Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Arkansas Cyclone]

Same story, different person although there was a modest mention of the Big 12.

UNC Brass Discussed Potential ACC, Pac-12 ‘Super Conference,’ per Report - Sports Illustrated

The uncertainty in the ACC caused decision-makers at UNC to discuss a potential conference merger.

www.si.com

 

[exCyDing]

That’s horrible logic.

It won’t be a way out, as much a way around. A settlement that all schools agree to. It’s been only a few months to get that worked out. A solution will be found well before 2036. Likely before 2026

I just don't see a plausible settlement that all schools would agree to. A couple schools - BC, WF, Syracuse - might take a $20m+ per year hit if the ACC breaks up and they don’t get picked up by the B12. A couple schools - Pitt, NC State, VA Tech - would very likely get picked up, but it would be a lateral move and quash any (remote) possibility of working their way into a P2 invite by 2036 like Clemson has over the past 12 years.

Do the B10/SEC gain power or more money by adding ACC schools? Probably not.

Do the Networks make more money? Probably not. ESPN would probably come out a loser with increased payouts/decreased inventory if they lose their sweetheart ACC deal. Also, how would the economics be different than the OUT situation? If they couldn’t get them in the SEC 2 years early, why would getting some ACC teams into the P2 10 or more years early be different?

So where does the money come from? How much makes it worth the while for the teams that would go to the B12? How about those schools that would get left out?

That’s my logic. What’s yours?

 

[exCyDing]

I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.

What's the penalty attached to the whole "if ND joins a conference in football it must be the ACC" thing? I know that's part of the deal, but the ACC isn't going to get their football media rights, I can't imagine ND signed those away as part of that agreement. Maybe I'm wrong? The media value of ND's non-football sports is a relative pittance, so paying the ACC off for those wouldn't cost much. If anyone knows what the penalty would be for ND joining a different conference in football other than the ACC, I'd be curious.

I’m not sure that it’s a set amount, tbh. There might be some metric to determine the relative value of the ACC sports to B10s that Notre Dame has in the ACC. I’m sure the ACC would get their pound of flesh, but it seems like that could at least be feasible.

 

[RustShack]

The ACC owns their GoR. It doesn’t matter how much more they would make in another conference, the ACC gets that money and distributes it to their members. No one is touching ACC schools unless Texas and Oklahoma find a way to get out of theirs(which ESPN paying more may allow the Big12 to agree, a luxury the ACC doesn’t have), or if all ACC schools agree to dissolve the ACC. ND isn’t as bound to the ACC as the ACC schools are. There would be some fee to break free, and maybe their other sports stay in the ACC for 10 years, but ND isn’t as tied down as the rest.

Obviously ND doesn’t want to join a conference, but their feelings could have changed with the new playoff format. Top four conference champions get a bye, so they don’t have a shot at ever getting a first round bye unless they join a conference. It’s still early, and as we know it takes a lot of time to make these decisions. B1G potentially adding Stanford adds another ND rival. Assuming the B1G moves to the protected rival route and no divisions, they get to play all their rivals, schedule a few noncon like Navy, and then just play a few more B1G schools.

It will probably happen eventually, unless ND doesn’t care they have no chance at a first round bye.

 

[WhoISthis]

I just don't see a plausible settlement that all schools would agree to. A couple schools - BC, WF, Syracuse - might take a $20m+ per year hit if the ACC breaks up and they don’t get picked up by the B12. A couple schools - Pitt, NC State, VA Tech - would very likely get picked up, but it would be a lateral move and quash any (remote) possibility of working their way into a P2 invite by 2036 like Clemson has over the past 12 years.

Do the B10/SEC gain power or more money by adding ACC schools? Probably not.

Do the Networks make more money? Probably not. ESPN would probably come out a loser with increased payouts/decreased inventory if they lose their sweetheart ACC deal. Also, how would the economics be different than the OUT situation? If they couldn’t get them in the SEC 2 years early, why would getting some ACC teams into the P2 10 or more years early be different?

So where does the money come from? How much makes it worth the while for the teams that would go to the B12? How about those schools that would get left out?

