*****The Super, Mega, Huge Big 12 Expansion Thread*****

[Sammy11]

Everything falls on OU and/or ND.

1- If OU wants to commit they have BYU, every remaining Big East school, and every non-aq other than notre dame ready to crawl over glass to join a rebuilt big 12.

2- If ND commits to us, OU becomes far more certain to stay.

 

[weR138]

So what are we worried about again?

Some of us aren't.

 

[Wesley]

Fact:Nebraska was an AAU member when they were accepted.
CyJack assumption: The Big Ten knew they were going to lose their AAU status.

If you want to speak in pure fact, that's fine but you don't get to assume things when I don't get to.

Watching it closely over in Omaha, Nebraska and Big Ten knew they were on their way out of AAU status for three years since they could not count UNMC in Omaha. Theyt were struggling and that was one driver to dip into the Big Ten, bity it did not happen fast enough. As it was even counting UNMC, they do not pull in enough research dollars to be top tier. Typically, ISU has 25 per cent more research dollars.

The NE regents want UNL to grow to 30k to not be so small in Big Ten, but they added only 50 or so additional students this year. The growth appears to be at UNO in Omaha which has now moved their sports to Tier One in bball and hockey.

 

[Istate]

Everything falls on OU and/or ND.

1- If OU wants to commit they have BYU, every remaining Big East school, and every non-aq other than notre dame ready to crawl over glass to join a rebuilt big 12.

2- If ND commits to us, OU becomes far more certain to stay.

ND has zero interest in joining the Big 12. If Baylor wasn't being such a baby, aTm would already be gone and that alone would have greatly increased the likelihood of the Big 12 surviving. Now, their stupid legal threat generated additional uncertainty causing OU to take a more serious look at the PAC. If we're lucky, OU will come back from the ledge. If not, Baylor is in the biggest trouble of any schools currently worried about losing their conference position.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

Well, he might want to do it quick as in the next few months. He may want to wait, but he may have his hand forced. If there are three megaconferences, and Delaney sits at 12 members, that would be stupid on their part. It is rather obvious we are headed to the Big 64 teams and then all the rest.

Agree. If the SEC, ACC, and Pac-12 are set on expanding to 16, it will be very hard for the Big 10 not to expand.
Let us hope the Big 10 thinks they can resist, as if they are last to pick, ISU becomes more appealing.

 

[3GenClone]

Can anyone clarify what needs to happen for remaining conference members to collect exit penalty fees? Correct me if I'm wrong, but when it was 12 teams, did it not require 6 votes to consider the conference dissolved? Now that it's ten would it only require 5? Would this mean that IF Baylor, ISU, KSU, KU, & Mizzou chose to rebuild the conference we'd miss out on exit penalties? What about the remaining Big East members? A "Big Tweast" merger would be great if we could start out with a little cash in our pockets...

I believe there was a few articles about 1000 posts back that said the Big 12 is still viable with only 5 teams. The problem at that point is any one of those 5 leaving, Mizzou being the strongest candidate to make the move to the SEC. If the conference wants to get proactive, they need to invite BYU now. Even if OU, OK State, UT and Tech leave the conference that puts the conference back to 10 teams through at least the 2012-2013 season. Then, if the worst should happen and those four announce they are leaving in the next couple of weeks/months it gives the remaining Big 12 schools the ability to keep the conference viable even if Mizzou leaves or stays.

 

[peteypie]

How exactly is it hard? Its plenty easy... almost everything is combined to a couple threads...

Exactly why realingnment should have it's own topic. I tried looking for a thread that the louisville poster was talking in, and it took me a while. I didn't know if it was off topic, Big 12, or ISU Football.

Also, it would be nice, since I think stuff is about to hit the fan, to have new threads when actual news happens. Instead of searching through the last 20 pages of this massive thread:sad:

 

[Die4Cy]

Agree. If the SEC, ACC, and Pac-12 are set on expanding to 16, it will be very hard for the Big 10 not to expand.
Let us hope the Big 10 thinks they can resist, as if they are last to pick, ISU becomes more appealing.

Why does it make it hard for the B1G to not expand like the others? I may be dense, but I simply do not know why they would have to follow suit with the others going to 14 or 16.

THey do not get to renegotiate TV until 2015. So there is no opportunity to enlarge the revenue pie for its members. Unlike other leagues, there is only one team they have shown they covet, ND, and they have run an unbalanced league scheme for 20 years prior to this year holding a place for them. They are stable and have no threat of losing any team to another league, so adding for stability sake is not a priority. They have no threat of being left out of a national championship conversation if they stand pat. BCS is in charge of bowl games through 2014.

