Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[1UNI2ISU]

This hasn’t been a disastrous day for the Pac6 (7). But it’s been close.

Lost the top of the AAC and all but one of the middle of the MWC, as they just got Utah State. What was looking like a solid push to be far and away the best of the G6 last week, has definitely gone up in flames.

I also question how a league of OSU, WSU, SDSU, CSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State will fetch $10-15M a year. That lineup is on par with the AAC and they get, what, $7M a year?

No, it's been a disaster.

You've, very publicly, been turned down by schools that have made it very clear they're unhappy in their current leagues, especially the AAC schools.

Now, we're going to have two tiny Western leagues that are only separate because reasons.

 

[jctisu]

PAC 12 must be really desperate to add schools. A full share for a basketball only school. Woof.

I will look at it the other way and congratulate Oregon State and Washington State with trying and doing everything they can. Their former league mates were all against expansion with serious schools from the Big 12 years ago due to the snootiness of the academics and Oregon State and Wazzu paid the price down the road.

Good for them for keeping the conference alive as best as they can.

 

[HFCS]

This hasn’t been a disastrous day for the Pac6 (7). But it’s been close.

Lost the top of the AAC and all but one of the middle of the MWC, as they just got Utah State. What was looking like a solid push to be far and away the best of the G6 last week, has definitely gone up in flames.

I also question how a league of OSU, WSU, SDSU, CSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State will fetch $10-15M a year. That lineup is on par with the AAC and they get, what, $7M a year?

AAC schools, I understand them declining to effectively join the old MWC in favor of staying eastern/central.

Not getting their pick of the MWC to fill out to 8-10 teams is a disaster for this new thing. There's basically going to be two conferences in the pacific/mountain that aren't radically different in quality if latest rumors are true. It's great news for the lowest rung of MWC though that really would be kind of geographically screwed. If the Gonzaga news was fake news I'd move it to "disaster" and Pac 2 would've been better just fully merging with MWC.

 

[HFCS]

No, it's been a disaster.

You've, very publicly, been turned down by schools that have made it very clear they're unhappy in their current leagues, especially the AAC schools.

Now, we're going to have two tiny Western leagues that are only separate because reasons.

There was a brief time where MWC was starting to roll in football, but then you had Boise State's greatest years still in the WAC right within the footprint. It could be like that, although I'm skeptical any of these teams could ever be as competitive as TCU/Utah/BoiseSt of that time, the one Utah team has a legit claim to an outright NC in my opinion. By the time Boise State slid into the MWC, Utah and TCU were on the way out.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

AAC schools, I understand them declining to effectively join the old MWC in favor of staying eastern/central.

Not getting their pick of the MWC to fill out to 8-10 teams is a disaster for this new thing. There's basically going to be two conferences in the pacific/mountain that aren't radically different in quality if latest rumors are true. It's great news for the lowest rung of MWC though that really would be kind of geographically screwed. If the Gonzaga news was fake news I'd move it to "disaster" and Pac 2 would've been better just fully merging with MWC.

Well I define disaster as they get turned down by everyone and the 4 MWC defectors renege and return to the MWC.

This outcome is slightly better than that, but I wouldn’t call it a win that’s for sure.

 

[HFCS]

Well I define disaster as they get turned down by everyone and the 4 MWC defectors renege and return to the MWC.

This outcome is slightly better than that, but I wouldn’t call it a win that’s for sure.

I'd have put the odds that UNLV/Nevada/San Jose St type of programs say "no" at around 1%. It's pretty shocking against how these things have gone in the past.

It won't get the massive headlines but it's one of the more shocking things in the whole saga.

I actually like it, another program or two was on track to be stranded/relegated like Idaho was years ago.

It's just a question who does new Pac get if they are really at 7 with "no" from rest of MWC.

 

[heitclone]

I really think Memphis/USF/UTSA/Tulane are better off where they are. Seems some of these we're getting into really granular "upgrades". You have to factor in that the current American teams aren't going to be raided again if they say no to this new Pac.

They are waiting on the ac. The acc could lose it's top 7 or 8 teams and still be more a more attractive league than the new PAC.

Feels like the acc will backfill from the aac and the new PAC.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Wonder if Louisville still spends that much to put absolute trash out on the court

Lot of B10 schools in the $10 million dollar range that are dog crap also, its their money, they can do with it what they want. Last 4 years they have been down, but before that they were about as good as you can get for a lot of years. Of course they were cheating, but everyone else was doing it also.

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[HFCS]

They are waiting on the ac. The acc could lose it's top 7 or 8 teams and still be more a more attractive league than the new PAC.

Feels like the acc will backfill from the aac and the new PAC.

I think it’s incredibly likely only 2-3 ACC programs are left without a Big 12 invite and effectively join current American. (Not including cal/stan)

They can keep the ACC name if they want but it’s going to be more like WSU/OrSt being Pac 2 than the actual ACC.

These 4 American targets made right choice to stay put either way I think.

