that's something like below to incentivize them to commit earlier rather than later.
*Maybe even let them know that after 60 days from now, we plan to put fourth an offer to San Diego State, so there may not be room for all 6 schools.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 30 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive full share of the Big 12's new GOR from the very beginning.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 60 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 3 years and full share after that.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 after the next 60 days, but before 1/1/23 and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12 only if fewer than 18 teams have already committed.
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 6 years and full share after that.
Agree. It is a PAC delusion and anti-Big 12 with this talk that the 4 corners can wait, as the Big 12 will always take them. That isn't true- if the money isn't worth them moving to the Big 12, then without a PAC, it is not necessarily worth the Big 12 to add all 4.
Let alone the risk the Big 12 is exploited by ESPN.
The 4 corners will likely never again have such an ability to dictate their future, as well as the future of leftovers.
- Destroys the Pac's plans for expansion and makes it much more likely Pac teams will defect to Big 12
- Now that San Diego has lost the NFL, San Diego State is the only game in town
- One of the largest urban areas in the US
- A brand new stadium which opens this fall
- Gives major new market and west coast exposure for Big 12
You forgot the most important thing
San Diego doesn’t care about sports let alone San Diego State
If I were Yormark, I'd be tempted to give the 6 Pac schools (4 corners + Oregon and Washington) an offer that's something like below to incentivize them to commit earlier rather than later.
*Maybe even let them know that after 60 days from now, we plan to put fourth an offer to San Diego State, so there may not be room for all 6 schools.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 30 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive full share of the Big 12's new GOR from the very beginning.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 60 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 3 years and full share after that.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 after the next 60 days, but before 1/1/23 and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12 only if fewer than 18 teams have already committed.
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 6 years and full share after that.
I don't think we should try to strongarm anybody. We don't have that kind of leverage. We'd take Oregon and Washington now, 60 days from now, or 365 days from now and they know it.
We need to prove we can pay them more than the PAC, and that they'd be full members from the jump. That's Yormark's job now - get that TV money number up at least 10 million more than the PAC with a hard offer.
Is it strong arming? If so, that's poor execution, and would be on Yormark.
It is removing the myth that the offer will always be there. That simply isn't true- he can't even assure them the Big 12 will be there if they pass now. Let alone will the 4 corners, some of the bottom PAC schools, always be takes by the Big 12.
He should also be incentivizing a first mover. A carrot more than a whip. If AZ wants to take on the risk of being the first to jump, it should be compensated for doing so.
The only flaw to this that I see is the order in which negotiations and deals are likely to happen. The order I see it happening:If I were Yormark, I'd be tempted to give the 6 Pac schools (4 corners + Oregon and Washington) an offer that's something like below to incentivize them to commit earlier rather than later.
*Maybe even let them know that after 60 days from now, we plan to put fourth an offer to San Diego State, so there may not be room for all 6 schools.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 30 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive full share of the Big 12's new GOR from the very beginning.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 in the next 60 days and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 3 years and full share after that.
- Commit to joining the Big 12 after the next 60 days, but before 1/1/23 and:
- Be assured admission into the Big 12 only if fewer than 18 teams have already committed.
- Receive partial share of the Big 12's new GOR for first 6 years and full share after that.
- PAC's exclusive window with FOX and ESPN closes Aug 5th (ESPN's offer is on the table, FOX declined to bid)
- Big 10 Media deal gets done (probably by end of Aug/early Sept)
- PAC hits the open market and gets bids from other media companies
- Big XII/ACC get projections from their media partners on what different configurations of PAC additions would mean for their media deals and share it with relevant schools.
Maybe Fox opted not to bid during their exclusive window with the PAC because they're willing to pay more for the Big XII + select PAC schools. Maybe some combination of CBS and/or Amazon/Apple/Netflix goes hard after the PAC just to keep/get a piece of college football. Maybe ESPN thinks nobody else will want the PAC at what they already bid or has designs on getting some of the PAC schools into the ACC.
Institutional changes like this are rarely made without first knowing the baseline - not making any changes. From there, all the options are examined and worked through.
Oregon, Washington and Stanford want to slow-walk everything in hopes the Big 10 offer comes through. The Big XII isn't going to turn them down if they add value just because they took their time. The same goes for the rest of the schools. There's no fire at this moment and plenty of time to make a rational, carefully considered decision.
I agree that it wouldn't seem like there's a 100% chance that the offer will be there in the future.
If they hold out until closer to the ACC GOR expiration (or if somehow that got dealt with before), the coordinates change on realignment, and there are situations where the Mountain schools are on the outside looking in.
This is one of the better chances they have on securing their future IMO
And with all those things, going 12-2 last year, going to the MWC championship, winning their bowl, and still only averaged 198K viewers, only good enough for 78th in the country, Well behind even Wash St and even Oregon St. Plus many other G5s, With the only P5s with lower viewership being BC and Duke.
Having a great year, actually an exceptional year, and still no one cared. SDSU not really a great add.