Why do they need to go to 16 now if some others do? I want to understand why people think that.

 

[cykadelic2]

Everything falls on OU and/or ND.

1- If OU wants to commit they have BYU, every remaining Big East school, and every non-aq other than notre dame ready to crawl over glass to join a rebuilt big 12.

2- If ND commits to us, OU becomes far more certain to stay.

Agree.

And if OU and/or ND say no to the B12 (and if the Big Ten does not expand), just take the BE/B12 leftovers and DO NOT add any more existing non-AQ schools with the possible exception of BYU who is the only school that may add sufficient value. There is no need to add existing C-USA or MWC schools and dilute revenue shares of leftover BE/B12 schools.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I believe there was a few articles about 1000 posts back that said the Big 12 is still viable with only 5 teams. The problem at that point is any one of those 5 leaving, Mizzou being the strongest candidate to make the move to the SEC. If the conference wants to get proactive, they need to invite BYU now. Even if OU, OK State, UT and Tech leave the conference that puts the conference back to 10 teams through at least the 2012-2013 season. Then, if the worst should happen and those four announce they are leaving in the next couple of weeks/months it gives the remaining Big 12 schools the ability to keep the conference viable even if Mizzou leaves or stays.

Problem is that you need 8 votes to expand, but only 6 to dissolve.

 

[Wesley]

Im just thinking the Big 10 is not going to get bullied or pushed into making an expansion move. Untill Notre Dame joins a football conference that isn't the Big 10 the Big 10 will keep a spot open for them IMO

That is mainstream thinking, but if suddenly we have three 16 team mega conferences with few pickings left except for KU, ISU and ND, they may change their tune. They may no longer be the big kid on the block after the Joneses moved next door. The ACC16 will be much better in bball and the SEC16 will be much better in fball followwed by Pac 16 and B1G will have academics. Well, people watch sports more than they watch students taking tests on TV. This is all about donor contributrions.

Take a look at the Top 25 teams and see where the money flows.

 

[Wesley]

Nothing new except for this:

But the Big East passed on a television contract that would have put it on the same financial plane as the A.C.C., and must now regret that decision. Big East officials are irate that Pitt led the charge (with Rutgers close behind) to reject that deal, meaning it jeopardized the league’s security in both the short term (by leaving) and in the long term (by helping shoot down a lucrative contract).



Grounds for a major lawsuit? I don't know, but I'd certainly sue if I was UConn or Cincinnati and left on the outside looking in.

Yeah, bottom line the bigger schools all appear to be devious.

 

[Rickybaby]

That is mainstream thinking, but if suddenly we have three 16 team mega conferences with few pickings left except for KU, ISU and ND, they may change their tune. They may no longer be the big kid on the block after the Joneses moved next door. The ACC16 will be much better in bball and the SEC16 will be much better in fball followwed by Pac 16 and B1G will have academics. Well, people watch sports more than they watch students taking tests on TV. This is all about donor contributrions.

Take a look at the Top 25 teams and see where the money flows.

The biggest wildcard is what ND does. Everyone says they will never join a conference. But if all the other teams are wrapped up in super conferences who are interested in playing members of the other superconferences (for TV revenue) ND may be jam. Who are they going to play? Who are they going to play that is significant enough for them to get enough revenue to keep up? They may join whether they want to or not.

 

[isuno1fan]

A thought occurred to me when I was moving teams around in a spreadsheet today, one that makes me think four 16-team conferences may not be as imminent as some think: If OU/OSU/TT/UT go to the PAC-16, who's the SEC's 16th team? Assume WV and MU are 14 and 15 (although Missou would rather be in the B1G). Who does the SEC have left? UConn and Rutgers are awfully far north and are likely to the ACC (or maybe B1G). Most of the Big East remnants duplicate states they already have, and aren't great teams to start with: Louisville, South Florida, TCU. Cincinnati doesn't duplicate, but is that really a school the SEC wants to add? After that, all that's left is pilfering from the ACC (unlikely for a number of reasons) or taking one of the Big XII castoffs.

Anyway.

If they take Mizzou, they would likely consider KU for the rivalry.

 

[GeminiCy]

+1

I believe excluding existing BCS teams from the new upper tier of college football is a huge legal headache the powers that be do not want to have. The compromise? Let all existing BCS teams have a seat at the table. What's funny is, if this indeed happens, all of this conference shuffling will lead to MORE teams in the BCS (or whatever the upper tier will be called) rather than less. Maybe somewhere between 70 and 80.

I think this could be a good compromise, or outcome.