That’s my logic. What’s yours?

Those schools won’t make &20 million less and they are easiest to agree to settlement. They are on a 2016 TV rights era deal for 14 more years- not hard to beat- and are without a spot come 2036.

They will be added to whatever 3rd conference would form, or the ACC leftovers get part of Big 12 (plus nice check from departing schools) in exchange for ESPN adding PAC schools to remaining Big 12. ESPN isn’t buying rights on Big 12 (or PAC) without getting further consolidation.The GOR allows ESPN to control things right now- they won’t let that expire unused.

The ACC schools added to Big 12, plus ACC network growing when rolled into Big 12 Network, it isn’t going to be $20 million less than current ACC deal. It would actually be more between refreshed rates and network expansion.

The alternative is to wait out GOR, getting last in pay among “power” conferences, with the bottom ACC schools likely being on American come 2036

There are two options for ACC leftover schools- refuse to settle, and at best make 2016 contact and then unknown conference come 2036. Or leverage the GOR to get some of the utility and exit fees when the P2 conferences take what they want.

ESPN isn’t going to allow Fox/Amazon etc to make an offer to UNC, UVa, FSU, Miami, Duke to go BIG, playing all road games until ACC and ESPN capitulate. It’s getting settled, with UNC the keystone. Once the decide who goes where it’s just finding spots for the P2 or bust types (my guess Duke, UVA, FSU with UNC to SEC or BIG, with Miami and Clemson leveraging GOR for invites)

 

[isucy86]

I just don't see a plausible settlement that all schools would agree to. A couple schools - BC, WF, Syracuse - might take a $20m+ per year hit if the ACC breaks up and they don’t get picked up by the B12. A couple schools - Pitt, NC State, VA Tech - would very likely get picked up, but it would be a lateral move and quash any (remote) possibility of working their way into a P2 invite by 2036 like Clemson has over the past 12 years.

Do the B10/SEC gain power or more money by adding ACC schools? Probably not.

Do the Networks make more money? Probably not. ESPN would probably come out a loser with increased payouts/decreased inventory if they lose their sweetheart ACC deal. Also, how would the economics be different than the OUT situation? If they couldn’t get them in the SEC 2 years early, why would getting some ACC teams into the P2 10 or more years early be different?

So where does the money come from? How much makes it worth the while for the teams that would go to the B12? How about those schools that would get left out?

That’s my logic. What’s yours?

Schools like Pitt, NC State, Va Tech have just as good a shot of being promoted to P2 from the Big12 or Pac12 than from the ACC. They might have a better shot if there are three Power conferences and they prove to be the Clemson of the BigPacACC super conference. Who knows, by 2030 the best way for the Big10 & SEC to keep growing revenue might be a promotion/relegation model. Where schools like Rutgers & Vanderbilt could risk being relegated and the elite teams from the BigPacACC promoted.

There are schools in the ACC that would generate more money for the Big10 or SEC. I would think FSU, Clemson, Miami & UNC would be givens. Schools like UVA and Ga Tech might have value if they expand footprint for Big10 or SEC, I think the biggest question pertains to Big10 and how it replaces BTN carriage fees it currently gets from every cable & streaming platform subscriber.

The Networks could come out ahead. For example, the ACC earned $578M of revenue or averaging $36M per school in 2020/21. Not sure what amount was from ESPN, but lets just go with around 80% or $450M. If only 4 current ACC teams move to the SEC, then ESPN might only have to invest $300M (4 x $75M). Sure less inventory, but having 10 games a weekend might be saturation.

 

[exCyDing]

Those schools won’t make &20 million less and they are easiest to agree to settlement. They are on a 2016 TV rights era deal for 14 more years- not hard to beat- and are without a spot come 2036.

They will be added to whatever 3rd conference would form, or the ACC leftovers get part of Big 12 (plus nice check from departing schools) in exchange for ESPN adding PAC schools to remaining Big 12. ESPN isn’t buying rights on Big 12 (or PAC) without getting further consolidation.The GOR allows ESPN to control things right now- they won’t let that expire unused.

