Single error in BCS computer rating changes the rankings of four teams

[edr247]

Didn't see this posted elsewhere, so here you go. If a similar thread already exists, my sincere apologies.

BCS computer error reveals massive flaw in college football system - Andy Staples - SI.com

All I can say is...wow...

Jerry Palm, the proprietor of CollegeBCS.com, had spotted an error in Wes Colley's computer ranking. Colley had failed to include the score of the Western Illinois-Appalachian State FCS playoff game in his data set. That omission distorted the BCS rankings. LSU and Boise State were swapped at No. 10 and No. 11, and Alabama and Nebraska were swapped at No. 17 and No. 18.

That's right. The score of the Western Illinois-Appalachian State playoff game influenced the rankings of these four teams. What's more is, neither of these teams played the four teams that the rankings ended up affecting.

Plus, the article brings up a good point in that...

Of the six computer rankings the BCS uses, Colley's is the only one available to the public -- or to the conferences that run the BCS. The other five could be riddled with mistakes, and the entity tasked with creating the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup would never know it.

Yikes...

 

[Bigman38]

Another example of how the BCS system is inadequate. Still haven't heard an argument for the BCS that makes any sense over a playoff.

 

[GeronimusClone]

I have bowel movements more accurate than the BCS.

 

[edr247]

I just can't get over the fact that the missed playoff score of two FCS schools that didn't even play Alabama, Nebraska, Boise State or LSU, on one computer ranking, could affect their overall BCS rankings.

 

[Bigman38]

Did they get the Jets vs. Patriots result? That might effect some more teams too. Makes as much sense as the Div. 2 playoffs having an effect.

 

[cycfan1]

I just can't get over the fact that the missed playoff score of two FCS schools that didn't even play Alabama, Nebraska, Boise State or LSU, on one computer ranking, could affect their overall BCS rankings.

Opponent's opponent I am guessing.

 

[Aaron Jacobs]

Aren't opponent's opponent's records part of the formula, therefore changing teams BCS score.

 

[TitanClone]

Keep BCS and bowl games.

Top 8 in BCS rankings have a mini playoff for the NC. Problem solved. More games played both in total, and games that would have national appeal.

 

[azepp]

There's a mushroom cloud erupting from Pelini's office right now.

 

[CyJack13]

Keep BCS and bowl games.

Top 8 in BCS rankings have a mini playoff for the NC. Problem solved. More games played both in total, and games that would have national appeal.

Well there is the answer. I'm sure the Big East and ACC will gladly sign off on this deal where they no longer get the $15M+ a BCS game brings into the conferences.

 

[CycloneGB]

Keep BCS and bowl games.

Top 8 in BCS rankings have a mini playoff for the NC. Problem solved. More games played both in total, and games that would have national appeal.

Or keep the BCS bowls, take the winners of those games, and have a 4 team playoff for the National Champ. That way the BCS can still have all its games AND some sort of playoff.

 

[jbhtexas]

Another example of how the BCS system is inadequate. Still haven't heard an argument for the BCS that makes any sense over a playoff.

It has been determined by those getting paid that the present BCS arrangement will generate more $$$ for the schools than a playoff system. Presently, this is the only argument that matters.

 

[CyJack13]

Or keep the BCS bowls, take the winners of those games, and have a 4 team playoff for the National Champ. That way the BCS can still have all its games AND some sort of playoff.

You're eliminating two BCS teams, most likely an SEC or B10 team, those conferences don't like to get less money. Need to go to a plus one system first, that's the logical progression to a playoff.

 

[CycloneGB]

You're eliminating two BCS teams, most likely an SEC or B10 team, those conferences don't like to get less money. Need to go to a plus one system first, that's the logical progression to a playoff.

How does that eliminate 2 BCS teams?

EDIT: I follow you now, eliminate the 2nd B10 or SEC team that currently makes a BCS Bowl

 

[edr247]

Some digging around on the schedules of Western Illinois and App State... I've bolded the teams that, to the best of my knowledge played the four teams affected. Looks like Boise not only didn't play any of these guys, I don't think they played anybody who played these guys. There are, however, some direct connections to the SEC (and one to Nebraska). But it's just jaw-dropping to think that these distant connections would influence the rankings.

WIU- (apparently won't play too many non 'State' or 'directional' schools...
Valparaiso:
Purdue:
Sam Houston State:
Indiana State:
North Dakota State: played Kansas
South Dakota State: played Nebraska
Youngstown State: played PSU
Missouri State: played KSU
Illinois State:
Southern Illinois:
Northern Iowa: played ISU
Coastal Carolina: played West Virginia

App State-
Chattanooga: played Auburn
Jacksonville:
North Carolina Central:
Samford:
Elon
Citadel
Western Carolina
Furman: played South Carolina
Georgia Southern
Wofford
Florida

 

[Cydkar]

Some digging around on the schedules of Western Illinois and App State... I've bolded the teams that, to the best of my knowledge played the four teams affected. Looks like Boise not only didn't play any of these guys, I don't think they played anybody who played these guys. There are, however, some direct connections to the SEC (and one to Nebraska). But it's just jaw-dropping to think that these distant connections would influence the rankings.

WIU- (apparently won't play too many non 'State' or 'directional' schools...
Valparaiso:
Purdue:
Sam Houston State:
Indiana State:
North Dakota State: played Kansas
South Dakota State: played Nebraska
Youngstown State: played PSU
Missouri State: played KSU
Illinois State:
Southern Illinois:
Northern Iowa: played ISU
Coastal Carolina: played West Virginia

App State-
Chattanooga: played Auburn
Jacksonville:
North Carolina Central:
Samford:
Elon
Citadel
Western Carolina
Furman: played South Carolina
Georgia Southern
Wofford
Florida

Why?

 

[edr247]

Why?

Why what?

 

[jsmith86]

Why should it be jawdropping that the strength of schedule of your opponents' opponents can influence your ranking? If we wanted a real way to compare, it would go to the 3rd and 4th layer of opponents or further. But I'm guessing the BCS doesn't want to purchase a supercomputer to crunch the numbers.

 

[edr247]

Why should it be jawdropping that the strength of schedule of your opponents' opponents can influence your ranking? If we wanted a real way to compare, it would go to the 3rd and 4th layer of opponents or further. But I'm guessing the BCS doesn't want to purchase a supercomputer to crunch the numbers.

It's just surprising to me that just one error that affects the SOS of an opponent of an opponent (or even that opponent's opponent), in one computer rating should influence the BCS rankings as a whole to the point that two teams end up switching positions. What if the teams in question were Oregon and TCU? Or Wisconsin/tOSU/MSU? You're talking about either having to change the match-ups or having to tell a team that technically earned the spot that they won't be going to that bowl game. Of course, this assumes that there are no similar errors in any of the other computer rankings or anything like that.

Leaving out the results of the championship game of some smaller FBS conference that actually played one or more of the teams involved in this, and having that affect the final results is one thing. Having the opponents of FCS playoff teams influence the final rankings is another, IMO.

 

[Rogue52]

There is NOT a simple answer to a Division I FBS post-season.