Consider also if you have four 'power' conferences with 16 teams, and a fifth conference with all the 'leftovers' (of whatever size). People have pointed out already how many teams in the big 64 will find they don't like it, in part because they can't compete.

At the same time some in the fifth conference may find far greater success on the field than they ever experienced in the past.

Perhaps the media and 'elite' school bull rush, and tunnel vision on 64, is to prevent precisely this outcome.

 

[Pseudonym]

I feel more and more as if the Big 12 will survive and that I may actually get cable to watch the Big 12 Network.

Here is a post I previously made and think it should be shown again:
Outside of Texas (because of LHN) all schools would reap financially if a tier 3 conference network was created each school would get over $7 million annually. Let me show you my calculations. $.50/month per subscriber in the Big 12 footprint and 8,000,000 households (conservative) and $.10/month per subscriber non Big 12 footprint 20,000,000 households. For each member of the Big 12 this would be $7.2 million per year. This would be in addition to Tier 2 and Tier 1 TV money. The in footprint subscriber amount is half of the Big 10 amount I think and the out of footprint is the same as the Big 10. This also does not include ad/sponsorship revenues. Each school would be looking at a minimum of $20 - $22 million per year in TV money I think starting next year if this were to happen. I think only Texas would see a 'drop' since they would not have the LHN. This would be HUGE for the conference in terms of stability, stature, attractiveness and competitiveness. I would think a BYU, Louisville or South Florida/WVA would find this very attractive and could increase the payouts per school based on new subscribers.

You're not accounting for cost of production at all.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

Why does it make it hard for the B1G to not expand like the others? I may be dense, but I simply do not know why they would have to follow suit with the others going to 14 or 16.

THey do not get to renegotiate TV until 2015. So there is no opportunity to enlarge the revenue pie for its members. Unlike other leagues, there is only one team they have shown they covet, ND, and they have run an unbalanced league scheme for 20 years prior to this year holding a place for them. They are stable and have no threat of losing any team to another league, so adding for stability sake is not a priority. They have no threat of being left out of a national championship conversation if they stand pat. BCS is in charge of bowl games through 2014.

Why do they need to go to 16 now if some others do? I want to understand why people think that.

My contention did not mention the other three conferences stopping at 14. It has nothing to do with an unbalanced league scheme. The Big 10 may prefer to wait until 2014, but only if they want last pick.


The ACC did not need to expand, they were stable, and had just redone their TV deal. The SEC is the most stable, and yet plans to expand. It is about market share (both TV sets and of the NCAA). The Pac-12 grabs the Texas market with programs like OU and UT. The SEC expands into Texas and perhaps another market. The ACC owns the entire east cost and part of the southeast. Look at the past decade of results for the Big 10- it needs new blood.

 

[weR138]

Why does it make it hard for the B1G to not expand like the others? I may be dense, but I simply do not know why they would have to follow suit with the others going to 14 or 16.

THey do not get to renegotiate TV until 2015. So there is no opportunity to enlarge the revenue pie for its members. Unlike other leagues, there is only one team they have shown they covet, ND, and they have run an unbalanced league scheme for 20 years prior to this year holding a place for them. They are stable and have no threat of losing any team to another league, so adding for stability sake is not a priority. They have no threat of being left out of a national championship conversation if they stand pat. BCS is in charge of bowl games through 2014.

Why do they need to go to 16 now if some others do? I want to understand why people think that.

It's a media creation. The B1G expanded because UNL begged them to get in and it made financial sense. The SEC might expand because tammy begged them to let them in and the SEC might like to play in Texas. Their expansion has nothing to do with Larry Scott's desire to get to 16 teams in the Pac and I'll believe Okie Lite and TTU in the Pac when I see it.

Imo the Big XII survives and keeps it's AQ. It will have enough members that were disrespected during relaignmentgeddon to be more unified than it was before.

 

[trevn]

The biggest wildcard is what ND does. Everyone says they will never join a conference. But if all the other teams are wrapped up in super conferences who are interested in playing members of the other superconferences (for TV revenue) ND may be jam. Who are they going to play? Who are they going to play that is significant enough for them to get enough revenue to keep up? They may join whether they want to or not.

*IF* the Texas/Oklahoma four go to the Pac 12, and

*IF* there is a subsequent Big 12/Big East merger with the new conference maintaining their AQ status, then

I could see ND staying independent in football and playing all other sports in the new Big 12/Big East merger.

Did I mention this conference realignment thing is ridiculously crazy?

 

[NobodyBeatsCy]

Does anyone else think that news will surely break as soon as you take your eyes of this thread and twitter?

Uhg!