The ACC schools added to Big 12, plus ACC network growing when rolled into Big 12 Network, it isn’t going to be $20 million less than current ACC deal. It would actually be more between refreshed rates and network expansion.

The alternative is to wait out GOR, getting last in pay among “power” conferences, with the bottom ACC schools likely being on American come 2036

There are two options for ACC leftover schools- refuse to settle, and at best make 2016 contact and then unknown conference come 2036. Or leverage the GOR to get some of the utility and exit fees when the P2 conferences take what they want.

ESPN isn’t going to allow Fox/Amazon etc to make an offer to UNC, UVa, FSU, Miami, Duke to go BIG, playing all road games until ACC and ESPN capitulate. It’s getting settled, with UNC the keystone. Once the decide who goes where it’s just finding spots for the P2 or bust types (my guess Duke, UVA, FSU with UNC to SEC or BIG, with Miami and Clemson leveraging GOR for invites)

I think you’re oversimplifying the media deal. It’s not a flat rate per year set in 2016, it elevated through the life of the contract. Projections with the 12 team playoffs with conference affiliation remaining static (post OUT/USCLA) have the ACC pulling slightly ahead of the B12 in the next couple of years.

I don’t see a realistic scenario where WF, BC, Duke, Syracuse and probably Louisville get a B12 invite if/when the ACC blows up. Duke’s bb value is far and the best in college basketball, and it’s worth about as much as Kansas’s football. In other words, LOL, have fun in the Big East. L’ville would’ve been a solid add in 2012 when the B12 needed to grow. That won’t be the case if the B12 is the sole #3 conference. If a school doesn’t grow the pie, they’re not getting in.

Any ACC schools that pursue an all-road schedule for an indeterminate amount of time , good luck with recruiting. That’s going to tank their programs faster than being in arguably the #3 conference. That’s setting aside what schools make from home football games (tickets, suites, parking, concessions) and the inevitable outrage from season ticket holders and boosters.

The AAC makes ~ $8m. The left out ACC schools would grow that, but yeah, a $20m cut is probably a conservative guess and that number goes up after the CFP expands. How many schools does the P2 take? I count maybe 6. B10 will want to get into FL (Miami and/or FSU) plus NC/VA and GA Tech checks a lot of their boxes. VA and NC would grow the SEC footprint. Clemson’s in depending on when this all goes down and if they’ve maintained their recent success or reverted to their mean (good, rarely great). B12 takes 3 that are making a lateral move (VA Tech, Pitt, NC St, maybe GA Tech). The 8 that aren’t P2 will want something. I’m guessing $5m/yr per ACC school that goes to the B12 and $25m per year per school that gets left out might get everyone on board. At 10 years, that’s $1.2B, plus exit fees and penalties. Adjust accordingly for when exactly this all happens.

ESPN’s not going to pay a dime to blow up the ACC. They’ve got a great deal and I don’t think the cost to consolidate yields a positive ROI. That throws

 

[CascadeClone]

I just don't see a plausible settlement that all schools would agree to.

The only way I see it working is a formal dissolve where 8 teams (4 each to the B1G and SEC) vote to disband the ACC and thus nullify the GoR.

NOW, there's clearly no guarantee of that happening - requires Fox, ESPN, SEC, and B1G to all work together (ie collude). And that might precipitate a "tortious interference" lawsuit of the left-behinds. But stranger crap has happened, so who knows.

 

[2speedy1]

I would laugh so hard if the Cal regents screw this up. B1G replaces them with Cal, OU and UW join too. B12 grabs the 4 corners, and Cal and UCLA end up relegated to the Mountain West.

Cali regents control both UCLA and Cal. They wont replace them with Cal. They will replace them with Stanford, UW, and/or OU. Not Cal.

 

[exCyDing]

The only way I see it working is a formal dissolve where 8 teams (4 each to the B1G and SEC) vote to disband the ACC and thus nullify the GoR.

NOW, there's clearly no guarantee of that happening - requires Fox, ESPN, SEC, and B1G to all work together (ie collude). And that might precipitate a "tortious interference" lawsuit of the left-behinds. But stranger crap has happened, so who knows.

