Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

The stench of desperation is all over this.

So apparently Kliavkoff says if they charter all their flights for all sports their costs could triple to $27M. As a reason they should block them moving.

So... They still will be Netting $30-50M increase from the Pac after this (estimated according to him) increase.

 

[BCClone]

So apparently Kliavkoff says if they charter all their flights for all sports their costs could triple to $27M. As a reason they should block them moving.

So... They still will be Netting $30-50M increase from the Pac after this (estimated according to him) increase.

That's like saying, I'm turning down that 50,000 dollar raise because it would require me to buy better wifi at home and that's another $60 per month.

 

[2speedy1]

That's like saying, I'm turning down that 50,000 dollar raise because it would require me to buy better wifi at home and that's another $60 per month.

I still say that the Cal Regents can throw a fit, they can get involved all they want. The Big 10 will be happy to replace them with Stanford, Oregon or Washington.

I have a feeling all of those are just as or more valuable as UCLA, it is just that UCLA came as a bundle with USC at the time. But if they want to make it a problem, the Big 10 has better options and will not hesitate to take them if push comes to shove.

I think it would be hilarious if the BOR prevents them from leaving, and the Big 10, adds Stan, Ore, and Wash instead, to keep USC happy and entice ND. Which leaves UCLA hung out to dry with Cal, while the 4 corners jump to the Big 12. Those 2 will be willing to accept a huge reduction in pay for a long time in that instance to get an invite. And that BOR would have serious Egg on their face.

 

[CascadeClone]

The stench of desperation is all over this.

Yeah, but what's he gonna do? It's his job to keep it together. Better to throw the hail mary than to just kneel on the ball and lose.

 

[2speedy1]

Yeah, but what's he gonna do? It's his job to keep it together. Better to throw the hail mary than to just kneel on the ball and lose.

Sometimes ya gotta just PUNT.

 

[isucy86]

To your ESPN+ having the main linear ESPN networks on there is happening. Not sure when but it will be happening sooner than most think based on reports.

If ESPN, ESPN2 are added to ESPN+, then they will need to bump the fee considerably from the current $10/month. ESPN currently charges cable & streaming platforms around $9/month to include ESPN & ESPN2 on their linear platforms. Since 100% of cable & streaming customers pay this fee, it would need to be at least $9 additional bump on ESPN+. I would expect ESPN+ with ESPN/ESPN2 to be $25-$30/month. Maybe more with SEC & ACCN included.

Would not surprise me if cable & streaming linear platforms lose 25% of their subscribers if people could watch ESPN on a standalone ESPN platform. I also think ESPN linear networks would be put on Disney+ platform and eventually have ESPN+ as an added subscription service.

 

[isucy86]

I would hope; but between rural Wi-Fi, cheap fans and those looking to “teach ESPN a lesson” some at CF temper my expectations.

The rural Wi-Fi limitation will be minimized with Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink.

It is currently available, but cost is steep. Monthly charge is around $110 and equipment is over $500. But as adoption & technology evolves- hopefully price is competitive with cable, wireless internet.

 

[KnappShack]

If ESPN, ESPN2 are added to ESPN+, then they will need to bump the fee considerably from the current $10/month. ESPN currently charges cable & streaming platforms around $9/month to include ESPN & ESPN2 on their linear platforms. Since 100% of cable & streaming customers pay this fee, it would need to be at least $9 additional bump on ESPN+. I would expect ESPN+ with ESPN/ESPN2 to be $25-$30/month. Maybe more with SEC & ACCN included.

Would not surprise me if cable & streaming linear platforms lose 25% of their subscribers if people could watch ESPN on a standalone ESPN platform. I also think ESPN linear networks would be put on Disney+ platform and eventually have ESPN+ as an added subscription service.

This was from last year.

Even if ESPN could double that number for a streaming app at $30, the service would make less than the $9 billion ESPN takes in today.

Disney's shift to streaming puts ESPN in awkward position of clinging to the past

Disney has executed the transition to streaming effectively, but its popular ESPN channels are still reliant on traditional pay TV.

www.cnbc.com

 

[isucy86]

Yeah, but what's he gonna do? It's his job to keep it together. Better to throw the hail mary than to just kneel on the ball and lose.

I agree, that's his job. But what does he think will happen if the Regents block UCLA's move? USC will also come crawling back?

I can tell you what happens. The Big10 Presidents meet the following day and give Warren permission to call Stanford and invite them to join the Big10. California BOR or state politics have no control over a couple wealthy private universities.

 

[AlaCyclone]

I agree, that's his job. But what does he think will happen if the Regents block UCLA's move? USC will also come crawling back?

I can tell you what happens. The Big10 Presidents meet the following day and give Warren permission to call Stanford and invite them to join the Big10. California BOR or state politics have no control over a couple wealthy private universities.

That (USC and Stanford vs. USC and UCLA) would actually be better for the B1G.

The B1G be like "Don't throw us in the briar patch!"

 

[isucy86]

This was from last year.

Even if ESPN could double that number for a streaming app at $30, the service would make less than the $9 billion ESPN takes in today.