Cal and Stanford are gonna end up in a weird situation no matter what.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

They are waiting on the ac. The acc could lose it's top 7 or 8 teams and still be more a more attractive league than the new PAC.

Feels like the acc will backfill from the aac and the new PAC.

If the ACC schools can get out of their media rights, its not stopping at 7 or 8 schools, that is just the number the B10 and SEC will take, throw in the B12 and it will be like rats leaving a sinking ship as they are all trying to get a spot in a lifeboat conference.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

I'd have put the odds that UNLV/Nevada/San Jose St type of programs say "no" at around 1%. It's pretty shocking against how these things have gone in the past.

It won't get the massive headlines but it's one of the more shocking things in the whole saga.

I actually like it, another program or two was on track to be stranded/relegated like Idaho was years ago.

It's just a question who does new Pac get if they are really at 7 with "no" from rest of MWC.

I agree. This definitely is not how realignment usually goes.

The MWC fought back after getting dealt a tough hand. Took exit fees and basically paid big bucks to keep the top tier of what’s left. If UNLV, Nevada, Air Force are getting $10M windfall then it probably makes sense to just stay put, rather than go to P12 for like $2 or $3M more a year (if that)

 

[Gonzo]

In the scenario where Big Ten gets ND and is just done cutting up the pie, that's the next issue I would agree. It's not absolutely guaranteed there's interest both ways with SEC/UVA/UNC and Clemson/FSU are in markets they already have.

With the Big 12 and ACC so even already pre-defections, it really wouldn't take hardly anything for a few teams to jump to Big 12 and if Yormark is still running things he'd take 2/3 of them. A few like Pitt and Louisville have a 0% chance of an SEC/B1G invite yet fit into the new Big 12 absolutely perfectly.

I see Boston College, Wake Forest and maybe a few others as the next Oregon St/WSU. Believe me it's not joyful because ISU/KSU seemed to be those prospective teams for a decade in a half.

B1G ain't getting ND, likely ever.

 

[HFCS]

B1G ain't getting ND, likely ever.

Probably. It seems like a spite thing at this point. It’s too bad it might have stopped a lot of the dumbest expansion from big ten.

I do wonder if acc crumbles what their schedules look like. Maybe similar agreement w big 12. I’m fine with the tradeoff they get to dodge the all important sacred 13th data point but cannot ever secure a top 4 seed.

 

[qwerty]

I think you either had Iowa state winning out but losing the ccg or losing to Utah but winning the ccg? I ran losing to Utah and losing the ccg and got a 69% chance at the playoff with a first round game at ole miss.

It would impossible to lose the ccg and get the 4 seed.

Yep, I rechecked and I read my click on the CCG wrong. If we lose to Utah but win the CCG, we are #4 seed. So, there is only one thing left to do . . . . .

 

[Gonzo]

Probably. It seems like a spite thing at this point. It’s too bad it might have stopped a lot of the dumbest expansion from big ten.

I do wonder if acc crumbles what their schedules look like. Maybe similar agreement w big 12. I’m fine with the tradeoff they get to dodge the all important sacred 13th data point but cannot ever secure a top 4 seed.

Yeah I think there's a lot of spite both ways. They both have to know they're perfect for each other. But there's a lot of bad history on the part of the B1G. And I think ND sees itself as a little extra precious, and if they were to join the B1G they wouldn't be treated as extra precious. The B1G would 1,000% roll out the red carpet and kiss serious Irish a$$ publicly, but ND wouldn't get any special terms or revenue advantages or treatment or anything, and I think that's something they would think they deserve.

 

[JHUNSY]

 

[BoomerClone]

So, the PAC 12 is now just trying to be the best of the G5. Ok. That’s fine and dandy.

 

[NWICY]

If PAC’s forecasts are correct, $10-15M in TV rights per year with basketball as the flagship program is going to make Gonzaga one of, if not the, highest basketball budgets in the country.

Assuming what, 70% of that budget goes to basketball plus donors and gate revenue. How many other schools have like a $10M annual budget for basketball?

Strictly guessing KU, Duke, N Carolina?

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

Looks like PAC 12 brass were reading my USU posts.
Sounds like UNLV is taking some extra time to make their decision.

 

[Cyclonsin]

AAC schools, I understand them declining to effectively join the old MWC in favor of staying eastern/central.

Not getting their pick of the MWC to fill out to 8-10 teams is a disaster for this new thing. There's basically going to be two conferences in the pacific/mountain that aren't radically different in quality if latest rumors are true. It's great news for the lowest rung of MWC though that really would be kind of geographically screwed. If the Gonzaga news was fake news I'd move it to "disaster" and Pac 2 would've been better just fully merging with MWC.

Giving a school a full share to a school that doesn't participate in the (by far) most profitable sport is significantly worse than not adding them. That, paired with the rejection from the AAC schools, UNLV, and Air Force is absolutely a disaster. It reeks of desperation and instability.