That could work, but if schools have a spot lined up, they lose their vote. Somehow, they’re going to need 8 votes to dissolve without any of them knowing exactly what they’re voting for.

 

[aeroclone]

Cali regents control both UCLA and Cal. They wont replace them with Cal. They will replace them with Stanford, UW, and/or OU. Not Cal.

Ah crap, my typo. Yes, the B1G just swaps in Stanford and both of the California publics end up out in the cold.

 

[isucy86]

That could work, but if schools have a spot lined up, they lose their vote. Somehow, they’re going to need 8 votes to dissolve without any of them knowing exactly what they’re voting for.

The other side of that equation is ESPN. If a couple premier ACC teams figure a way to jump ship to Big10 (and Fox), then ESPN would come back to the other 12 ACC teams and want to negotiate an even lower media deal. So if the ACC/ESPN deal goes lower, then does Big12 TV money look a lot more attractive to NCSU, Va Tech, Pitt, etc.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think you’re oversimplifying the media deal. It’s not a flat rate per year set in 2016, it elevated through the life of the contract. Projections with the 12 team playoffs with conference affiliation remaining static (post OUT/USCLA) have the ACC pulling slightly ahead of the B12 in the next couple of years.

I don’t see a realistic scenario where WF, BC, Duke, Syracuse and probably Louisville get a B12 invite if/when the ACC blows up. Duke’s bb value is far and the best in college basketball, and it’s worth about as much as Kansas’s football. In other words, LOL, have fun in the Big East. L’ville would’ve been a solid add in 2012 when the B12 needed to grow. That won’t be the case if the B12 is the sole #3 conference. If a school doesn’t grow the pie, they’re not getting in.

Any ACC schools that pursue an all-road schedule for an indeterminate amount of time , good luck with recruiting. That’s going to tank their programs faster than being in arguably the #3 conference. That’s setting aside what schools make from home football games (tickets, suites, parking, concessions) and the inevitable outrage from season ticket holders and boosters.

The AAC makes ~ $8m. The left out ACC schools would grow that, but yeah, a $20m cut is probably a conservative guess and that number goes up after the CFP expands. How many schools does the P2 take? I count maybe 6. B10 will want to get into FL (Miami and/or FSU) plus NC/VA and GA Tech checks a lot of their boxes. VA and NC would grow the SEC footprint. Clemson’s in depending on when this all goes down and if they’ve maintained their recent success or reverted to their mean (good, rarely great). B12 takes 3 that are making a lateral move (VA Tech, Pitt, NC St, maybe GA Tech). The 8 that aren’t P2 will want something. I’m guessing $5m/yr per ACC school that goes to the B12 and $25m per year per school that gets left out might get everyone on board. At 10 years, that’s $1.2B, plus exit fees and penalties. Adjust accordingly for when exactly this all happens.

ESPN’s not going to pay a dime to blow up the ACC. They’ve got a great deal and I don’t think the cost to consolidate yields a positive ROI. That throws

The Big 12 will be ahead of ACC. And that’s true if adding ACC schools, plus ACC network. Your $20 million hit is not close to reality .

The networks are deciding leftover realignment and who gets invites. The Big 12 won’t be getting a TV deal without agreeing to wherever setup the networks want. And ESPN wants more consolidation, and if that means taking ACC leftovers, we’ll do it. The alternative is ESPN moving some Big 12 and/or PAC to ACC

The ACC wouldn’t make one season without top schools before capitulation. There wouldn’t be a hit to recruiting because the threat alone ie enough to get a settlement. That’s likely the max exchange of utility- if it costs 4 schools combined $60 million to play all road games, then the 10 leftovers could share $60 million/year for 14 years, if the P2 schools are feeling generous. Plus maybe amortized exit fees. Add in Big 12 contract, and the ACC leftovers are looking at a nice bump in pay over next 14 years.

ESPN is going to spend money to consolidate- they aren’t giving the Big 12 anything without getting those benefits, and they aren’t wasting the GOR by letting it reach expiration. It’s safe to say the discussion on which schools go where is well underway

 

[qwerty]

I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.

