Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[carvers4math]

Forgive my Captain Obvious routine:

Though the genetic lottery likely played a significant role, you must have done a whole lot right for your son to be in a position to join that baseball team. Congratulations, and my sincerest respect to you as a parent!

I think my contribution was solely a matter of making my boys love books. Most of that physicist had to come from the husband. But he was strong enough in everything else to get the 36 ACT. My only son not to go to ISU but Cyclones came in second because of the full ride they offered for National Merit scholars.

Caltech does a field day every year where they have various activities on the Rose Bowl field, at least they did when my son was there. Several of his friends were on the infamous Caltech basketball team as his house seemed to have the majority of the team. We went to a game and this guy was heckling the other team endlessly. Asked son who it was, response was the Dean of Students! Son was there to rush the court when they finally broke the conference losing streak of 310 games and 26 years.

 

[SCNCY]

I can see both these things happening. People throw antitrust around a lot considering not only how rare it is but how it also doesn’t apply to something like college football. The playoff committee could easily say that you have to be in a conference to get in or they could just break away and have a P5 playoff. It’s not like a non P5 team has a realistic chance of winning anyways.

Easiest way to do that is to make the playoff for conference champs only.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I can see both these things happening. People throw antitrust around a lot considering not only how rare it is but how it also doesn’t apply to something like college football. The playoff committee could easily say that you have to be in a conference to get in or they could just break away and have a P5 playoff. It’s not like a non P5 team has a realistic chance of winning anyways.

The Alston case in the Supreme Court from a few years ago explicitly rejected the NCAA’s argument that it is immune from antitrust laws.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh rips NCAA in antitrust ruling, says it 'is not above the law'

Justice Brett Kavanaugh's opinion tears into the NCAA, says its business model "would be flatly illegal in almost any other industry in America."

www.usatoday.com

 

[Gonzo]

The Alston case in the Supreme Court from a few years ago explicitly rejected the NCAA’s argument that it is immune from antitrust laws.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh rips NCAA in antitrust ruling, says it 'is not above the law'

Justice Brett Kavanaugh's opinion tears into the NCAA, says its business model "would be flatly illegal in almost any other industry in America."

www.usatoday.com

That's assuming there is an NCAA in 10 years. Who knows what the B1G and SEC might do moving ahead.

 

[Daserop]

I found the first 5 minutes of this interesting. These two guys are sports radio hosts out in Salt Lake City. Per there sources Pac-12 is maxed out at 300 million for 5 years.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The Alston case in the Supreme Court from a few years ago explicitly rejected the NCAA’s argument that it is immune from antitrust laws.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh rips NCAA in antitrust ruling, says it 'is not above the law'

Justice Brett Kavanaugh's opinion tears into the NCAA, says its business model "would be flatly illegal in almost any other industry in America."

www.usatoday.com

That is in regards to compensation, not that every single conference should have access to a playoff spot. Two entirely different things.

 

[CascadeClone]

If more of the PAC get gobbled up by B1G, then fire up the rumors of 4 corner schools to Big12 again. I don't even know if there would be time for rumors, it might just be done at the same time.

If the B1G grabs 2 more PAC schools, it won't be rumors... it'll be a fait accompli.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

That is in regards to compensation, not that every single conference should have access to a playoff spot. Two entirely different things.

It’s a different question to ask whether X violates antitrust rather than to say antitrust doesn’t apply to college football, like you did.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

That's assuming there is an NCAA in 10 years. Who knows what the B1G and SEC might do moving ahead.

Not sure why their leaving the NCAA would grant them the immunity the NCAA argued for and was rejected, but lawyers will surely get paid to research and argue about it.

 

[CascadeClone]

I found the first 5 minutes of this interesting. These two guys are sports radio hosts out in Salt Lake City. Per there sources Pac-12 is maxed out at 300 million for 5 years.

$30m per team, but what all is included in that number? It sounds like Tier 1,2,3 all in.

Someone posted earlier that Big12 expects $37M per team for Tier 1,2,3 post OuT.

