Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Klubber]

I totally agree the money hasn't helped the big ten become dominant. I disagree that you think the big12 will be getting more then 50mil per school. That is higher then anything I have seen but I hope you guys get it.

Perception and recruiting doesn't come from spreadsheets it comes from not having flagship programs. Currently the big 12 has only 3 teams in the top 25 of recruiting right now and those teams will continue to fall down the rankings because they have predominantly 3 star talent. Those 3 teams combined only have 9 total 4 stars or higher. The SEC has 8 teams that have more 4/5 stars combined then those three teams put together and the Big Ten has 5 with more. That is the problem with recruiting and perception that will have to be overcome.

I don't know what projections you're looking at. I've seen ones as high as 56MM. And keep in mind we don't know for sure what the Big XII membership will look like come contract time.

I really don't see a recruiting perception problem in the Big XII. A 4* recruit for Ohio St is only a 3* if he chooses to come to say ISU. Texas gets a ton of 4* & 5*'s every year, and they continue to suck every year.

On the field results tell the story, not stars and recruiting rankings and the Big XII has fared well in the non-con slate and vs other FBS and P-5 schools.

Obviously Texas & OU leave a void. But that said, I don't think it'll be as pronounced as some think. And I think there are teams ready to step up and fill that void.

Neither OU or Texas made the conference championship game last year, and Texas again, has obviously been mediocre for some time.

I guess I'm an optimist, but honestly I've never felt so positive about the future of ISU athletics as I do now. And that's even with all the upheaval right now in college sports. I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Saw an interesting interview with Gundy. The other area that Big12/Pac12 might have to utilize is Thur/Fri night games.

Would be curious if a CBS, Fox or NBC would be interested in televising a Fri at 7p game each week. Then add a late night PT zone game on a secondary channel.

One of the problems with weeknight games is that the channels don't get the flexibility of picking the best game. The weeknight games are chosen before the season. For Saturday games, the channels can wait and pick whatever game they want 1-2 weeks in advance. I imagine FOX/CBS would want the ability to choose the Big 12 game of the week if they were paying top dollar and offering an OTA broadcast window.

So this might only have value if the Big 12 would let CBS pick its Friday 8 PM ET game 12 days in advance. And I really doubt that the schools would be OK with the unknown of whether they were hosting a game on Saturday or Friday with only that much lead time to prepare facilities, staff etc. It's a big production on a university campus.

 

[Klubber]

The problem is going to be not having OU or UT, they were worth about half of your last media deal by themselves. And you're now going to be splitting the pie 12 ways instead of 10. Not saying the next deal won't be in the same neighborhood as the last one, maybe even a little more, but it's going to be tough getting a deal that brings a lot higher of a per school payout.

I'm assuming we'll be adding more teams from the PAC before the next negotiation. We'll see.

The 50% figure for OUT was something Bowlsby said like over a year ago. And IIRC that number's been revised down quite a bit since that time.

 

[JohnnyFive]

Think about where the nfl is if there is a split to a super conference, then think about who the best teams are in those areas: Penn state, Miami, Florida, FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Utah or Byu not both, Arizona or ASU not both, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon. There’s your NFL light. 32 teams covering all the Major metros and then some, if you think you need to get a team further NE than Penn State, add Rutgers or Maryland and take take out South Carolina or Kansas.

Ive never seen a business model where alienating tens of millions of people that adored your product is an accepted practice. Hope it works out for the TV networks

 

[isucy86]

There are Iowa fans on 247 who were in complete and total denial that a hyopthetical SEC/Big 10 higher power merger wouldn't want them. Because when I think of valuable markets and historical CFB money makers everyone obviously thinks of Iowa City and the Hawkeyes

A lot would depend on the prestige of the Iowa program at the time a super league would be created.

Is it the Iowa program of the last 35 years or is it the Iowa program of the 1960's & 1970's. They probably have a 50/50 shot if their new coach has them playing like recent years. If they are a .500 or under program at the time they get left behind.

Who knows, there could be a relegation structure.

 

[cykadelic2]

Ive never seen a business model where alienating tens of millions of people that adored your product is an accepted practice. Hope it works out for the TV networks

I hope it blows up in their face.

But I do agree that the destruction of a popular model by conference realignment will end up alienating far more fans of the sport than growing the sport. And not only football, basketball and other sports will decline as well.

 

[cybychoice]

Ive never seen a business model where alienating tens of millions of people that adored your product is an accepted practice. Hope it works out for the TV networks

Realignment has destroyed tons of regional rivalries, why not a few more? I’m not saying I agree with it, simply showing what a 32 team nfl light model would look like.

 

[Gonzo]

I'm assuming we'll be adding more teams from the PAC before the next negotiation. We'll see.

The 50% figure for OUT was something Bowlsby said like over a year ago. And IIRC that number's been revised down quite a bit since that time.

Adding more teams just means splitting the pie into smaller portions.

 

[RustShack]

Adding more teams just means splitting the pie into smaller portions.

When it’s before negotiations you order a bigger pie. It just depends on the adds. Yes, Oregon State and Washington State would lower the pay, which is why they aren’t options.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Adding more teams just means splitting the pie into smaller portions.

In the current Big 12 OU and and Texas receive higher amounts, so equal revenue sharing will help. I'm not sure what the next contract looks like, but that's something to consider.