Disney's shift to streaming puts ESPN in awkward position of clinging to the past

Disney has executed the transition to streaming effectively, but its popular ESPN channels are still reliant on traditional pay TV.

www.cnbc.com

Thanks for linking. That is a great article on the business dynamics of cord cutting on Disney & ESPN revenue drivers.

I think it also shows why Amazon is interested in adding live sports. If customers would be willing to pay $30/month for live sports on ESPN, then Amazon should eventually be able to add live sports and charge an incremental subscription above the current Prime fee.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

Klivakov just sent a letter to the California Board of Regents to try to force UCLA from leaving, according to an article on The Athletic. Good luck with that George.

 

[WhoISthis]

The stench of desperation is all over this.

This, after his meltdown on media day.

At what point does the PAC show some self respect and stop this tantrum? I can only imagine how badly Bowlsby snd Big 12 would have been roasted for this delusion

 

[Die4Cy]

If ESPN, ESPN2 are added to ESPN+, then they will need to bump the fee considerably from the current $10/month. ESPN currently charges cable & streaming platforms around $9/month to include ESPN & ESPN2 on their linear platforms. Since 100% of cable & streaming customers pay this fee, it would need to be at least $9 additional bump on ESPN+. I would expect ESPN+ with ESPN/ESPN2 to be $25-$30/month. Maybe more with SEC & ACCN included.

Would not surprise me if cable & streaming linear platforms lose 25% of their subscribers if people could watch ESPN on a standalone ESPN platform. I also think ESPN linear networks would be put on Disney+ platform and eventually have ESPN+ as an added subscription service.

Cable carriage fees are only being held together with chewing gum and baling wire and this fact has been known for some time. ESPN may be a tent pole to the current system, but at some point the cord cutting becomes an anchor around the cable industry's neck and they will not be able to sustain ever increasing carriage rates to have ESPN available, no matter how badly they need it.

The end of cable is coming. And ESPN will be the one that kills it. I happen to think that given how focused the P2 has been on securing over the air game slots in this round of network bargaining, that the B1G and SEC are hedging that it happens before the end of their recently negotiated contracts.

From Disney's point of view, they are gambling that they can go from being paid for a handful of channels you actually watch, to being paid to be the supply source for ALL the channels you watch with Hulu+LIVE .

 

[alarson]

This was from last year.

Even if ESPN could double that number for a streaming app at $30, the service would make less than the $9 billion ESPN takes in today.

Disney's shift to streaming puts ESPN in awkward position of clinging to the past

Disney has executed the transition to streaming effectively, but its popular ESPN channels are still reliant on traditional pay TV.

www.cnbc.com

Though, in fairness, that $9bil will continue to drop every year as more and more drop cable.

 

[nfrine]

Sometimes ya gotta just PUNT.

That's what Gonzo would do...

 

[WhoISthis]

Cable carriage fees are only being held together with chewing gum and baling wire and this fact has been known for some time. ESPN may be a tent pole to the current system, but at some point the cord cutting becomes an anchor around the cable industry's neck and they will not be able to sustain ever increasing carriage rates to have ESPN available, no matter how badly they need it.

The end of cable is coming. And ESPN will be the one that kills it. I happen to think that given how focused the P2 has been on securing over the air game slots in this round of network bargaining, that the B1G and SEC are hedging that it happens before the end of their recently negotiated contracts.

From Disney's point of view, they are gambling that they can go from being paid for a handful of channels you actually watch, to being paid to be the supply source for ALL the channels you watch with Hulu+LIVE .

Bundling will always occur though. it’s the middle man delivery services that will feel the hit.

 

[isucy86]

Cable carriage fees are only being held together with chewing gum and baling wire and this fact has been known for some time. ESPN may be a tent pole to the current system, but at some point the cord cutting becomes an anchor around the cable industry's neck and they will not be able to sustain ever increasing carriage rates to have ESPN available, no matter how badly they need it.

The end of cable is coming. And ESPN will be the one that kills it. I happen to think that given how focused the P2 has been on securing over the air game slots in this round of network bargaining, that the B1G and SEC are hedging that it happens before the end of their recently negotiated contracts.

From Disney's point of view, they are gambling that they can go from being paid for a handful of channels you actually watch, to being paid to be the supply source for ALL the channels you watch with Hulu+LIVE .

That would probably be most profitable for them.

But, if they can charge $30/month for ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, etc.- then they will be willing to offer that programming on Amazon, Netflix, Apple or even as a standalone ESPN App.

 

[RustShack]

If they block UCLA’s move, there’s probably three scenarios.

They take USC and Stanford.

They take USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford.

Or they take USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington(potentially minus Oregon if ND decides to jump).

 

[Gonzo]

If they block UCLA’s move, there’s probably three scenarios.

They take USC and Stanford.

They take USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford.

Or they take USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington(potentially minus Oregon if ND decides to jump).

I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.

If CA blocks UCLA's move it'd be a classic case of shooting themselves in the foot. B1G would just move on to Stanford or someone else. UCLA was a tagalong. USC is the prize. So the PAC would still be in a death spiral and neither of the CA schools would be getting any of the payout. Smarter move would be for regents to try getting UCLA to kick some amount of their B1G money over the Cal.