That doesn't seem like enough difference to push anyone to the Big12 without further B1G poaching. Unless they have unequal revenue sharing or no GoR agreement, and that's enough to annoy/scare someone into jumping.

 

[Gonzo]

Not sure why their leaving the NCAA would grant them the immunity the NCAA argued for and was rejected, but lawyers will surely get paid to research and argue about it.

I don't know either but if money and greed really does continue to drive this thing the P2 could say they're going to break off from the NCAA and stage their own playoffs between just the B1G and SEC, similar to the NFL with the NFC and AFC. Not saying that's all that likely, or that it's something I'd want to see, but if it's two conferences forming an arrangement like that absent an overarching governing body, what could stop them?

 

[isucy86]

Agree. That’s what I meant when you said they could stay at 10. If they do, they are basically just in survival mode and hoping something crazy happens. Or the lower teams figure it’s more than their other options.

I get the feeling that we could see some Big12/Pac12 combination in the next 12 months.

If not, realignment is probably quiet until the next Big10 contract renewal. That allows ACC schools to buy some time with their GOR and for top media value Pac12/Big12 teams to emerge.

Also the media rights marketplace might evolve by 2030.

The one item that could throw a wrench into the collegiate sport culture is the NCAA reorg or transformation of scholar-athlete model to paid employee.

 

[theshadow]

The playoff committee could easily say that you have to be in a conference to get in or they could just break away and have a P5 playoff. It’s not like a non P5 team has a realistic chance of winning anyways.

CFP changes are made by the governance end (10 conference reps + ND), and those changes reportedly require a unanimous decision. Notre Dame isn't going to vote against its own interests.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

$30m per team, but what all is included in that number? It sounds like Tier 1,2,3 all in.

Someone posted earlier that Big12 expects $37M per team for Tier 1,2,3 post OuT.

That doesn't seem like enough difference to push anyone to the Big12 without further B1G poaching. Unless they have unequal revenue sharing or no GoR agreement, and that's enough to annoy/scare someone into jumping.

Where did this come from? Seems remarkably specific and also different from something CW shared with us Patreon people last month.

 

[isucy86]

Yes to most of what you said, I will add this...ESPN might want Big12 Basketball, it no longer has B1G basketball, that's a lot of programing to fill. Big12 BB is high quality content, SEC and Pac not so much.

ESPN will have SEC & ACC hoops.

The addition of Texas and OU are just as important to SEC for hoops as football.

ESPN can also televise professional sport for winter nights.

 

[RustShack]

Where did this come from? Seems remarkably specific and also different from something CW shared with us Patreon people last month.

Yeah the Big12 won’t be that low.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

ESPN will have SEC & ACC hoops.

The addition of Texas and OU are just as important to SEC for hoops as football.

ESPN can also televise professional sport for winter nights.

ESPN has to fill ESPN, 2, U, ACCN, SECN, and ESPN+ with content in basketball season. I think ESPN still will want at least some Big 12 and/or Pac-12 rights accordingly.

 

[isucy86]

CFP changes are made by the governance end (10 conference reps + ND), and those changes reportedly require a unanimous decision. Notre Dame isn't going to vote against its own interests.

Governance can change. If the NCAA governance model changes, it would not surprise me if G5 schools become a separate division like FCS and are forced to have their own championship.

 

[Cloneon]

That is in regards to compensation, not that every single conference should have access to a playoff spot. Two entirely different things.

With NIL and playoffs, it essentially is the same argument from a 'business model' standpoint.

 

[isucy86]

ESPN has to fill ESPN, 2, U, ACCN, SECN, and ESPN+ with content in basketball season. I think ESPN still will want at least some Big 12 and/or Pac-12 rights accordingly.

It really only has to fill content on ESPN & ESPN2.

Sure it can throw a football or MBB game on their conference networks. But the conference networks can fill airtime with volleyball, WBB, baseball and softball or non-event content or replays.

It wouldn't surprise me ACCN or SECN don't get folded into ESPN+. Who knows ESPN+ could be folded into Disney+.