 

[2speedy1]

Adding more teams just means splitting the pie into smaller portions.

So adding USC and UCLA means splitting the B10 pay into smaller portions? Adding ND would mean splitting the B10 pay into smaller portions?

Pretty sure when you are negotiating a deal, you talk to the media people and say if we add this school or that school what will it do to our contract. Will it be equal money, will it increase pay, will it lower per school pay. Which is why nothing has been done officially yet, and why these things take time. You have to make sure all things are worked out and you know who is a value add, not a dilutive add. Also why the upcoming B12 negotiation is important, vs being already locked down like the ACC.

 

[Gonzo]

So adding USC and UCLA means splitting the B10 pay into smaller portions? Adding ND would mean splitting the B10 pay into smaller portions?

Pretty sure when you are negotiating a deal, you talk to the media people and say if we add this school or that school what will it do to our contract. Will it be equal money, will it increase pay, will it lower per school pay. Which is why nothing has been done officially yet, and why these things take time. You have to make sure all things are worked out and you know who is a value add, not a dilutive add. Also why the upcoming B12 negotiation is important, vs being already locked down like the ACC.

These schools bring a much higher value in the eyes of TV than other Pac programs, by a lot. So even though there'll be 16 pieces of the pie instead of 14 in the B1G, the size of those pieces is still going to be a lot bigger.

 

[Clonedogg]

In the current Big 12 OU and and Texas receive higher amounts, so equal revenue sharing will help. I'm not sure what the next contract looks like, but that's something to consider.

Tier 1 and 2 are shared equally in the big12.

 

[Klubber]

Adding more teams just means splitting the pie into smaller portions.

Not necessarily

 

[2speedy1]

These schools bring a much higher value in the eyes of TV than other Pac programs, by a lot. So even though there'll be 16 pieces of the pie instead of 14 in the B1G, the size of those pieces is still going to be a lot bigger.

Ah so you think The Big 12 is so dumb they will add programs that dont add value, only dilute value huh? Makes sense.

Fact is there are not too many programs that add value at $80-100M, if you use that number.
There are a lot more that add or match value at $40-50M

So adding teams that equal or increase the Big 12 pay is easier than the Big 10, at this point anyone not named Notre Dame is probably dilutive to the Big 10. But not so in the Big 12.

And again the Big 12 is just going into their negotiations, they can work on any additions while they negotiate, in order to get the most for any additions.

Also the end of the Big 10 current contract has similar $$ as the beginning of their new contract $60M+/- then increases to 80-100M at the end of the contract. After playoff increases etc.
I also assume the end of the current Big12 contract will also be similar to the beginning of the new contract at about $50M+/- then increase to 70-80M at the end. After playoff increases etc.

 

[Gonzo]

Ah so you think The Big 12 is so dumb they will add programs that dont add value, only dilute value huh? Makes sense.

Fact is there are not too many programs that add value at $80-100M, if you use that number.
There are a lot more that add or match value at $40-50M

So adding teams that equal or increase the Big 12 pay is easier than the Big 10, at this point anyone not named Notre Dame is probably dilutive to the Big 10. But not so in the Big 12.

And again the Big 12 is just going into their negotiations, they can work on any additions while they negotiate, in order to get the most for any additions.

Also the end of the Big 10 current contract has similar $$ as the beginning of their new contract $60M+/- then increases to 80-100M at the end of the contract. After playoff increases etc.
I also assume the end of the current Big12 contract will also be similar to the beginning of the new contract at about $50M+/- then increase to 70-80M at the end. After playoff increases etc.

So you think the next Big 12 media deal will be equal to, or better, on a per-school pay out than the SEC media deal that's running into the mid 2030s? Because $70-$80 mil/year is where the SEC per school payout is looking like it'll top out at.

 

[2speedy1]

@Gonzo I'm glad you are optimistic. I am too.

I'm also optimistic that TOE will finally be able to pay their bills when they get that big pay raise, but I am quite a bit less optimistic about that. My guess is they will have to sell another painting or two.

 

[2speedy1]

So you think the next Big 12 media deal will be equal to, or better, on a per-school pay out than the SEC media deal that's running into the mid 2030s? Because $70-$80 mil/year is where the SEC per school payout is looking like it'll top out at.

70-80M is where the SEC will top out without a Playoff expansion. With a playoff expansion its expected to be $105M+/- by 2030.

Also the SEC deal starts at about 70M Per I believe not ends.

 

[Gonzo]

70-80M is where the SEC will top out without a Playoff expansion. With a playoff expansion its expected to be $105M+/- by 2030.

Also the SEC deal starts at about 70M Per I believe not ends.

Nobody knows what's going to happen with playoff expansion. Right now conferences get $6 mill for each team in the CFP. So let's say the CFP expands to 12 teams and the SEC gets 6 in. That gets the SEC another $36 mill, divided by 16, that gets every SEC school another $2.25 mill. So how do you figure the playoff expansion is going to net every SEC school an additional $25-$35 mill a year?

 

[WhoISthis]

Nobody knows what's going to happen with playoff expansion. Right now conferences get $6 mill for each team in the CFP. So let's say the CFP expands to 12 teams and the SEC gets 6 in. That gets the SEC another $36 mill, divided by 16, that gets every SEC school another $2.25 mill. So how do you figure the playoff expansion is going to net every SEC school an additional $25-$35 mill a year?

You’re forgetting the base pay.