I think end of Sept.

 

[cykadelic2]

ESPN is going to spend money to consolidate- they aren’t giving the Big 12 anything without getting those benefits, and they aren’t wasting the GOR by letting it reach expiration. It’s safe to say the discussion on which schools go where is well underway

And this is where the B12 (or more specifically the R8) should/will tell ESPN to go eff themselves and go do a deal with other networks.

 

[2speedy1]

So with the rumors of the merger talks between ACC and PAC and ACC and Big 12.

This brings up some interesting points.

ACC merger with the PAC makes very little sense for anything more than academics. The ACC has shown that while they have better academics than others in their conference, they also have been willing to accept schools like Louisville so it is not the end all factor.

A merger between the ACC and Big 12 is much more intriguing I would think for both the ACC and the Big 12. The values are more similar being that the current value of both conferences looks to be similar moving forward. The travel partners would be very complimentary, and there could be some very strategic placement of teams together to aid in travel. And moving forward it would still allow growth to the west if it was deemed valuable, being a coast to coast league of 30+ teams etc.

The football and basketball product would be excellent, and the conference would be a possible landing spot for ND, if they chose to go to a conference. Boosting income greatly. If all these happened this conference could see its income in line with the B1G and SEC.

The only question is what would a merger do with their media deal and GOR, My feeling is the Media deal would be reopened but all teams would be required to sign GOR, but then again is a merged conference a new conference therefore all new deals?

Not saying any of this happens, but it does bring up an interesting scenario, and one that I could see being much more enticing to the commissioners than a merger with the PAC at this point.

 

[RoseClone]

Wow, Kliavkoff has pulled out the climate change card.

Rule No 1: You gotta know your audience

 

[Gonzo]

So with the rumors of the merger talks between ACC and PAC and ACC and Big 12.

This brings up some interesting points.

ACC merger with the PAC makes very little sense for anything more than academics. The ACC has shown that while they have better academics than others in their conference, they also have been willing to accept schools like Louisville so it is not the end all factor.

A merger between the ACC and Big 12 is much more intriguing I would think for both the ACC and the Big 12. The values are more similar being that the current value of both conferences looks to be similar moving forward. The travel partners would be very complimentary, and there could be some very strategic placement of teams together to aid in travel. And moving forward it would still allow growth to the west if it was deemed valuable, being a coast to coast league of 30+ teams etc.

The football and basketball product would be excellent, and the conference would be a possible landing spot for ND, if they chose to go to a conference. Boosting income greatly. If all these happened this conference could see its income in line with the B1G and SEC.

The only question is what would a merger do with their media deal and GOR, My feeling is the Media deal would be reopened but all teams would be required to sign GOR, but then again is a merged conference a new conference therefore all new deals?

Not saying any of this happens, but it does bring up an interesting scenario, and one that I could see being much more enticing to the commissioners than a merger with the PAC at this point.

I to am an Petras fan, your to dumb too recognize there ability too grow QBs. Petras four Heisman!

Geography, logistics, travel strongly favors Big 12/ACC.

Culture, academics, snootyness strongly favors PAC/ACC.

 

[RustShack]

Wait are there new rumors of mergers? Or just the old already shot down and laughed about ones?

 

[2speedy1]

Wait are there new rumors of mergers? Or just the old already shot down and laughed about ones?

When the emails etc came out from UNC etc, there were talks of a merger floated between the ACC and PAC, since then there have been a few media types floating the idea that the ACC and Big 12 have either talked or talking about it.

Whether that is complete smoke or anything real who knows. I would not doubt there have been at least the idea floated, but further than that who knows. My feeling is all of these possibilities either have been or are being looked at, at least in some form. Whether any of it goes anywhere that is really anyone's guess.

My guess is a lot of what has been said out there is just people guessing that because they floated the merger with the Pac that the Big 12 is being talked to as well, but who knows. My post was just in whatever scenario these mergers are being looked at, I would think a merger with the ACC would be at least favorable to other options, if it were possible. And more so for both parties than anything with the PAC.